The IPCC tomorrow releases the complete electronic version of its Special Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change– Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). The report, previewed last November in a 19-page Summary for Policymakers will be available in print version this May. It was negotiated and finalized last fall in Kampala, Uganda.
The new IPCC report confirms the link between climate change and certain examples of extreme weather. Flooding and heat waves, for example, are on the rise due to increases in greenhouse gas pollution from smokestacks and tailpipes.
Additionally, the report also provided policy-makers with tools to shape an adaptation strategy to extreme weather events in preparation for the COP18 in Qatar this November,
In recognition of the irrefutable link between Climate Change and extreme weather, 350.org this year is calling on folks around the world to participate in this year's global day of action, which is dedicated to connecting the dots ...
Connect the Dots
350.org's recently launched an extreme weather and climate campaign called “Connect the Dots” which debuts with May 5 Climate Impact Days when (as Jamie Henn reports) "people around the world -- from the flood zone in Pakistan to the drought stricken fields of Texas -- will host events that connect the dots between extreme weather and climate."
Climate Impacts Day is a global day of action taking place on May 5, 2012.
On that day, we will issue a wake-up call, and connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather. We will educate, protest, create, document, and volunteer along with thousands of people around the world.
A few more reasons why this matters ...
• Oxford University researchersproject that global average temperatures could rise to 3°C above late 20th century averages by 2050.
• Link builds between weather extremes and warming
Reuters)
- Extreme weather events over the past decade have increased and were "very likely" caused by manmade global warming, a study in the journal Nature Climate Change said on Sunday.
Scientists at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Research used physics, statistical analysis and computer simulations to link extreme rainfall and heat waves to global warming. The link between warming and storms was less clear.
The Guardian reports: Researchers have updated HadCRUT - one of the main global temperate records, which dates back to 1850.
Earlier today, beach babe in fl reported Global Temperature rise by 3C/5.4F "plausible" by 2050.
SREX report could come under-fire from our opposition.
Earlier this morning, tcktcktck published suggestions for countering any forthcoming attacks on SREX from the perspective of attacks on the process, the science, the potential labeling of the report as "alarmist" or focusing on uncertainty.
Some strategies include:
Uncertainty
Where the report does indicate uncertainty about future impacts, much of it is due not to uncertainty about the path of climate change but rather it is due to uncertainty about the path of future emissions. The IPCC projections are the compilation of model runs that test a number of different emission scenarios. And the SREX report explicitly notes that uncertainties about future emissions become the “dominant” source of uncertainty for projections about some weather extremes by the end of the century. It should be noted that emissions are currently running higher than any of the scenarios envisioned by the IPCC.
Attacking the Science
Non-peer reviewed literature or ‘grey literature’ includes the likes of industry journals, workshop proceedings, reports from governments and international organizations. It makes an important contribution to IPCC reports. There is a wealth of literature on disaster risk management and adaptation not published in the peer-reviewed literature. Partly because practitioners often don't publish, and partly because peer-reviewed journals are often not interested in issues around practice. Further, many developing countries don't have the culture of publishing peer-reviewed papers.
Alarmist Labels
IPCC terminology needs to be properly understood. Low confidence in a conclusion does not mean low risk, rather it is an indication that the evidence available is limited, however that evidence may still be compelling. We should be guided by the precautionary principle and prepare to face certain risks in the future on which current science might not offer high confidence yet. Ignoring high impact outcomes because evidence is limited is, in fact, a very high-risk activity.
Attacks on the Process
All IPCC reports are open and transparent. All early drafts of reports are made available after reports are approved. It is perfectly acceptable for the scientist involved to be left to carry out their difficult work without permanent scrutiny. This ensures that the full range of views can be presented on matters where there is still scientific debate.