Back in January I put together a prediction for the November 2012 General Election for the Wisconsin Assembly: January 2012 Predictions
Now that the nomination window closed about 2 weeks ago, I have taken the time to examine who has filed to run and reassess the 99 races. Predictions were made based in part on data from DRA and candidate website information. Feel free to offer suggestions. A list of candidates can be found on the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board website. Updates from January are in bold.
54 Seats are likely to be held by Republicans:
Current R districts that are safe or likely R districts: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 14, 21, 23, 24, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 36, 38, 39, 40, 41, 52, 53, 55, 56, 58, 59, 60, 63, 67, 69, 82, 83, 84, 86, 87, 89, 93, 97, 98, 99. (41 districts)
Current D districts that are safe or likely R districts: 13, 15, 22, 37, 42, 61, 62. (7 districts)
Current R districts that COULD be in play: 50, 68, 69, 75, 93, 96. (6 districts)
38 Seats are likely to be held by Democrats:
Current D districts that are safe or likely D districts: 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 46, 48, 54, 57, 64, 65, 71, 73, 74, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 85, 91, 92, 94, 95. (31 districts)
Current R districts that are safe or likely D districts: 44, 45, 47, 51, 66, 86, 90. (7 districts)
Current D districts that COULD be in play: none (0 districts)
That leaves a total of 7 districts that are "in play":
Current R districts that ARE in play: 35, 43, 49, 72, 88. (5 districts)
Current I who acts like an R that is in play: 25. (1 district)
Current D districts that ARE in play: 70. (1 district)
Clearly, these SEVEN seats are the ones Democrats will need to focus on to move toward providing a more balanced Assembly. For being a rather 50/50 state on a lot of matters over time, this analysis clearly shows how redistricting in the hands of a select group of people in one party can skew the balance of power in government.
Once again, here is a link to the Assembly maps, both current map and the one to be used in this year's November election: Wisconsin Assembly and Senate Maps
Details on each of the 99 Assembly seats are below. Again, feel free to offer suggestions. There are probably you know that I don't or possibly errors made below.
AD-1: Incumbent Garey Bies (R). Two Democrats are running in the primary to challenge Bies. Likely R hold.
AD-2: Incumbent Andre Jacque (R). District shifts a bit to the west, but still hard for the Democrat who filed to win. Safe R hold.
AD-3: Incumbent Al Ott (R) is getting challenged in the primary by a Ron Paul style Republican. A Democrat has also filed in the race, as has an Independent. The district could come into play if Ott loses the primary. Likely R hold.
AD-4: Incumbent and former Green Bay City Clerk Chad Weininger (R) is being challenged by a Democrat. Safe R hold.
AD-5: Two Democrats are running to take on one-term incumbent Jim Steineke (R). This seat was held by former Democrat and Lt. Gov. candidate (and current Outagamie Co. Manager) Tom Nelson. Redistricting does not appear to have helped a Democrat win this seat. Likely R hold.
AD-6: Incumbent Gary Tauchen (R) has a Democratic challenger. The district is a bit more Democratic due to redistricting, however not enough to give Tauchen a strong challenge. Safe R hold.
AD-7: Incumbent Peggy Krusick (D) has a Democratic challenger. No Republicans have filed. Safe D hold.
AD-8: Incumbent Jocasta Zamarripa (D) also has a primary challenger, but no Republican filing. Safe D hold.
AD-9: Josh Zepnick (D) is the incumbent. There will be a Democratic primary. No Republican filed. Safe D hold.
AD-10: Incumbent Elizabeth Coggs (D) is not running. Four Democrats, including current AD-22 Representative Sandy Pasch, and no Republicans have filed. Safe D hold.
AD-11: Incumbent Jason Fields (D) has a primary challenger, but again no Republican filed. Safe D hold.
AD-12: Incumbent Frederick Kessler (D)... repeat AD-11! Safe D hold.
AD-13: Incumbent David Cullen (D) was elected to the Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors and is not seeking re-election to the Assembly. The district’s territory has drastically shifted to the west into Waukesha Co and contains very little of the district’s original territory. Three Republicans and one Democrat are running. Safe R pickup.
AD-14: Incumbent Dale Kooyenga (R) moves into more Republican territory against one Democrat who filed. The challenger has a good message, but likely not a good fit for this district. Safe R hold.
AD-15: Incumbent Tony Staskunas (D) is not seeking re-election in this district that has also shifted westward and more Republican. A Republican Milwaukee Co. Board Supervisor is running, with two Democrats running in the primary. Safe R pickup.
AD-16: Incumbent Leon Young (D) is not being challenged for re-election. Safe D hold.
AD-17: Barbara Toles (D) is not running for re-election. Four Democrats, no Republicans, and an Independent have filed to run. Safe D hold.
AD-18: This is incumbent Tamara Grigsby’s (D) seat. Eight Democrats, no Republicans, and a Libertarian are running to replace her since she is not running. Safe D hold.
AD-19: Incumbent Jon Richards (D) is running unopposed. Safe D hold.
AD-20: Two Republicans have filed to unseat long-time incumbent Christine Sinicki (D). Few changes were made to her district in redistricting. Likely D hold.
AD-21: Incumbent Mark Honadel (R) is being challenged by a Democrat. Likely R hold.
AD-22: Incumbent Sandy Pasch (D) is now in AD-10. AD-22 is in totally new (Republican) territory. Current AD-99 Representative Don Pridemore (R) is likely to win this seat, although he is being challenged by another Republican. Safe R pickup.
AD-23: Incumbent Jim Ott (R) is being challenged by a Democrat. Safe R hold.
AD-24: Incumbent Dan Knodl (R) is being challenged by a Democrat. Safe R hold.
AD-25: Incumbent Bob Ziegelbauer (I, former D) is not seeking re-election. Four Republicans and four Democrats are running for this seat. IN PLAY.
AD-26: Incumbent Mike Endsley (R) has both Republican and Democratic competition. The old AD-26 was previously represented by Democrats for years until 2010. The city of Sheboygan has now been split into both AD-26 and AD-27, diluting any Democratic retaking. AD-26 includes the south and central parts of Sheboygan, and the highly Republican communities south of Sheboygan. Safe R hold.
AD-27: Incumbent Steve Kestell (R) barely remains in AD-27 with redistricting. He gets a district more Democratic than his old AD-27, but not Democratic enough to un-elect him. Safe R hold.
AD-28: Incumbent Erik Severson (R) is being challenged by a Democrat. A Democrat did hold this seat for two terms in the last decade. Safe R hold.
AD-29: Incumbent John Murtha (R) is also being challenged by a Democrat. Numbers are a little more favorable here than in AD-28. Safe R hold.
AD-30: Incumbent Dean Knudson (R) also faces a Democratic challenger. The geographic area shrinks significantly due to increasing population in the area. Safe R hold.
AD-31: Current AD-45 Amy Loudenbeck (R) is now in this district, which basically is the old 45th (only a small overlap with the old 31st, held by Republican Steven Nass). She is being challenged by a Democrat. Likely R hold.
AD-32: Incumbent Tyler August (R) is being challenged by a Democrat and Libertarian. Safe R hold.
AD-33: Steve Nass (R) from AD-31 is now in AD-33. Current incumbent Chris Kapenga (R) is now running in AD-99. Nass faces Democratic and Libertarian opponents in November. Safe R hold.
AD-34: Incumbent Dan Meyer (R) is retiring. Two Republicans, two Democrats, and two Independents are running. Numbers favor Republicans. Likely R hold.
AD-35: Incumbent Tom Tiffany (R) is running for State Senate. An insurance agent Mary Czaja (R), a town chairperson Kevin Koth (D) and Patrick Tjugum (I) are running. This district could be picked up by any one of these three. IN PLAY.
AD-36: Incumbent Jeff Mursau (R) is being challenged by a Democrat. Safe R hold.
AD-37: Very little of the old AD-37 is in the new AD-37, including Incumbent Andy Jorgensen (D). 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats are vying for this seat. Demographics are on the side of the Republicans in this gerrymandered district that dips into Democratic-leaning Dane County a little, but not enough to put it in play. Likely R pickup.
AD-38: Incumbent Joel Kleefisch (R) faces a Democrat and Libertarian here. Safe R hold.
AD-39: Three Republicans and one Democrat are attempting to win the seat currently held by Jeff Fitzgerald (R). Safe R hold.
AD-40: Incumbent Kevin Petersen (R) does not even have a challenger. Safe R hold.
AD-41: Incumbent Joan Ballweg (R) faces a Democratic challenger. The territory shifts and becomes more Democratic. Still, probably not enough for a Democrat to pick up, though, except in a strong sweep year. Likely R hold.
AD-42: Musical chairs once again. Incumbent Fred Clark (D) shifts to AD-81, while current AD-47 Rep. Keith Ripp (R) slides into an easier district for him here. A Democrat is running. Safe R pickup.
AD-43: Here we get interesting. Current AD-43 Incumbent Evan Wynn (R) faces current AD-37 rep Andy Jorgensen (D). Numbers in the district will slightly favor Jorgensen, although he picks up many new constituents. IN PLAY.
AD-44: This Janesville urban district was long held by Democrats until the 2010 election. Four Democrats have filed to run against Joe Knilans (R). Likely D pickup.
AD-45: Incumbent Amy Loudenbeck (R) shifts to AD-31. Current AD-80 Janis Ringhand (D) is now here in a lot of new territory. Ringhand and a Democratic challenger are running for this seat, as are two Republicans. Likely D pickup.
AD-46: Incumbent Gary Hebl (D) gets a challenge from a Republican. Safe D hold.
AD-47: The old AD-47 represented by Keith Ripp (R) was north of Madison. The new AD-47 is south of Madison. Two Democrats and one Republican are running. Safe D pickup.
AD-48: Incumbent Chris Taylor (D) will now represent AD-76. Melissa Sargent (D) will win, although she does have a Libertarian opponent. Safe D hold.
AD-49: Incumbent Travis Tranel (R) faces a Republican challenger. The winner of the primary will face Democrat Carol Beals. District represented by a Democrat the previous two terms, and in presidential voting is strongly Democratic. IN PLAY.
AD-50: Incumbent Ed Brooks (R) faces a previous challengers Democrat and town clerk Sarah Ann Shanahan and Independent Ben Olson. This districts leans Democratic, but tends to elect Republicans to the Assembly. This district could pick a Democrat when Brooks retires or under the right circumstances. Lean R hold.
AD-51: Two Democrats are running to unseat first term incumbent Howard Marklein (R). They have a good chance as they are both strong candidates. This is a Democratic leaning district that was represented by Democrats in the past decade and that picks up Democratic territory. Likely D pickup.
AD-52: Incumbent Jeremy Thiesfeldt (R) faces a Democratic challenger. Safe R hold.
AD-53: Incumbent Richard Spanbauer (R) is not running for re-election due to too much partisanship. Three Republicans, including state Treasurer Kurt Schuller, are running for the seat, as are three Democrats. Safe R hold.
AD-54: Incumbent Gordon Hintz (D) has a Republican challenger. Safe D hold.
AD-55: Incumbent Dean Kaufert (somewhat moderate R) faces a Republican challenger before heading to the general against a Democrat. Likely R hold, unless Kaufert loses the primary.
AD-56: Incumbent Michelle Litjens (R) is not running for re-election. Two Republicans and two Democrats are running. Safe R hold.
AD-57: Incumbent Penny Bernard Schaber (D) is running unopposed, although she has to move to stay in the district. Safe D hold.
AD-58: Incumbent Pat Strachota (R) is running unopposed. Safe R hold.
AD-59: Incumbent Daniel Lemahieu (R) is running unopposed. Safe R hold.
AD-60: Duey Stroebel (R) faces a Democratic challenger. Safe R hold.
Districts 61-66 involve a grand renumbering scheme aimed at the GOP winning 3 of the 6 Assembly seats and one of the two Senate seats.
AD-61: Incumbent Robert Turner (D) is not running for re-election. The 61st was an urban Racine area district. Now, AD-61 is southern and western Kenosha County. Current area representatives Samantha Kerkman (R) and John Steinbrink (D) are running for this seat. By the numbers, it is likely to be won by Kerkman. Likely R pickup.
AD-62: Old AD-62 was southern Racine County. New AD-62 is northern Racine County. Incumbent Cory Mason (D) no longer lives here. One Republican and two Democrats are running for the seat that is mostly Republican territory. Likely R pickup.
AD-63: This is Republican Robin Vos’s seat (R), and he gets to keep his number! Safe R hold.
AD-64: Incumbent Minority Leader Peter Barca (D) also get to keep his number. His is running unopposed in his district that now includes some of Racine County. Safe D hold.
AD-65: John Steinbrink (D) is running in the 61st. Three Democrats are running for this Kenosha-based seat in this highly Democratic area. Safe D hold.
AD-66: Samantha Kerkman (R) is running in the 61st also. Cory Mason will easily pick up Racine-based this seat (high minority population also), as he is the only one running. Safe D pickup.
AD-67: Incumbent Tom Larson (R) runs in a district largely unchanged with redistricting. He has a Democratic opponent. Safe R hold.
AD-68: Kathy Bernier (R) is a first-term representative in this district that becomes much more rural with redistricting. Still, the Democrat Judy Smriga has a reasonable shot as this new district did vote approximately 55% for Obama. Lean R hold.
AD-69: Majority Leader Scott Suder (R) has won this district overwhelmingly since he was elected in 1998. Through redistricting, his district becomes more Democratic by picking up the majority of Marshfield. Challenger Paul Knoff (D) will be Suder’s biggest competition yet, as Knoff is familiar to the communities of the 69th as a former radio news personality. Perhaps Suder was a bit too arrogant in this redistricting scheme? No doubt the Republican big wigs will pour money into this race if there is a possibility of Suder losing. Lean R hold... but keep an eye on this one.
AD-70: Incumbent Amy Sue Vruwink (D) got the bad end of the redistricting mess. The 70th, once mostly within two counties, now stretches through rural areas of four counties, meandering to the new population base of the district in Monroe County. Two Republicans are also running for this seat. This is very much IN PLAY.
AD-71: Nine candidates have registered as Democrats, and there is one Republican candidate for this seat being vacated by Louis Molepske (D) due to his run for Portage Co. DA. Whichever Democrat wins the primary will win the general in the Stevens Point based district. Safe D hold.
AD-72: Incumbent Scott Krug (R) was able to win against a four decade Democratic incumbent in 2010. Firefighter Justin Pluess (D) is running to unseat him. Redistricting costs this district some Democratic area of Adams County. IN PLAY.
AD-73: Incumbent Nick Milroy (D) is running unopposed. Safe D hold.
AD-74. Incumbent Janet Bewley (D) has a Republican opponent. Safe D hold.
AD-75: Incumbent Roger Rivard (R) has a Democratic challenger in this district that usually elects Democrats. Redistricting resulted in the loss of a little bit of Democratic territory. Lean R hold.
Musical seats starts yet again....
AD-76: AD-48 Rep. Chris Taylor (D) is running unopposed. Safe D hold.
AD-77: AD-76 Rep. Terese Berceau (D) will be the next AD-77 Rep. Safe D hold.
AD-78: AD-77 Rep. Brett Hulsey (D) faces a primary competitor and also a Green Party candidate here. Safe D hold.
AD-79: Incumbent Sondy Pope-Roberts (D) is now in AD-80. Two Democrats are vying for this seat. Safe D hold.
AD-80: This one could be interesting. A Republican, and three Democrats are running for AD-80 currently represented by Janis Ringhand (D) who is running for AD-45. Joe Wineke, former representative, senator, and Dem. Party Chair and AD-79 Rep. Sondy Pope-Roberts are two of the Democrats running. Likely D hold.
AD-81: Kelda Helen Roys (D) is running for Congress. AD-42 Rep. Fred Clark (D) will face a Republican. This territory is favorable to his winning. Safe D hold.
AD-82: Jeff Stone (R) faces a Democrat. Safe R hold.
AD-83: Dave Craig (R) also faces a Democrat. Safe R hold.
AD-84: Mike Kuglitsch (R) has a Democratic opponent as well. Safe R hold.
AD-85: Incumbent Donna Seidel (D) is not running due to her run for Senate in the recall. This district is a bit more Democratic after redistricting. Two Democrats, one Republican, and one Libertarian are running. The Republican is a popular conservative radio host in the area. Likely D hold.
AD-86: Incumbent Jerry Petrowski (R) is headed to the Senate. Former police officer Dennis Halkoski (D), and two Republicans--a Marshfield Alderman and another guy who filed at the last minute and lives about a mile up the road (literally) from Petrowski. Since this is my home district, I may be showing too much optimism here. Likely D pickup.
AD-87: Incumbent Mary Williams (R) is running and has a Democratic challenger. Safe R hold.
AD-88: One-term incumbent John Klenke (R) faces Democratic attorney Ward Bacon. The district has a history of choosing both Republican and Democratic reps. Bacon appears to have some interesting campaign techniques. TOSSUP.
AD-89: John Nygren (R) filed enough signatures to run for reelection. A Democrat is taking him on. This is John Gard’s old district... Safe R hold.
AD-90: Karl Van Roy (R) is not running for reelection. Two Republicans and a Democrat are running for this seat. The Democrat seems to be the most Safe candidate. This district had high Obama numbers, so I am not sure why they have elected Van Roy for so long. Likely D pickup.
AD-91: Incumbent Chris Danou (D) is running in AD-92. This district is now an urban Eau Claire district. Attorney Dana Wachs (D) is the only candidate running, so he will win. Safe D hold.
AD-92: Incumbent Mark Radcliffe (D) is not running. Chris Danou (D) is the only candidate. Safe D hold.
AD-93: Jeff Smith (D) lost this seat to Warren Petryk (R) in 2010. Smith is attempting to retake the seat in this much more rural, more Republican, 93rd district. Lean R hold.
AD-94: Two Republicans are running to unseat Steve Doyle (D). The district is largely unchanged due to redistricting. Likely D hold.
AD-95: Incumbent Jill Billings (D) is running unopposed for this urban LaCrosse district. Safe D hold.
AD-96: Incumbent Lee Nerison (R) has a Democratic competitor in disabled veteran Tom Johnson. In an open race, a Democrat would have a 50/50 shot in this district. Nerison did vote against Walker’s budget repair bill. Lean R hold, but this is one to watch, particularly later in the decade.
AD-97: Bill Kramer (R) has a Democratic competitor. Believe it or not, there are parts of the city of Waukesha that can vote Democratic in some elections. Those were located in what was an 97th district comprised mostly of the city of Waukesha. Redistricting has protected this district for Kramer by splitting Waukesha between AD-97 and AD-98. The 97th contains only the southern part of Waukesha and then meanders through more rural territory toward Mukwonago. Safe R hold.
AD-98: Paul Farrow (R) has a Democratic competitor. Safe R hold.
AD-99: Don Pridemore (R) is running in AD-22. AD-33 Rep. Chris Kapenga (R) is running here, as is a Democrat. Safe R hold.
Mon Aug 13, 2012 at 10:20 PM PT: Will be looking to update the ratings here after this week's primary. Anything to take into account that has not already been commented on?
