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• WI-Sen: We saw quite a bunch of this in 2010, including in Wisconsin, so I'm not surprised to see this sort of thing surfacing again this cycle: teabaggish anti-pork Republicans whose business interests accepted the very sort of government assistance they hotly rail against on the campaign trail. This time, it's ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, whose solar energy company received $80,000 in grants from the dreaded 2009 stimulus package.
Of course Neumann, whose 2010 gubernatorial campaign focused extensively on his opposition for the stimulus, has an excuse: He's trying to claim the money came as the result of a Bush-era program. But the problem (for him) is that the stimulus bill specifically changed the Bush system so that funds were awarded as an up-front grant, instead of making companies wait to receive them as a tax credit. Even better, a different solar company run by Neumann (how many freaking companies does this guy have?) sent a letter to Congress urging it to maintain the program—and specifically cited President Obama's change to the timing of when money is disbursed as a key merit in its favor. If Neumann's rivals for the GOP nomination can't make hay of this, then they are serious incompetent.
Senate:
• NE-Sen: Sen. Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund is out with a poll from Basswood Research showing their guy, Treasurer Don Stenberg, back just six points behind the nominal frontrunner, AG Jon Bruning, 32 to 26. Basswood says that in June, Bruning had a 23-point lead. That would be a big leap for Stenberg: In PPP's most recent poll (from October), he trailed Bruning 37-16.
• NM-Sen, NM-01: It's never good when you have to deny rumors that you're dropping out of a race because your fundraising sucks and you lag in the polling, but it's even worse when it's your own damn fault that you've found yourself in that position. The Hotline's Reid Wilson reports that Lt. Gov. John Sanchez is trying to silence talk that he might bail on his bid for the Senate GOP nomination (where he's long trailed ex-Rep. Heather Wilson)—but the reason he's been forced to do so is because one of his staffers, on the record, told a local paper that Sanchez was thinking about switching to the race for the open 1st Congressional District. I actually hope this move doesn't happen, since Sanchez would probably be more credible than any of the Republicans lined up so far in the House contest, so good luck with the Senate race, buddy!
• PA-Sen, PA-12: Ex-cellent... Mr. Burns has discovered that money can't always buy political success. Having lost out on the Pennyslvania state GOP's endorsement (to fellow wealthy businessman Steven Welch), Tim Burns soldiered on for a few more days but now has dropped out of the Senate field. That still leaves Welch with another rich SW PA resident to get past in the primary, though: former coal company owner Tom Smith. It also raises another question: Will Burns drop down to PA-12 (where he'd still have to face 2010 PA-04 loser Keith Rothfus in the GOP primary)? It's a race he's been encouraged by local power brokers to take up, but one he's already lost twice before to Dem Mark Critz. (David Jarman)
• TX-Sen: Jason Gibson, a former President of the Houston Trial Lawyers Association, is bowing out of the Senate race and throwing his support to fellow Democrat Paul Sadler, a former state representative.
Gubernatorial:
• NC-Gov, NC-02: Former Rep. Bob Etheridge, who lost a bid for an eighth term in 2010, says he's entering the race for governor. He joins state Rep. Bill Faison and Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton in the Democratic primary, though several other potential candidates are still weighing the race. As for the 70-year-old Etheridge, prior to his tenure in the House, he served two terms as the North Carolina Superintendent of Public Instruction, a statewide elected position. Etheridge had also been considering a rematch against GOP freshman Renee Ellmers, the woman who beat him last cycle, but with his decision to seek the governor's mansion, Ellmers is probably home free now.
Elsewhere in the Democratic world, former White House chief-of-staff Erskine Bowles put out a statement on Thursday saying he won't seek the Democratic gubernatorial nod. But Rep. Brad Miller said explicitly for the first time that he's "thinking very hard" about a bid.
House:
• CA-24: Check out this scam that former Republican Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado, who is hoping to unseat Dem Rep. Lois Capps, has been running:
On June 30, records show, Maldonado loaned his campaign $250,000. It boosted his cash on hand for the campaign period that ended the same day. On July 1, after the reporting period ended, the campaign paid him back.
On Sept. 30, the end of the next reporting period, Maldonado again loaned his campaign $250,000. On Oct. 1, the campaign paid him back. On Dec. 30, Maldonado again loaned his campaign $250,000. He will report April 15 whether this was immediately paid back.
"It's a game; that has no reality," Capps' campaign consultant, Bill Carrick, said in an interview Wednesday. "He's not raising real money."
Maldonado's spokesman Brandon Gesicki calls the short-term loans a public commitment by the candidate to spend money on the campaign; the money is invested to earn interest until it's needed for campaign purposes, Gesicki says.
That is some serious bullsh*t-peddling right there. Glad that Capps and the local press are on to this. Maldonado should be made to pay a price for these shenanigans.
• CO-04: Well, after all that sturm und drang, Colorado state Senate President Brandon Shaffer won't jump ship to the more favorable 6th CD and will instead continue his uphill challenge in the 4th. I'm a little surprised, given how inhospitable the redrawn 4th District is to a Democrat (Obama got just 42% here), but Shaffer would have had to deal with a Democratic primary against state Rep. Joe Miklosi and self-funding physician Perry Haney. Miklosi's fundraising hasn't been strong (just $104K last quarter and $231K overall), but Haney's looming millions may have made the race just a fridge too far. At the time Shaffer was considering a switch, he was reportedly polling his options, so I guess he must nevertheless think he has a shot at unseating GOP freshman Cory Gardner.
• NC-11: Reversing course from prior statements, Dem Rep. Heath Shuler says he will retire at the end of this term. Even though a Shuler spokesman said in July that his boss was "running for reelection in 2012," Shuler's own public statements suggested that his heart wasn't into it, so his decision does not come as a huge shock. In any event, his departure turns this seat, which would have been a difficult hold to begin with thanks to successful GOP efforts to made it much redder in redistricting, into a very likely pickup for Republicans. Click the link for our full post at Daily Kos Elections, including a look at the GOP field.
• NY-13: This is so thin I almost don't want to link to it, but the Staten Island Advance says, very off-handedly, that Democratic Assemblyman Michael Cusick is "looking seriously" at the race thanks to allegations of serious fundraising misdeeds on the part of GOP freshman Mike Grimm. But here's the thing: Cusick has been cited by the Great Mentioner for this seat for years... and what's more, in the same sentence, the Advance also include ex-Rep. Mike McMahon. But no one has been able to get a single quote out of McMahon, and everyone's just been assuming he's still thinking about a comeback bid (even though he raised $0 last quarter). So I'm skeptical that anything new is in the works here... but we'll see.
• NY-23: It's been a long time since anyone's caught up with Doug Hoffman, the guy who twice split the right-wing vote by running as a third-party candidate in New York's 23rd CD, allowing Bill Owens to become the first Democrat to represent the full area covered by the district since the 19th century in 2009 and to hold on to that seat in 2010. But Hoffman's still saying the same thing he did last June: He hasn't made up his mind and is waiting on the outcome of redistricting. Sadly, I don't see him having much success this time: Republican Matt Doheny has been running full steam ahead and even managed to outraise Owens this past quarter, $306K to $213K. Plus, as the article notes, local party leaders who had been supporters of Hoffman in prior years are deserting him in favor of Doheny. We'll miss you, Doug!
• OR-01: In the aftermath of Democrat Suzanne Bonamici's big win in the 1st District special election on Tuesday, Blue Oregon's Kari Chisholm takes Bob Moore, the pollster for Republican Rob Cornilles, to the woodshed over his wildly inaccurate results. A Moore internal taken just three weeks before election showed Cornilles trailing by just four points, even though Bonamici went on to win by more than 14. But Kari's not done there, not at all. He takes us on a tour of other off-base polls put out by Moore in recent years, best of all his 2010 polling for Jim Huffman (yeah, who?). If you aren't familiar with that episode, I don't want to spoil the surprise, so click through for Kari's full run-down. The bottom line, as Kari puts it: "[I]t seems to me that serious journalists shouldn't bother listening to Bob Moore's nonsense." Word.
While we're on the topic, I'll point out that Cornilles has now lost two elections for Oregon's 1st Congressional District in less than two years, yet he's apparently still thinking about a third go-round this November. The AP says Cornilles "wants to spend time with his family before deciding." The only possible reason to even consider another try is because the seat was made slightly redder in redistricting (Tuesday's special election was held under the old lines)—but it's still very blue, at 60% Obama. What's more, Bonamici proved herself to be a strong campaigner, and there's no way the D-Trip would fail to step in if she looked like she lacked sufficient resources. So really, I can't see the point.
• WA-01: VoteVets, a Democratic group that supports war veterans, just gave their endorsement to state Sen. Steve Hobbs, who on economic issues is by far the most conservative Democrat in the race but is also a member of the Army Reserves. (If you aren't familiar with VoteVets, they were responsible for this justifiably famous "body armor" ad in 2006, which I think is one of the best political ads of all time.)
Grab Bag:
• Senate Fundraising: The good folks at CQ-Roll Call have put together an extremely handy chart of all Senate fundraising numbers released to date. (This also brings to a close our daily 4Q roundups at the top of each digest.) While the filing deadline for all federal campaigns was Tuesday, the Senate, as you may know, still uses an insane procedure that was antiquated even last century: Reports are sent in hardcopy to the FEC and then scanned... even though the House has long relied on electronic filing, and even though (obviously) every Senate campaign uses some kind of software application to prepare their filings.
To call this "dumb" is an insult to stupid people... and what it means is that there's a lag between when filings are made and when they become publicly available. Most campaigns publicize their numbers by or before the deadline anyway, but some don't... and in any event, it's a lot of work to try to assemble all the figures in one place, because you have to rely on press releases and the like, rather than one single source. So thanks to CQ-Roll Call for putting in the effort on this one. (Relatedly, our own House fundraising chart will be ready soon.)
Redistricting Roundup:
• CA Redistricting: Awesome. New fundraising reports show that the California GOP has all but bankrupted itself thanks to its all-but-doomed effort to put the state's new Senate map on the ballot for a referendum. A separate committee specifically created to further this project has $214K in debts outstanding... and $620.31 in the bank. Meanwhile, state Dems are very flush. Click through for the full numbers at Calitics.
• KS Redistricting: The committee in the Kansas state Senate just passed a new congressional map, and it's instantly led to a serious cat fud fight. As we've discussed recently, there's a serious cleavage in Kansas between "moderate" Republicans and their "conservative" brethren, who almost operate as separate parties. It looks like the moderates prevailed in getting their preferred redistricting plan, which led the chair of the state GOP to hilariously accuse fellow Republicans that their work "appears to be a coldly calculated attempt to create a Democrat 2nd Congressional District to the detriment of the dean of our congressional delegation." (The "dean," by the way, is Rep. Lynn Jenkins, who has served in Congress for all of three years.) The local chamber of commerce went berserk, too.
The reality, though, is that the new plan barely budges the needle. Based on voter registration numbers, the 2nd would go from 42 R, 29 D, 29 I to 40R-30D-30I. Not exactly a major change! Now, it's true that this map does the opposite of what Jenkins had hoped for: She wanted the full city of Lawrence (currently split between the 2nd and 3rd Districts) moved into fellow Republican Kevin Yoder's 3rd; legislators instead moved it entirely into Jenkins' 2nd. But the move hardly screws her. And though Democrats did manage to win this seat for a single term in 2006, that was the result of a remarkable wave election and an unusual confluence of circumstances—something not likely to be repeated any time soon. So Jenkins doesn't have much to fear, but the real question now is whether the full Senate—and the state House (where the conservatives have much more sway)—will go along.
• KY Redistricting: We've heard this before, so I'll believe it when I see it, but state House Speaker Greg Stumbo is saying that Democrats are very close to a deal with Republicans on congressional redistricting. You can read about the supposed details at the link.
• NY Redistricting: Well, at least Dem Gov. Andrew Cuomo is sticking with his threat to veto the new proposed legislative maps, which are an utter abomination. Said Cuomo: "They are hyperpolitical and hyperpartisan. The plans are wholly unacceptable as written." Sort of weird that we're on the same side as the goo-goos now, but a Cuomo veto is really the only thing that can save us.
• RI Redistricting: There wasn't much drama to it, but Rhode Island legislators in both chambers passed the state's new legislative and congressional maps. Pretty much all the action took place late last year, when RI's redistricting commission drew up new plans (and wound up on the receiving end of accusations that their foremost goal was to shore up freshman Dem David Cicilline). The commission's decisions weren't binding on the lege, but it doesn't seem like anyone had the appetite to make further changes, so the panel's final proposals have carried the day. The only remaining question is whether independent Gov. Lincoln Chafee will sign the maps. He hasn't said whether he will, though even if he vetoes, lawmakers can easily over-ride.
• TX Redistricting: The court hearing the Texas preclearance case in Washington, DC just posted a little note on its case docket saying it "does not anticipate issuing any order within the next 30 days." That leaves the court in San Antonio, which is (once again) tasked with drawing interim maps, in a serious bind, with the primary looming on April 3. Michael Li says the San Antonio panel could try to anticipate what the DC judges will do and hurry out maps in time for a primary somewhat later in April, but if they choose to wait on the preclearance case to get resolved, there's almost no way the primary wouldn't get pushed into May or beyond.
• WA Redistricting (PDF): Washington uses an independent commission for redistricting, but the legislature may make minor changes to the map as long as they pass by a supermajority. (Since the Dems don't hold a supermajority, this means that any changes are going to be uncontroversial and truly minor.) That's exactly what the legislature did this week, passing the basic plan that the commission unveiled at year's end but making some very marginal changes (including changes to six of the state's ten congressional districts... but always involving only a few census blocks). (David Jarman)
