It's unclear whether this would qualify as a "game changer", but we have our second poll in a week that shows Mitt Romney with only a marginal lead over Barack Obama ... in Tennessee. As in, the mid-Southern state lost by the Democrats in 2008 by 15 freaking points. As in, the state where Democrats lost three seats in the House and the governor's race by over 30 points in 2010.
Very, very strange. We also get some early Super Tuesday numbers, but it might be worth waiting a few days to see what (if anything) is altered by Mitt Romney's "momentum" inducing performance last night in Michigan and Arizona.
GOP PRIMARY:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 33, Santorum 25, Gingrich 16, Paul 11
GEORGIA (SurveyUSA): Gingrich 39, Santorum 24, Romney 23, Paul 9
NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac): Romney 38, Santorum 24, Paul 12, Gingrich 9
OHIO (Univ. of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll): Santorum 37, Romney 26, Gingrich 16, Paul 11
TENNESSEE (Middle Tennessee State Univ.): Santorum 40, Romney 19, Gingrich 13, Paul 11
GENERAL ELECTION:
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (45-44); Obama d. Santorum (46-43)
GEORGIA (SurveyUSA): Romney d. Obama (49-42); Gingrich d. Obama (48-44); Santorum d. Obama (47-43); Paul d. Obama (46-43)
NEW JERSEY (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (49-39); Obama d. Santorum (52-34); Obama d. Gingrich (55-30)
TENNESSEE (Middle Tennessee State Univ.): Santorum d. Obama (51-39); Romney d. Obama (47-41); Gingrich d. Obama (45-41); Paul d. Obama (44-41)
VIRGINIA (Roanoke College): Romney d. Obama (43-42); Obama d. Santorum (45-39); Obama d. Paul (45-35); Obama d. Gingrich (48-37)
WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (47-42); Obama d. Santorum (46-41)
A few thoughts, just past the jump.
When I posted the Vanderbilt Poll in Tennessee earlier this week, I noted that Vandy has been bullish for Obama throughout the cycle thus far, and therefore the rosy result for the president in the Volunteer State needed a little confirmation. Lo and behold, here comes MTSU to offer a little confirmation. In an apples-to-apples comparison, there is some meaning to the six-point Romney-Obama margin, since a late October MTSU poll gave Mitt Romney a fifteen-point edge (44-29). I still think Tennessee is probably a long enough shot that it probably won't get a ton of attention in November, but the narrow margin does raise at least one eyebrow.
Meanwhile, Rasmussen is back to being Rasmussen: they are basically the only pollster with Romney out in front of the president nationally (even Gallup came off that particular island earlier this week). Furthermore, they have Wisconsin relatively close, which is quite a bit different from where Marquette Law School had it last week, and I am going to hazard a guess (based on their VERY different Senate numbers) that Rasmussen's poll in the Badger State isn't going to resemble PPP's release later in the week.
The smattering of Super Tuesday polls tell us that Rick Santorum may well have life in him yet, though we are certainly well inoculated to the phenomenon of wild poll swings at this point. Therefore, even if he looks pretty good now, at this stage of this cycle you almost have to reserve judgment until a little closer to the contests.
In terms of media punditry, this has to be one of Romney's best days in months. The veneer of inevitability is starting to reappear, but next Tuesday is still a long, long way away.
After all, Newt Gingrich went from ascendant to irrelevant in exactly this much time at the end of January. Romney might be better equipped to make it to Super Tuesday in healthy shape than Gingrich was before Florida, but if this cycle has taught us anything, it is that Republican voters have exceptionally shallow loyalties this year. To close this edition of the Wrap with an utterly overused phrase: stay tuned.