Dear fellow Kossacks.
I propose the following proposition:
Obama will win in a landslide in 2012 and he will enact a much more progressive agenda.
(Not that past is the best predictor but I knew Bush would beat Kerry because of Ohio and because of incumbent-likeability factor (see below))
The reasoning is the following:
(more below the fold)
1. I know many liberals and progressives are disillusioned with Obama. A friend of mine accosted Joseph Stiglitz at a wedding and he said Obama was intellectually compromised. The problem is that unfortunately the US elections depend on $$$$ regardless of how you cut it. And Obama a relentless student of “power politics” knows that and has to cater somewhat to this ridiculous situation (even more so with the Citizens United ruling). But once re-elected he has to cater much less to this crowd, once received this money (this crowd might know this hence Wall Street has given much more to Romney than Obama) he will be more free. Hence the brilliance of this two term presidency rule. I think catching some of that off-mike conversation with Medvedv was indicative of that, he does think he can enact much more in his second term. By the way when LBJ enacted the civil rights law he was said that was not a good move, etc. but LBJ counteracted by saying that “what do you become president for ?” I think Obama’s sanctioning of gay marriage was a similar huge step in that direction.
2. Many of the commentators that I have read on dailykos say that that the elections will be close are not very clear on the reasons why. Unless the economy tanks which is highly unlikely I don’t see Obama losing. First of all, in many of these analyses, they see Romney as making a certain move but never talking about how Obama will counter move. As has been noted numerous times, Obama is a brilliant tactician, for example against many of his advisor’s recommendations he made the famous Race speech. So for every supposed Romney “advantage,” Obama has a brilliant counter-move. So no worries on that. Second, Obama once in a speech on Bush’s re-election has said that it is very difficult to unseat a very likeable incumbent and I think the differential in fav vs Romney will very much tip his way.
Thoughts ?