A scant 96 hours before the first voters go to the polls on Tuesday November 6th, the Labor Department will release October 2012 employment numbers.
While many factors will drive the outcome of the presidential, congressional and down ballot elections this fall, the Employment Situation report will undoubtedly move some late breaking voters towards or away from the president and his party.
When the Labor Department releases the October 2012 employment numbers at 8:30am EDT* on the Friday before election day, final weekend GOTV operations will be in motion across the county, most especially in the critical swing states.
The jobs numbers will either support the emerging economy is improving narrative that has bolstered the president's standing since his numbers bottomed out in the fall. Or it could support the Republicans phony narrative that the economic crisis (aka Bush recession/depression) was caused or exacerbated by various Obama-Democrat actions including ARRA, ACA, crony capitalism, higher taxes, XL pipeline cancellation and a long list of other misdeeds.
While the jobs report will not likely have the full punch of a true October Surprise, there is no question that the campaigns will have prepared a strategy to deal with a variety of possible scenarios.
Though the timing is dicey for both sides, if the current positive trend (positive that is for everyone except hyper-partisan Republicans) extends into summer, a strong October jobs report will seal the deal for enough late breaking independents to make the difference in PA, OH, CO, MI, WI, NM, FL, NV, MO, VA, NC and NH.
A good report will help deliver a second term to President Obama and provide the rising tide (I don't dare call it a wave) that may substantially reverse the 2010 congressional results.
*note: clocks "fall back" on Sunday November 4th