At the outset I'll say I don't expect this map to ever happen. First because the legislature has a history of waiting until the very last minute. In the past past they have waited until after a special master has been appointed by the courts to finally pass something. And this year will be no exception.
And this map is just illustrative of the type of things that the legislature fears the courts could do. Downstate I intentionally screwed with Democrats. And upstate I caused a bit of havoc for the Republicans. At least east of Rochester. Chances are the special master would be very careful to protect incumbents and keep lines as intact as possible. Something I went out of my way not to do in many instances.
Of course with two seats gone and every district having it's population sometimes dramatically expanded that can be easier said than done. But I'd expect something along the lines of what I drew in my last diary with western New York looking something like this one.
But the possibility of even one or two of these changes happening is what will in the end produce a deal.
By request I made a lot more larger bigger view maps (something I meant to do for the other diary and never got around to). Set the old crt to max resolution and squinted and did print screens from there. One of these days I'll enter the 21st century and get a much larger lcd monitor.
The big picture maps.
NY-01
Incumbent: Steve Israel (D–Huntington)
2008 numbers: Obama 49.1 McCain 49.8
VPA: White 83.5 Black 3.4 Hispanic 7.9 Asian 4.3 Nat 0.1 Other 0.9
Comment: Long Island is split north/south and Steve Israel is the loser. The reasoning for the split is that the North Shore and South Shore of Suffolk have different characters. Also all heavily minority areas are placed into one district (Bishops) in order to maximize their influence.
Normally I'd say Israel is a popular enough Congressman and especially given his margin of victory in 2010 that he'd be favored. but this is a lot of new territory for him. He also has to not only fight a tough race but also is the head of the DCCC. Does he have enough time or resources to do both well?
NY-02
Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D–Southhampton)
2008 numbers: Obama 56.4 McCain 42.7
VPA: White 64.9 Black 9.7 Hispanic 21.4 Asian 2.4 Nat 0.3 Other 1.2
Comments: Gains a lot more breathing room from his previously highly competitive district. Given that a number of areas in this part of Suffolk are growing and getting more diverse it should stay safe for him.
NY-03:
Incumbent: Peter King (R–Seaford)
2008 numbers: Obama 49.2 McCain 50.0
VPA: White 79.3 Black 3.5 Hispanic 9.9 Asian 6.3 Nat 0.1 Other 0.9
Comments: The two Suffolk districts and Gregory Meeks expansion into Nassau (to help maintain his district's black majority status) sets the parmaters for the district which remains mostly the way it was before. It adds the "Five Towns" area and those communities should be a nice fit for King. Even though King's district comes out a bit more Democratic he still comes out a winner.
NY-04:
Incumbents: Carolyn McCarthy (D–Mineola) and Gary Ackerman (D–Roslyn Heights)
2008 numbers: Obama 54.8 McCain 44.4
VPA: White 59.6 Black 4.2 Hispanic 11.8 Asian 22.1 Nat 0.1 Other 2.1
Comments: A district that won't please McCarthy in the least in that most of her district has been subsumed by Meeks or King. However it also a worrisome district for Ackerman. It adds more voters in Queens and both him and McCarthy would be vulnerable to a third cog challenging them both. Such as for example Rory Lancman who is drawn into the district
It's also a rather weak Democratic district. And if Obama does not show the same strength among wealthy Suburban voters he showed in 2008 perhaps a marginal one. One that will have a bitter and divisive Democratic primary.
Given recent Republican strength in both the Nassau and Queens portion of the district it is one that Democrats should keep an eye on
NY-05:
Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D–Queens)
2008 numbers: Obama 82.9 McCain 16.7
VPA: White 19.4 Black 54.1 Hispanic 18.8 Asian 4.3 Nat 0.3 Other 2.2
Comments: The theory behind this district is that African American voters across the Queens border in Elmont have more in common with African Americans in Queens than they do with say whites in Mineola. And African-American voters in Elmont have considerably much in common with those in Hempstead.
In short if a district can be made that is contiguous and fairly compact that preserves it's VRA status why should it not expand to territory that is literally right next door regardless of county boundaries? Some might argue whether the African-American community in Queens and Nassau can constitute one rather than two separate communities. But it was done in this instance.
The main effect is that it hurts white liberals (such as McCarthy or Ackerman) in NY-04 who'd love to get those minoritiy Nassau voters).
This expansion into Nassau may present some danger to Meeks if there is a Nassau centric challenger.
NY-06:
Incumbent: none
2008 numbers: Obama 69.0 McCain 30.2
VPA: White 33.4 Black 6.3 Hispanic 24.9 Asian 32.1 Nat 0.2 Other 3.0
Comments: Originally I wanted to make a Queens/Brooklyn Latino district. But the contours of the districts around it made it impossible. So instead Nydia gets screwed. Which isn't all that surprising considering there is a long history of Latino's getting the short end of the stick in New York State. Plus given that the Nydia's VRA district got knocked down by the courts there may be reluctance in an incumbent blind redistricting to keep her district around.
This district would present a rare opportunity for a number of Democrats to run for an open seat. First and foremost Rory Lancman whose home in Hillcrest is in neighboring NY-04. Melinda Katz might be someone else. So might John Liu if he feels his mayoral campaign is too hobbled and wants some place else to land.
NY-07:
Incumebnt: Joseph Crowley (D–Queens)
2008 numbers: Obama 81.6 McCain 17.5
VPA: White 33.5 Black 5.0 Hispanic 39.7 Asian 17.7 Nat 0.1 Other 0.9
Comments: I put Crowley here because this is where his house landed. Thus I assume he'd run here. Perhaps more of his district though is in NY-06. If he were to move look for Eric Goia to run. Possible Nydia Velazquez could move here if it was open. Though it would be almost entirely new territory for her.
For the sakes of population balancing a portion of Manhattan around NYU/Langone is added to the district.
NY-08:
Incumbent: Edolphus Towns (D–Brooklyn)
2008 numbers: Obama 93.6 McCain 6.2
VPA: White 10.8 Black 53.3 Hispanic 29.9 Asian 3.6 Nat 0.3 Other 2.0
Comments: Only excitement is the Democratic Primary.
NY-09:
Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D–Brooklyn)
2008 numbers: Obama 92.7 McCain 6.8
VPA: White 25.4 Black 53.4 Hispanic 12.7 Asian 5.9 Nat 0.2 Other 2.0
Comments: Again only excitement is in the primary.
NY-10:
Incumbent: Bob Turner (R–Queens)
2008 numbers: Obama 48.5 McCain 50.8
VPA: White 59.6 Black 6.6 Hispanic 11.5 Asian 15.9 Nat 0.2 Other 4.1
Comments: Bob Turner's district transforms into something he could actually win re-election in though it is not the Super McCain district it could've been. It would be interesting to see who the Democrats would run against him with Rory Lancman drawn out of the district.
NY-11:
Incumbent: Michael Grimm (R–Staten Island)
2008 numbers: Obama 47.3 McCain 52.0
VPA: White 65.3 Black 6.1 Hispanic 14.1 Asian 13.1 Nat 0.1 Other 1.3
Comments: The district moves a bit more Republican with Grimm picking up Boro Park. Assuming none of his friends turns state witness against him he should be favored.
I know the girl putting these vids of Mark out is a Republican hack but I can't resist posting this.
http://www.youtube.com/...
NY-12:
Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez (D–Brooklyn)
2008 numbers: Obama 83.7 McCain 15.3
VPA: White 54.2 Black 4.5 Hispanic 17.4 Asian 21.9 Nat 0.1 Other 1.9
Comments: Nydia could run here. But chances are one of either Carolyn Maloney or Jerry Nadler who got drawn together to the north will move further downtown and run here. Probably Nadler who already represents Wall Street and would be loathe to give up that moneypot.
NY-13:
Incumbents: Jerrold Nadler (D–Manhattan) and Carolyn Maloney (D–Manhattan) and Charles Rangel (D–Manhattan)
2008 numbers: Obama 84.8 McCain 14.4
VPA: White 56.1 Black 16.4 Hispanic 17.5 Asian 8.1 Nat 0.1 Other 1.8
Comments: Yes. I did the unthinkable. I drew Harlem into a white majority district with both Nalder AND Maloney. And since it has been a long time since the district was a VRA black district there is nothing to stop it. Rangel also will not move. He's not giving up his three rent controlled apartments.
Nadler on the other hand I expect will move and clear the race for Maloney.
NY-14:
Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D–Bronx)
2008 numbers: Obama 93.6 McCain 5.9
VPA: White 8.6 Black 23.0 Hispanic 64.3 Asian 2.5 Nat 0.2 Other 1.4
Comments: Based on the district his son represents (and before that he himself represented) in the State Senate I believe this is where Jose Serrano lives.
Charlie Rangel would probably have a better shot against Maloney than Serrano (which doesn't say much). However it is possible State Senator Adriano Espaillat might continue his congressional run against Serrano. But the question is whether there is enough of a base in Northern Manhattan to mount such a run. And there would be more Puerto Ricans in the district like Serrano than Dominicans like Espaillat.
NY-15:
Incumbent: none.
2008 numbers: Obama 86.8 McCain 12.8
VPA: White 14.5 Black 29.6 Hispanic 50.0 Asian 3.9 Nat 0.2 Other 1.8
Comments: One person who has been mentioned as a possibility if a new Latino district emerges in the Bronx is State Senator and noted homophobe Ruben Diaz Sr. Nancy Pelosi would adore him.
NY-16:
Incumbents: Eliot Engel (D–Bronx) and Nita Lowey (D–Harrison)
2008 numbers: Obama 72.1 McCain 27.3
VPA: White 40.7 Black 25.9 Hispanic 26.6 Asian 4.8 Nat 0.2 Other 1.9
Comments: Engel's district usually goes up into Rockland county Instead I kept it in Westchester and drew in Nita Lowey's home in Harrison. There will be tremendous pressure for Nita to move. Though it may not be an easy decision. This district is ridiculously safe whereas the Westchester based district just north of here is trickier though still Democratic.
NY-17:
Incumbent: Nan Hayworth (R–Mount Kisco)
2008 numbers: Obama 56.5 McCain 42.5
VPA: White 73.0 Black 6.9 Hispanic 13.9 Asian 5.0 Nat 0.1 Other 1.1
Comments: While upstate the right Republican might be able to win and hold a 56% Obama district that Republican certainly would not be Nan Hayworth. Instead she'll probably move to the Rockland/Orange county centric NY-18 just as Nita Lowey will probably move into this district.
At 56% this district is probably safe for Nita Lowey but it does cover a lot of new territory she has never represented before including Putname and Dutchess county. She'll actually need to work or else in the wrong year she could suffer the fate Dan Maffei did.
NY-18:
Incumbent: none.
2008 numbers: Obama 52.1 McCain 47.0
VPA: White 69.1 Black 9.9 Hispanic 15.3 Asian 4.2 Nat 0.2 Other 1.4
Comments: This is the western part of Nan Hayworth's old district along with all of Rockland county, the rest of Orange, as well as portions of Ulster (mostly for population balancing reasons). Part of the idea of this district is to have the areas on different sides of the Hudson River separate. This becomes less doable as you move north. Hence why ny-19 is cross-river.
At 52.1 Obama this upstate district is holdable by a Republican. But also capable of being lost. Hayworth has shown herself thus far to be a weak incumbent. If the Democrats can find the right candidate she can be beaten.
NY-19:
Incumbent: Chris Gibson (R–Kinderhook)
2008 numbers: Obama 59.7 McCain 38.6
VPA: White 81.4 Black 8.8 Hispanic 5.6 Asian 2.5 Nat 0.2 Other 1.5
Comments: I am not sure what district Chris Gibson will be running in. But it won't be this one. Paul Tonko will move into this Albany centric district. For population balancing reasons areas of Albany county north and west of the city are not in the district. This is in contrast to every other upstate major city (Ithaca, Syracuse, Buffalo, Rochester) where I tried to keep the county surrounding them as intact as possible.
NY-20:
Incumbent: none
2008 numbers: Obama 53.4 McCain 44.7
VPA: White 88.9 Black 3.1 Hispanic 3.6 Asian 3.6 Nat 0.2 Other 1.3
Comments: Outside of the major areas upstate there is a lot of space. And especially if you are trying to keep counties intact that means districts sprawl. Though in a similar manner to how Hinchey's district also sprawled. This one goes from Ithaca to Schenectady. It would be a swing district that could go either way. Though it all depends whether Obama can do as well upstate this year as he did in 2008.
NY-21:
Incumbent: Bill Owens (D–Plattsburgh)
2008 numbers: Obama 54.9 McCain 43.3
VPA: White 89.1 Black 4.1 Hispanic 3.3 Asian 2.6 Nat 0.2 Other 2.2
Comments: This district looks like a more norhernly version of Gibson's and is where I actually expect him to run. It'll be easier than NY-19. But not all that much. Bill Owens has proven himself a resilient (even if lucky) incumbent. And at 54.9 Obama is right at that magic 55 number where Democrats want to be upstate.
The edge between ny-19, ny-20, and ny-21 is messier than I'd like with counties being split. Both population balancing as well as keeping the large towns and cities of the empire region intact made it a sad necessity.
NY-22:
Incumbents: Richard Hanna (R–Barneveld) and Paul Tonko (D–Amsterdam)
2008 numbers: Obama 48.3 McCain 50.1
VPA: White 89.8 Black 3.7 Hispanic 3.4 Asian 1.4 Nat 0.8 Other 0.9
Comments: Paul Tonko will move and Richard Hanna will easily win this cleaner and more northernly district. That is unless Hanna gets a republican primary challenge. After all Republican Santa Doug Hoffman I believe is now in Hanna's district.
NY-23:
Incumbent: Ann Marie Buerkle (R–Syracuse)
2008 numbers: Obama 56.6 McCain 41.5
VPA: White 86.7 Black 6.5 Hispanic 2.7 Asian 2.2 Nat 0.7 Other 1.2
Comments: Everyone's favorite accidental congresswoman only enhances her status as Dan Maffei roadkill. The district moves up to Oswego County rather than jutting out to Rochester.
NY-24:
Incumbent: Tom Reed (R–Corning)
2008 numbers: Obama 45.4 McCain 53.0
VPA: White 92.8 Black 2.5 Hispanic 2.3 Asian 0.7 Nat 0.8 Other 0.9
Comments: I wanted to divide ny-24 and ny-26 which are the "mopping up the areas not with Buffalo or Rochester districts" east and west or north and south. But both orientations ended up proving too difficult. Particularly since I wanted not to divide too many counties. Then again in ny-26 I ended up splitting 5.
This district should be quite safe for Tom Reed.
NY-25:
Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D–Fairport)
2008 numbers: Obama 58.6 McCain 40.1
VPA: White 76.0 Black 13.2 Hispanic 6.0 Asian 3.3 Nat 0.2 Other 1.3
Comments: Almost all of Monroe County in one district. Slaughter should be safe and happy. However once her time comes to retire the big question is how much population will Rochester continue to atrophy and how will that affect the districts demographics? We may not like this seat as much in 2020 as we do in 2012.
NY-26:
Incumbent: Kathy Hochul (D–Snyder)
2008 numbers: Obama 48.2 McCain 50.2
VPA: White 90.0 Black 4.1 Hispanic 2.2 Asian 1.8 Nat 0.5 Other 0.9
Comments: Denied the opportunity to feed on Buffalo voters this district grows dramatically into the wastelands of Western New York. In a non-presidential year Hotchul probably falls.
NY-27:
Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D–Buffalo)
2008 numbers: Obama 59.6 McCain 38.8
VPA: White 78.1 Black 14.4 Hispanic 4.1 Asian 3.1 Nat 0.4 Other 1.0
Comments: Like NY-25 the incumbent is safe and the only concern is how much population is Buffalo going to continue to lose. I expanded more south than north in Eire. Going north would up the Democratic nature of the district.
Conclusion:
Just to re-emphasize this is in no way a prediction of what the courts will do. It actually is a very good bet they won't produce this map or anything close it it. My main goal was to illustrate just how much subtle gerrymandering there is and how small changes can have big consequences. Like for example not having Engel go into Rockland County. Or not being careful how you draw a number of incumbents such as Ackerman and McCarthy or Nadler, Maloney, and Rangel who live practically right next to each other.
New York has a tradition of waiting until a special master has been appointed to finally pass their maps. And they probably will this time as well. Rumor is the big holdup is still Rangel's district. That they make a last minute deal may or may not be a good thing. Some rumors I heard such as making Turner's district more Republican so it's "fairer" to him make me wonder whether perhaps we might be better off with this map after all. But rumors are rumors and the source a lot of the time is some legislative aide rather than the leadership or someone who actually knows. We can only hope that the State Assembly will try to have our back. If you think Cuomo will I've got a bridge to sell you. Though come to think of it.. if it's one of the bridges on Staten Island you should buy... the amount you can charge for tolls is jaw dropping.