Polls are not scientific experiments, they are statistical exercises. Political analysis is not a science. In fact, the use of the term "science" after "political" is merely a form of academic branding. Never permit polls and pollsters to confuse the issues or to design the strategy. Political strategy is not a science, it is an art. The surveys of pollsters are interpretations of highly selective data. They do not now - nor will they ever rise to the level of "science." They are useful tools, but they are not laws of science and they are not even gospel.
Writing for the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver examines the latest PPP poll that has driven some Chicken Littles to shrill their version of, "The sky is falling." The sky is not falling. Romney is enjoying a perfectly predictable period of some very modest growth in his popularity. At this time in 2004, John Kerry soared circa 12-15 points above his rival, George W. Bush - and we remember what happened next - don't we? A few clues: the Catholic Bishops issued their infamous "letter" denouncing Kerry as a baby-killer; the Swift Boat Veterans twisted the truth about Kerry beyond all previous bounds of reason and the Republican National Convention went totally negative with a keynote address by Zell Miller demonizing Kerry as if he were the greatest threat to American national security since Adolf Hitler.
The point: Although the suspense is already beginning to build this movie is barely getting started, but there will be many twists and turns before election day. If history is any guide, Romney will continue to rise in the polls between now and the Republican National Convention in Tampa where his popularity will spike at its peak. Then something important will happen - The Democratic National Convention in Charlotte where Obama will deliver his acceptance speech at Panther Stadium before tens of thousands of his most loyal supporters in the heartland of Republican presidential and political power - The South. The two candidates will both experience surges in their popularity that will provide them with momentum through three debates and drive public opinion right up to election day.
Nobody on earth knows yet how this movie will end, but the scriptwriters are at it hammer and tong. Democrats are writing separate scripts. Centrists/Blue Dogs and DINOS foresee a squeaker, while activists see a landslide. Republicans are hoping and praying for a rerun of 2000 where their candidate won by one vote on the SCOTUS and by five paltry votes in the electoral college. The scenes behind the scenes are becoming dramatic and dangerous to the future of democracy. Republicans are bursting at the seams to delegitimize voting rights as they manipulate legal challenges to their promiscuous voter purges that they hope to place before the SCOTUS. The suspense is building into a tsunami of emotional weather that will burst upon us - like it or not - in the run up to this election day.