Alabama and Mississippi Delegate Allocation Prediction:
Mitt Romney is nipping at Newt Gingrich’s and Rick Santorum’s heels in Mississippi and Alabama and there is some sense that a win by Romney in either would go a great deal toward sealing the deal for him. However when looking at the delegate math out of these two states, we are looking at states which are likely to be very close contests for delegates. Here is how I see it breaking down
Total
Gingrich 31
Santorum 28
Romney 25
Mississippi
This is as contest with very little delegate importance. At the at large level, Mississippi has 25 delegates, in a three way this means each candidate is going to get 8 delegates a piece unless the polling is radically off, with one to go.[some chance the top 2 could end with 9 a piece with the third person falling to 7. At the Congressional District level, each of four districts, gets three delegates, and barring massive landslides, each candidate will get 1 a piece for all four districts, therefore the difference for all of Mississippi is really one[maybe two] delegates at stake. I think Newt gets it.
Mississippi Allocation
Gingrich 13
Romney 12
Santorum 12
Alabama
This is a more complicated contest. Not so at the at large level where there are 26 delegate. This means that instead of winner gets a delegate, more accurately third place drops a delegate for a 9-9-8 split. More interestingly is the district level, and it is here where Romney’s miniscule polling lead might not hold up. Each district is worth 2 to the winner and 1 to the second place finisher, however getting to 50% would net all three delegates [which is unlikely here]
Based on them 2008 Map
Mitt Romney is quite likely to win the 1st and 5th districts of Alabama, netting him four delegates, however his strength in these two districts likely precludes strength in the other five districts. Meaning he might win the popular vote statewide with strong votes in these two districts but might not be able to snag even a second place finish in any of the other five districts. In the end I think Gingrich is going to grab an overall statewide win, and Santorum will come in second for the delegates while coming in third statewide. I am predicting Santorum will win the 4th and 7th, while coming in second, in the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th. Gingrich will win the 2nd,3rd,and 6th, while coming in second in the 1st, 4th and 7th. Romney will win the 1st and 5th but take home no silvers.
However even the slightest edge one-way or another could tip large sums of delegate in one direct or another as the race between 1st and 2nd, or between second and third are not likely to be large in any districts but the 1st and 5th where Romney’s lead will likely be unassailable.
Alabama Delegate Allocation
Gingrich 18
Santorum 16
Romney 13