I read Rory Lancman's gearing up to run in NY-09 (http://www.nytimes.com/... ) and being so certain.. But I was thinking. For awhile we've been assuming NY-09 gets the axe. And even before that most maps altered the district. It's a weird gerrymandered thing that due to population shifts almost seems a natural to take on a new shape. Even if Weiner had remained.
So I thought I'd draw a map actually keeping it's general shape. I also drew a non-incumbent protection status quo map. Well not quite. I do some trading. Gibson and Hanna gain a little as does Owens in return. Though none of them are completely safe. Tom Reed has to gain in order to accomodate three Democratic Western(?) New York districts.
That is not actually a trade so much as whereas McCarthy and Ackerman seats are merged to make one Democratic seat, the Republican seat eliminated is actually Hotchul's who gets a seat comparable to Hinchey's.
It may not seem like a fair plan in that you were losing two Democratic congressman. Hinchey and either Ackerman or McCarthy. But the status quo map keeps Turner and Buerkle's Democratic numbers way up and both are good bets to go Democratic. And Hayworth and Grimm both have potentially swingy districts. Then again so does Bishop.
As a note. I'm using the numbers for the old district lines as generated by DRA. These numbers are not completely accurate and seem in a lot of close districts to underperform Obama's numbers by a point or two. But I used them anyway since wikipedia doesn't have numbers for every district so this keeps things consistent for each race. Especially since the drop is less about being "inacurrate" than just not getting the lines completely exact.
In case any of you want to play with what I've done a link to the drf file.
http://www.mediafire.com/...
NY-01: Tim Bishop (D–Southhampton) - Old NY-01
Blue
Old 2008 - Obama: 51.4 McCain: 47.6
New 2008 - Obama: 52.1 McCain 46.9
Old VAP - White: 80.0, Black: 4.3, Hispanic:11.2, Asian 3.3. Nat: 0.2, Other 1.0
New VAP - White: 79.2, Black: 4.4, Hispanic:11.6, Asian 1.4 Nat: 0.2, Other 1.0
![](http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/5299/ny01bishop.th.jpg)
Comments: Originally I was going to beaf up Bishop and declare it an exchange for also beefing up Peter King. The map was a mess similar to my other Long Island gerrymands. But I decided to clean things up for no other reason than if Grimm's numbers are being kept static why shouldn't Bishop's? After all is it a fair exchange if King is in absolutely no conceivable danger anyway?
Obama numbers are the same and though favored he'll still have to fight for his seat in 2012.
NY-02: Steve Israel (D–Huntington) - Old NY-02
Green
Old Obama - Obama 56.1 McCain 43.1
New Obama - Obama 56.1 McCain 43.1
Old VAP - White: 65.4, Black 9.4, Hispanic: 19.3, Asian: 4.5, Nat: 0.1, Other: 1.0
New VAP - White: 64.1, Black 10.2, Hispanic: 19.2, Asian: 5.1, Nat: 0.1, Other 1.0
![](http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/1121/ny02israel.th.jpg)
Comments: I made the decision to try to get Meeks as close to 50% African-American as possible. That meant King had to pull out of north Nassau and maximize south Nassau Republicans. Thus I had to make things a bit more ugly (though fairly similar) for Israel to avoid losing any ground. Particularly since he took in Smithtown to give Bishop a little bit of an assist.
Israel is firmly entrenched and should stay safe.
NY-03: Peter King (R–Seaford) - Old NY-03
Dark Purple
Old Obama - 47.2, McCain 51.9
New Obama - 45.4, McCain 53.8
Old VAP - White: 82.3, Black: 2.7, Hispanic: 9.1, Asian: 4.8, Nat: 0.1, Other: 1.0
New Vap - White: 81.9, Black: 2.6, Hispanic: 9.3, Asian: 5.1, Nat: 0.1, Other 1.0
![](http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/1055/ny03king.th.jpg)
Comments: See above. Needs of the others around him dictated him getting more south Nassau Republicans. His numbers can be brought down by taking in Nassau or even Queens African-American voters In terms of aesthetics at least this was the better choice. And King is not going down either way.
NY-04: Carolyn McCarthy (D–Mineola) & Gary Ackerman (D–Roslyn Heights) - Old NY 4&5
Orange
Old NY-4 Obama -58.0, McCain: 41.3
Old NY-5 Obama - 63.1, McCain 36.1
New Obama - Obama: 59.1, McCain: 40.2
Old NY-4 VAP - 54.8, Black 18.2, Hispanic: 18.7, Asian: 6.7, Nat: 0.1, Other: 1.5
Old NY-5 VAP - White: 37.0, Black: 4.2, Hispanic: 24.1, Asian: 33.0, Nat: 0.1 Other: 1.7
New VAP - White: 58.5, Black: 11.7, Hispanic: 15.6, Asian: 12.8, Nat: 0.1, Other: 1.4
![](http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/5891/ny04mcackefyman.th.jpg)
Comments: A perfect amalgam of the hearts of McCarthy and Ackerman's district. With an advantage probably going to McCarthy though the winner might end up being who can pick up Israel and King Democrats in the Republican northeastern part of the district.
NY-05: Gregory Meeks (D–Queens) - Old NY-06
Yellow
Old Obama - 88.8, McCain: 10.9
New Obama - 85.0, McCain: 14.6
Old VAP - White: 11.2, Black: 49.4, Hispanic: 18.2, Asian: 13.2, Nat: 0.5, Other: 7.5
New VAP - White: 16.1, Black: 48.4, Hispanic: 15.9, Asian: 13.4, Nat: 0.4, Other: 5.8
![](http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/9748/ny05meeks.th.jpg)
Comments: With Queens African-Americans maximized, the need to add voters, and a shifting demographics the challenge is to avoid losing too much ground never mind getting the VAP above 50. I added two neighboring towns in Nassau that were majority African-American to help. That is not to say it isn't impossible to reach 50. You could dive into Hempstead. But that presents all types of complications. And I wanted to make the fight between Ackerman and McCarthy somewhat fair.
NY-06: Joseph Crowley (D–Queens) - Old NY-7
Teal
Old Obama - Obama: 79.1, McCain: 20.3
New Obama - Obama: 76.1, McCain: 23.0
Old VAP - White: 22.9, Black: 16.4, Hispanic: 42.1, Asian: 16.4, Nat: 0.2, Other: 2.1
New VAP - White: 38.4, Black: 7.8, Hispanic: 25.5, Asian: 26.1, Nat: 0.1, Other: 2.1
![](http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/8264/ny06crowley.th.jpg)
Comments: Originally I had Crowley taking very little of western Queens and rampaging through the Bronx. Then I noticed how high a percentage of his district now was in the Bronx and how high his Hispanic VAP was. Not only was the Chair of the Queens Democratic Party now vulnerable to a primary challenge but also forced to go hat in hand to beg for support for the Bronx Democratic Party. And come the next 10 years things only get worse.
So I redid the map with Maloney tossed out of Queens (and the part of Brooklyn I planned on giving her) and it all goes to Crowley who is now truly "King of Queens." However population still dictates that he'll need to go into the Bronx where he picks up mostly conservative white areas such as City Island.
NY-07: Nydia Velazquez (D–Brooklyn) - Old NY-12
Grey
Old Obama: Obama: 86.0, McCain: 13.1
New Obama: Obama: 80.3, McCain 19.0
Old VAP: White 30.0, Black: 8.0, Hispanic: 41.3, Asian: 18.7, Nat: 0.2, Other 1.9
New VAP: White 21.0, Black: 6.3, Hispanic: 50.2, Asian: 21.0, Nat: 0.1, Other 1.5
![](http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/2960/ny12nydia1.th.jpg)
![](http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/4863/ny12nydia2.th.jpg)
![](http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/4765/ny12nydia3.th.jpg)
Comments: This is the most risky part. Splitting the district (with "water contiguity") to offload white liberals so the district can become more Queens centric. Given the district has already come under supreme court scrutiny for racial gerrymandering it may not even be legal. Though perhaps it can under the name of incumbent protection.
Of course there is one small problem. It does not necessarily protect Nydia. Even though Nydia probably wouldn't mind being more in Queens and less in Vito Lopez' crosshairs does she really want that many new voters when she is sure to face a Vito Lopez backed challenge from City Councilman Erik Dilan... particularly when the center of gravity of the district is now very firmly in the part he represents? And Nydia is well liked by the white liberals who are being axed.
Not that the assembly should be that concerned about that. Brooklyn Democratic party Chair Vito Lopez is in the state Assembly that draws districts. Erik Dilan's dad is in the State Senate.
But it should be pointed out that Nydia is an incumbent and an icon within her community. She should be favored even if she if the legislature decides to force her to move to a different part of the district. On the other hand Vito Lopez has many reformist scalps on his wall.
NY-08: Bob Turner (R–Queens) - Old NY-09
Light Purple
Old Obama - 55.3, McCain: 43.9
New Obama - 57.6, McCain: 41.6
Old VAP - White: 58.7, Black: 4.4, Hispanic: 15.9, Asian:18.6, Nat: 0.1, Other: 2.2
New VAP - White: 54.0, Black: 5.5, Hispanic: 18.1, Asian: 18.6, Nat: 0.2, Other: 3.6
![](http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/6545/ny08turner.th.jpg)
Comments: Ackerman or McCarthy lose their seat for this. A district for Rory Lancman. The seat ticks about 2 points Democratic. Some of it is that you have THREE minority seats surrounding it which sets it's parameters for good or bad. But a lot of it is the district needs to grow population. If Turner is REALLY as strong as the special election indicated this should be no problem for him as there are still plenty of Orthodox Jews and Russians. But back in the real world Turner is toast either way.
Republicans will probably insist on some minor changes to up the orthodox vote in Brooklyn.
NY-09: Ed Towns (D–Brooklyn) - Old NY-10
Aqua
Old Obama - 91.0, McCain: 8.7
New Obama - 84.0, McCain: 15.7
Old VAP - White 17.6, Black: 59.5, Hispanic: 16.7, Asian: 4.0, Nat: 0.3, Other: 2.1
new VAP - White 22.4, Black: 50.5, Hispanic: 16.8, Asian: 6.0, Nat: 0.2, Other: 2.1
Comments: Only suspense is whether Towns can sleepwalk into another term.
![](http://img535.imageshack.us/img535/7340/ny09towns.th.jpg)
NY-10: Yvette Clarke (D–Brooklyn) - Old NY-11
Magenta
Old Obama - Obama: 90.5, McCain: 9.0
New Obama - Obama: 84.5, McCain: 15.1
Old VAP - White: 26.6, Black: 53.0, Hispanic: 12.5, Asian: 5.5, Nat: 0.2, Other: 2.2
New VAP - White: 26.1, Black: 52.4, Hispanic: 11.4, Asian: 7.9, Nat: 0.2, Other: 2.1
![](http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/5985/ny10clarke.th.jpg)
Comments: Both African-American majority districts saw a drop in their VAP simply because they already had their African-American population maximized and needed to grow. They also cleaned up Orthodox voters. In Clarke's case Boro Park voters once owned by Nadler.
NY-11: Michael Grimm (R–Staten Island) - Old NY-13
Neon Green
Old Obama - Obama: 48.7, McCain: 50.5
New Obama - Obama: 50.5, McCain: 48.7
Old VAP - White: 65.2, Black: 6.2, Hispanic: 14.1, Asian: 13.1, Nat: 0.1, Other: 1.3
New VAP - White: 63.0, Black: 7.5, Hispanic: 14.9, Asian: 13.1, Nat: 0.1, Other: 1.3
![](http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/7259/ny11grimm.th.jpg)
Comments: Only needed a map for the Brooklyn part of the district as the Staten Island part remained obviously unchanged. Grimm's Obama numbers ticked up a little bit. But in losing orthodox Jews he lost voters who went for McCain but whom more than half voted for McMahon and gained Itallian voters who may have voted for Obama but would be open to voting for Grimm. Given his fundraising scandal involving a man accused of robbing an Orthodox synaogue perhaps the Orthodox Jews may not necessarily have been as supportive as he might have previously assumed anyway. So I'd say the map is a wash.
McMahon probably would've won this district in 2010. But this district should still favor Grimm in 2012. That however is not to say it won't be competitive.
NY-12: Jerrold Nadler (D–Manhattan) - Old NY-08
Light Blue
Old Obama - Obama: 73.7, McCain: 25.3
New Obama - Obama: 85.5, McCain: 13.5
Old VAP - White: 67.1, Black: 4.5, Hispanic: 11.3, Asian: 15.2, Nat: 0.1, Other: 1.8
New VAP - White: 62.6, Black: 5.9, Hispanic: 13.8, Asian: 15.5, Nat: 0.1, Other: 2.0
![](http://img803.imageshack.us/img803/8413/ny12nadler1.th.jpg)
![](http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/3314/ny12nadler2.th.jpg)
![](http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/4996/ny12nadler3.th.jpg)
Comments: Swaps out Boro Park for white liberals in Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights. Even though he won't like losing some of Manhattan to Maloney it is a good map for him. Not that he needs much help since he has absolutely no chance of losing.
NY-13: Carolyn Maloney (D–Manhattan) - Old NY-14
Tan
Old Obama - Obama: 78.2, McCain: 20.8
New Obama - Obama: 79.2, McCain: 20.0
Old VAP - White: 67.0, Black: 4.4, Hispanic: 13.0, Asian: 13.4, Nat: 0.1, Other: 2.0
New VAP - White: 59.1, Black: 9.4, Hispanic: 19.3, Asian: 10.3, Nat: 0.1, Other: 1.8
![](http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/7797/ny13maloney1.th.jpg)
![](http://img52.imageshack.us/img52/2093/ny13maloney2.th.jpg)
![](http://img815.imageshack.us/img815/3316/ny13maloney3.th.jpg)
Comments: Initially I drew Maloney a district she'd would've loved. More Manattan and Greenpoint white liberals thrown in. But then I saw how much potential danger that throws at Crowley. And since Crowley is after all chair of the Queens Democratic Party doesn't it make sense that someone else goes into the Bronx instead?
While Maloney won't be thrilled she won't be in any danger. Unless Reshma Saujani counts.
NY-14: Charles Rangel (D–Manhattan) - Old NY-15
Olive Green
Old Obama - 93.2, McCain: 6.2
New Obama - 93.9, McCain: 5.6
Old VAP - White: 23.0, Black: 26.5, Hispanic: 43.8, Asian: 4.7, Nat: 0.2, Other: 1.8
New VAP - White: 16.1, Black: 26.7, Hispanic: 50.9, Asian: 43.3, Nat: 0.2, Other 1.7
![](http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/1734/ny14rangel.th.jpg)
Comments: Rangel wants to stay in Manhattan and why not? He's being primaried either way and he might as well stay around voters who know him. And the Bronx machine will probably back the incumbent. Still. State Senator Adriano Espaillat would represent a higher tier challenge than Rangel has had yet to face.
NY-15: Jose Serrano (D–Bronx) - Old NY-16
Orange
Old Obama - Obama: 94.7, McCain: 5.0
New Obama - Obama: 94.0 McCain: 5.8
Old VAP - White: 2.8, Black: 28.4, Hispanic: 65.4, Asian: 1.8, Nat: 0.2, Other: 1.3
New VAP - White: 4.8, Black: 34.6, Hispanic: 56.2, Asian: 2.6, Nat: 0.2, Other: 1.6
![](http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/1248/ny15serrano.th.jpg)
Comments: The only Bronx latino in the delegation. Some feel the Bronx is being shortchanged. This map does little to make them feel any better.
NY-16: Eliot Engel (D–Bronx) - Old NY-17
Neon Green
Old Obama - Obama: 71.8, McCain: 27.6
New Obama - Obama 66.2, McCain: 33.1
Old VAP - White 38.0, Black: 30.4, Hispanic: 24.3, Asian: 5.1, Nat: 0.2, Other: 1.9
New VAP - White: 45.9, Black: 18.3, Hispanic: 27.7, Asian: 6.2, Nat: 0.2, Other: 1.6
![](http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/1535/ny16engel1.th.jpg)
![](http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/6844/ny16engel2.th.jpg)
![](http://img815.imageshack.us/img815/7789/ny16engel3.th.jpg)
Comments: After going through a number of race based challenges in the 90s Engel will like this district's demographics. It also loses some Westchester to Lowey in order to expand more into Democratic areas in Rockland (and even for the sakes of population balancing Orange County). This keeps Hayworth's Obama numbers a bit more steady and allows Hayworth to keep her home in Mt Kisco in her district.
NY-17: Nita Lowey (D–Harrison) - Old NY-18
Purple
Old Obama - Obama: 61.7, McCain: 37.5
New Obama - Obama: 63.1, McCain 36.1
Old VAP - White: 61.8, Black: 9.4, Hispanic: 21.0, Asian: 6.4, Nat: 0.1, Other: 1.3
New VAP - White: 61.2, Black: 13.7, Hispanic: 18.2, Asian: 5.4, Nat: 0.1, Other: 1.5
![](http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/4530/ny17lowey.th.jpg)
Comments: Nita Lowey's district grows to take most of Weschester.
NY-18: Nan Hayworth (R–Mount Kisco) - Old NY-19
Yellow
Old Obama - Obama: 50.6, McCain: 48.3
New Obama - Obama 51.9, McCain 47.1
Old VAP - White: 77.6, Black: 6.0, Hispanic: 11.8, Asian: 3.2, Nat: 0.2, Other: 1.2
New VAP - White 73.6, Black: 8.4, Hispanic: 13.9, Asiian: 2.5, Nat: 0.2, Other: 1.4
![](http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/3897/ny18nan1.th.jpg)
![](http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/1710/ny18nan2.th.jpg)
Comments: Hayworth's district moves north and a little west eating up rural Sullivan County.
NY-19: Paul Tonko (D–Amsterdam) - Old NY-21
Green
Old Obama - Obama: 58.1, McCain: 40.0
New Obama - Obama: 61.3, McCain: 36.6
Old VAP - White: 82.2, Black: 8.1, Hispanic: 4.3, Asian: 3.4, Nat: 0.2, Other: 1.8
New VAP - White: 80.2, Black 8.7, Hispanic: 5.4, Asian: 3.6, Nat: 0.2, Other: 2.0
![](http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/3279/ny19tonko1.th.jpg)
![](http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/6135/ny19tonko2.th.jpg)
![](http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/3808/ny19tonko3.th.jpg)
Comments: Tonko's district becomes a "river" district taking on Hudson River towns such as Kingston once held by Maurice Hinchey. As you may notice if Democrats can ever take the State Senate this district has a lot of Democrats to unpack that could submerge Gibson.
NY-20: Chris Gibson (R–Kinderhook) Old NY-20
Old Obama - Obama: 50.7, McCain: 47.6
New Obama - Obama:48.2, McCain 50.1
Old VAP - White: 92.5, Black: 2.4, Hispanic: 2.7, Asian: 1.3, Nat: 0.2, Other: 1.0
New VAP - White: 91.0, Black: 2.7, Hispanic: 3.7, Asian: 1.5, Nat: 0.2, Other 0.9
![](http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/9186/ny20gibson1.th.jpg)
![](http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/632/ny20gibson2.th.jpg)
![](http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/3883/ny20gibson3.th.jpg)
Comments: Gibson is Tonko's twin. The district surrounds Tonko's and eats up weak or Republican areas. Gibson gets marginally safer and while not completely safe probably a good bet to be re-elected.
NY-21: Bill Owens (D–Plattsburgh) - Old NY-23
Old Obama - Obama: 51.7, McCain: 46.6
New Obama - Obama 53.7, McCain: 44.7
Old VAP - White: 92.4, Black: 2.7, Hispanic: 2.2, Asian: 0.9, Nat: 1.0, Other: 0.9
New VAP - White: 91.9, Black: 2.9, Hispanic: 2.5 Asian: 0.9, Nat: 0.8, Other: 0.9
![](http://img576.imageshack.us/img576/8371/ny21owens1.th.jpg)
![](http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/1971/ny21owens2.th.jpg)
![](http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/2563/ny21owens3.th.jpg)
Comment: District stays pretty much the same except it dips into Saratoga Springs instead of Oneida County. His Democratic numbers tick up in return for Gibson and Hanna also improving their position.
The district remains a Republican target but Owens can now win re-election without an assist from the always generous Doug Hoffman.
NY-22: Richard Hanna (R–Barneveld) - Old NY-24
Old Obama - 50.3, McCain: 47.9
New Obama - 47.0, McCain: 51.1
Old VAP - White: 91.0, Black: 3.5, Hispanic: 2.8, Asian 1.5, Nat: 0.2, Other: 1.0
New VAP - White: 92.7, Black: 2.6, Hispanic: 2.2, Asian: 1.3, Nat: 0.3, Other: 0.9
![](http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/885/ny22hanna1.th.jpg)
![](http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/8766/ny22hanna2.th.jpg)
Comments: A yankee Republican who well suits his district. Probably faces more danger from his fellow Republicans than from a Democratic opponent. His district is a little more Republican and a little more geometric. But pretty similar..
NY-23: Ann Marie Buerkle (R–Syracuse) - Old NY-25
Old Obama - Obama: 55.7, McCain: 42.6
New Obama - Obama: 56.5, McCain 41.9
Old VAP - White: 85.3, Black: 7.2, Hispanic: 3.1, Asian: 2.5, Nat: 0.6, Other: 1.3
New VAP - White: 85.2, Black: 7.3, Hispanic: 3.2, Asian: 2.5, Nat: 0.5, Other: 1.3
![](http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/7959/ny23buerkle1.th.jpg)
![](http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/3753/ny23buerkle2.th.jpg)
Comment: The district stayed remarkably the same stretching from Syracuse all the way to Irondequoit on the outskirts of Rochester. The Obama numbers are always about the same as the DRA generated 2008 number is a point off.
Buerkle is a bad fit for the district and most likely will fall in a non-tsunami year to former Rep. Dan Maffei
NY-24: Louise Slaughter (D–Fairport) - Old NY-28
Purple
Old Obama - Obama: 68.4, McCain: 30.3
New Obama - Obama: 59.5, McCain: 38.9
Old VAP - White: 62.3, Black: 26.3, Hispanic: 6.2, Asian: 2.3, Nat: 0.5, Other: 1.5
New VAP - White: 82.6, Black 7.8, Hispanic: 3.3, Asian: 4.6, Nat: 0.2, Other: 1.5
![](http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/5478/ny24slaughter1.th.jpg)
![](http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/8818/ny24slaughter2.th.jpg)
![](http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/4021/ny24slaughter3.th.jpg)
![](http://img515.imageshack.us/img515/9053/ny24slaughter4.th.jpg)
Comments: Can you create a district purely out of college campuses? This district tests that theory stretching down to Ithaca right to southern tier schools of Elmira and Binghamton. This district has objectively gone from a Western New York district to a Central New York district.
Of course there is one person who probably won't like this little bit of handywork. Louise Slaughter. At 82 years old the last thing she really wants is a district most of which is entirely new territory traversing Route 90 and 96 to God knows where.
I'd almost expect a Barney Frank style rant and a retirement.
NY-25: Tom Reed (R–Corning) - Old NY-29
Pink
Old Obama - Obama: 48.2, McCain: 50.4
New Obama - Obama: 41.7, McCain: 56.7
Old VAP - White: 90.9, Black: 31.1, Hispanic: 1.9, Asian: 2.4, Nat: 0.7, Nat: 1.0
New VAP - White: 93.9, Black: 2.4, Hispanic: 1.7, Asian: 0.9, Nat: 0.4, Other: 0.7
![](http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/1842/ny25reed1.th.jpg)
![](http://img542.imageshack.us/img542/3738/ny25reed2.th.jpg)
Comments: Tom Reed is the lucky Republican to vacuum clean the most unfriendly upstate territory between Buffalo, Rochester, Ithaca, and Elmira giving him the most Republican congressional seat in New York State.
NY-26: Kathy Hochul (D–Snyder) - Old NY-26 (and Old NY-22
Grey
Old Obama NY-26 - Obama: 46.5, McCain: 52.0
Old Obama NY-22 - Obama: 59.2, McCain: 39.2
New Obama - Obama 58.1, McCain 40.4
Old VAP NY-26 - White: 90.5, Black: 3.7, Hispanic: 2.2, Asian: 2.4, Nat: 0.3, Other, 0.9
New VAP - White: 77.4, Black: 12.0, Hispanic: 5.7, Asian: 3.0, Nat: 0.5, Other: 1.0
![](http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/7643/ny26hotchul1.th.jpg)
![](http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/9075/ny26hotchul2.th.jpg)
![](http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/8268/ny26hotchul3.th.jpg)
![](http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/5254/ny26hotchul4.th.jpg)
![](http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/3209/ny26hotchul5.th.jpg)
Comments: While it was Maurice Hinchey's district that was erased since the Democrats already gave up one district (either Ackerman or McCarthy) it was this districts demographics that was sacrificed (and something akin to Hinchey's substituted).
That said this district is in reality with it's earmuffs stretching deep into the City of Rochester a lesser version of Louise Slaughter's old district with Congresswoman Slaughter getting what amounts to a new Democratic district.
NY-27: Brian Higgins (D–Buffalo) - Old NY-27
Old Obama - Obama: 54.2, McCain: 44.0
New Obama - Obama: 58.1, McCain 40.3
Old VAP - White: 87.5, Black: 5.0, Hispanic: 4.9, Asian: 1.2, Nat: 0.5, Other: 0.9
New VAP - White: 77.8, Black: 13.1, Hispanic: 5.2, Asian: 1.4, Nat: 0.9, Other: 1.6
![](http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/5899/ny27higgins1.th.jpg)
![](http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/3369/ny27higgins2.th.jpg)
![](http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/7914/ny27higgins3.th.jpg)
![](http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/2108/ny27higgins4.th.jpg)
Comments: Just as Reed gets strengthened so does Higgins. Who is not really in any danger anyway except his old numbers made this seat very vulnerable if the seat became vacant. Especially given how shakey Buffalo has been as of late.
Summation:
For what was supposed to be a "status quo" redistricting a lot of changes were made. Some of these were arbitrary choice I made. But to some extent it is a reflection of a central truth. You can't eliminate two seats and increase the population requirements for every seat in the state and not make some signifigant changes.
The two biggest changes of course are Ackerman/McCarthy's seat being eliminated and that of departing Congressman Maurice Hinchey. Since that would be two Democratic seats one Democrat (Hotchul) in a Republican seat is given a district with a strong Democratic lean.
The two most vulnerable Republicans who won in flukes (Ann Marie Buerkle and Bob Turner) are given seats very similar to their old ones in both shape and partisan makeup. Both should lose. Thus come 2012 this map would turn New York's 21-8 Democrat/Republican split into a 21-6 split.
Both Tim Bishop and Bill Owens came in as incumbents facing tough races. And both will continue to do so. Owens saw his position improve by swapping voters with Gibson and Hanna but remains vulnerable.
On the Republican side Nan Hayworth and Michael Grimm saw their numbers weaken slightly. They are both freshman and thus vulnerable. But like Bishop and Owens if you had to bet money you'd probably choose the incumbents. But the question is how entrenched are these two and will they receive a true incumbents advantage? In the case of Nan Hayworth I'm not too sure. And Grimm has had a cloud of scandal around him as of late.
Gibson and Hanna should be safe unless it's a very bad year for Republicans. But all freshman should be watched closely.
And yes. Long Island perplexes me when it comes to redistricting. I never seem to do a good job with it.