Regardless of what happens this Tuesday in Michigan and Arizona, the prospects for the following week, which include Washington's caucuses on Saturday and the Super Tuesday contests on March 6, are looking foreboding for Sir Mittster.
I respectfully disagree with this suggestion from our esteemed poll watcher, Steve Singiser:
New polling shows the former Massachusetts governor solidifying his lead in Arizona, and quite possibly edging into the lead in Michigan. If those new polls are correct, Tuesday will afford Romney to opportunity to portray himself as "comeback kid." And if that is the story four days from now, a lot of the Super Tuesday polling we have seen may well go out the window.
There's been no indication, throughout this campaign, that Romney is capable of generating the traditional form of "momentum" that has occurred in past primary races. A strong majority of Republican voters and poll respondents has consistently opposed his candidacy, by margins of 30-70 or thereabouts, and that has not changed regardless of whether he has won or lost various states. All that has changed has been the name of the Anti-Romney. I see absolutely no reason to believe that, even if Mitt wins Michigan and Arizona by a few percentage points (but remains well below a majority in both), he will somehow gain significant new support in subsequent contests.
With that in mind, the most recent polls in the Super Tuesday contests paint a very grim picture for Mr. Inevitable.
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Granted, we don't have updated data from all states, and none at all from a couple, but the most recent available indicators tell us the following:
1. Pre-Super Tuesday, Washington State caucuses (43 delegates):
As a precursor to the big day, the most recent poll last week had Santorum with a commanding 38%-27% lead.
2. Now on Super Tuesday, let's first grant Romney his easy wins:
> Massachusetts (41 available delegates)
> Vermont (17 delegates)
> Virginia (49 delegates)
Romney wins the first two as a home-state/New England favorite, and wins Virginia by virtue of being the only one on the ballot, besides Ron Paul. He garners a big chunk of the available delegates (say, about 72/107), but each of these wins is dismissed as either home-state advantage or the fluke of Gingrich and Santorum not qualifying for the Virginia ballot. No real momentum factor here.
3. The two biggest delegate prizes, Romney loses big:
> Georgia (76 delegates): The latest polling shows Gingrich winning his home state with 38%, then Santorum at 25%, and Romney a distant third at 19%. A shellacking for Romney here.
> Ohio (66 delegates), latest polling (as of Feb. 15) showed Santorum leading Romney by a whopping 18 points. That's likely to diminish, but chances are pretty good that Santorum will win the state.
4. Other key states with available, if older, poll results, favor Santorum:
> Tennessee (58 delegates): As of Feb 10, Santorum lead Romney, 34%-27%, with Gingrich at 16% and Paul at 13%. These numbers may have shifted, and Romney could pull this out, but it's not exactly Mitt's stronghold.
> Oklahoma (43 delegates): Santorum has a big lead here, 38.5% to 23% as of 5 days ago. Romney isn't winning this state, period.
4. States that haven't (yet) been polled but still likely to favor Santorum:
> Alaska (27 delegates): Sarah's home turf will almost certainly favor Santorum in its caucuses. Romney has no base in this backwoods bastion.
> Idaho (32 delegates): No polls available, but this is prime Ron Paul territory, where he got 24% of the vote against McCain in 2008, when no one else was on the ballot by then.
> North Dakota (28 delegates): Nobody seems to care enough to poll this state, which only holds a "non-binding caucus," but it seems likely to be fertile anti-Romney territory.
> Wyoming (29 delegates): "County conventions" over a week-long period, too confusing for anyone to pay attention. Maybe Romney gets his share of delegates due to Mormon factor, but they are hard-core wingnuts, so Santorum will do fine, too.
By my very rough estimate, this gives Romney around 186 delegates for the week, Santorum 191, Gingrich 92, and Paul something like 39. Combined, the anti-Romneys continue to deny the Real Romney anything close to a majority of convention delegates. The more important narrative is that Romney would lose virtually every state where he doesn't have a built-in advantage. And with Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi next on the calendar, the string of losses will only continue.
Anyone who thinks that Mitt Romney is still in the driver's seat of this nomination process, even if he wins this Tuesday, is missing the big picture!