The time is drawing near for the Republican Convention and when we'll finally learn who Romney's running mate will be. There are several factors I am going to consider, but the biggest filter will be the fact that Mitt needs a fire-breathing (real, non-flipp-flopping) conservative to fire up the base and placate the Tea Party. Read below to see some of the potential winners (losers?) that are probably on his short-list.
Romney's VP pick is going to be crucial in his attempt to mend the divisions within his party caused by the disastrous primary he had to slog through to get the nomination. As such, he will need to find a running mate that will give him cover on the right, silence the conservative media (as if Fox News wasn't already writing and airing enough puff-pieces about him to begin with) all while giving the Tea Party and/or conservative activists enough comfort to tolerate voting for him at the top of the ticket. Here are a few picks which seem highly likely:
1. Michelle Bachmann - This could be a repeat of the totally-out-of-right-field VP pick that Sen. John McCain pulled in 2008. Rep. Bachmann is extremely popular among the Tea Partiers and knows how to fire up a conservative crowd almost as good as "Sister Sarah". Minnesota's Electoral Votes may be on Camp Romney's radar or they may want to force Team Obama to fight a rearguard action to prevent that possibility. Her ties to Iowa and the Midwest in general might attract the attention of Romney's vetting people, but this isn't really a compelling reason to pick her.
2. Fmr. Sen. Rick Santorum - The Romney Campaign may decide on the mathematical principle that Romney's primary votes plus Santorum's primary votes equals around 60% of republican support and that's good enough. The barbs traded in the primary so far make this a remote possibility, but Santorum's connection to sort-of swing-state Pennsylvania may factor into this decision. As the only non-Romney left, picking Santorum may also give Romney's campaign a little momentum AND keep the convention from devolving into a madhouse (well, more than it already is normally anyway). However, it will be extremely difficult to diffuse the resulting "Google Problem" as well as all the alienation Sen. Santorum has worked so hard to spread among women, minorities, immigrants, college students, college graduates, scientists, workers, the unemployed, medical patients, etc.
3. Gov. Nikki Haley - North Carolina DID go for the President last time around, so this pick is sorta justifiable when looking at the Electoral Map and South Carolina's proximity to "blue" territory. Additionally, Romney's BIGGEST problem currently is that women are rapidly turning away from him due to his party's strange fixation with turning the clock back to the 1950s as far as reproductive choice is concerned. Oh, and Romney's cowardly reaction to Rush Limbaugh's crude and sexist remarks doesn't help either. Anyway, Gov. Haley is slightly more palatable to female voters than Rep. Bachmann, but that's not saying much. Gov. Jan Brewer might fit in this category as well while Gov. Bob McDonnell would be more a blatant grab for Virginia's electoral votes than anything else. However, putting 2 former and/or current state governors on the same ticket hasn't been all that popular of an option for presidential candidates.
4. Sen. Marco Rubio - This guy is the most likely pick in my opinion. He has conservative bona fides and is a Tea Party darling. He's from a swing state rich in electoral votes, although his popularity in the state isn't stellar (50% approval, 29% disapproval). Polling last year found that Sen. Rubio may not be that much of a help to the Republican Nominee, though:
Hardly anyone likes Marco Rubio Either
The unpopularity of Gov. Rick Scott may drag down this advantage for republicans in general, however. Additionally, republicans are probably assured that Sen. Rubio will help their party with Latino voters, even though most "Latinos" are sure to see this as just a cynical ploy given the party's recent hostility. Sen. Rubio has also come under fire for how truthful his version of the events in his childhood were in describing how his family escaped from Cuba:
Rubio's False Bio
Regardless, with the corner that Romney's campaign has backed itself into, Sen. Rubio is probably the strongest pick despite his flaws.
There have been some strange and surprising running mate picks throughout U.S. history, especially on the losing side. Acts of desperation and blatant grabs for electoral votes usually do not help with electoral success. Recent close elections have hardly ever involved the running mate's home state or territory. However, with Corporate Personhood and unlimited Super PAC spending, strange things may happen anyway...