This is a follow up diary to one I posted once the new maps were released a few months ago. The filing deadline has passed, and a large number of things and candidates have changed in the last few months. So consider this the post-filing Minnesota Legislature roundup. Like the last time, this will be broken into two parts: Outstate, and Metro
District 1: Northwest Minnesota. This is a pretty balanced district. The lines didn't change much in redistricting. In 2008 both house seats were held by the DFL and in 2010 they were won by Republicans. The senate seat has been held by Leroy Stumpf since before I was born. Stumpf has filed for reelection, and will be a shoo-in for reelection. He will face either Korean(!) War veteran Jual Carlson or (more likely) Thief River Falls mayor Steve Nordhagen. District 1A has freshman incumbent Dan Fabian has managed to not have a serious contender, but a warm DFL body here cannot be 100% discounted, but Fabian looks likely to return to St. Paul. Over in 1B, Deb Kiel has not given off quite as good of an impression locally as Fabian has, and 1B is a lot less Republican friendly than 1A. Now, Marc Demers is no heavyweight, but Kiel is rubbing a lot of people in Theif River Falls and East Grand Forks the wrong way. Incumbency can never be ignored, so this race will need more time to develop before this race shows its true colors.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Likely R
House B: Toss-up
District 2: This is essentially the Bemidji/Park Rapids district. It is best known for being the headwaters of the Mississippi River. This race ended up not playing out at ALL how I expected it would when the maps came out. But when the dust settled, Senator Rod Skoe faces a Some (very angry, from what I gather) Dude in Dennis Moser. I have never met or heard Moser speak, but my friends that have were... amused. Skoe has nothing to worry about, as he averted a primary challenge from the left, as Skoe is a lot like his congressman, Colin Peterson. 2A has another Republican freshman in an interesting spot. The cartographers could have done much worse to Representative Hancock, but there is only so much Republican territory in this part of the state. A retired teacher from one of the Republican areas of the district is running. But I won't make any rash judgments on this race until I see what Erickson is made of. Hancock hasn't made any mistakes, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Now, due to the new more Republican friendly 2A, that made 2B more DFL friendly with Park Rapids at its core. The woman that Hancock unseated in 2010 lives here, and it has no incumbent. The Republicans didn't endorse in this race, so there will be a primary. But neither candidate has a resume to speak of. Brita Sailer should "sail" back to St. Paul for a 4th term.
Senate: Safe D.
House A: Lean R
House B: Likely D
District 3: Welcome to the Iron Range and the BWCA. Incumbents Bakk, Murphy, and Dill should win by their customary landslides
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D
District 4: This is essentially Moorhead and surrounding area. Longtime Moorhead Republican stalwart Morrie Lanning is retiring from district 4A. Lanning is a good man, and he will be sorely missed in St. Paul. He got his biggest priority passed this year (the Vikings stadium), and decided to call it a political career, a career which started during the Vietnam War. Happy trails, Morrie. But, Lanning was holding a seat that no other Republican really has a prayer at holding, which is nearly coterminous with the liberal college town of Moorhead (directly across the river from Fargo) DFLer Ben Lien got the party endorsement, but faces token primary opposition. The Republican field is crowded, but none of the candidates have an inspiring resume. In the marginally less DFL (I say this tongue in cheek, as it is still incredibly Democratic turf) Paul Marquart looks to lock in his 7th term in the House (He won by a margin of nearly 50 points in 2010). In the Senate race, Keith Langseth opted to reture after 4 decades in St. Paul. Popular 10-year incumbent Representative Kent Eken is looking for a promotion in his stead. This is a very tough district for Republicans, but they did score a solid recruit in former Bullfalo Bill standout, Phil Hansen. It is just a hill too tall for a Republican here in all but the most perfect of storms.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Likely D
District 5: The amalgam district. 5B is very much an Iron Range district, and 5A is decisively NOT. I honestly had no idea how the cards would fall when it came to candidates here. So many people were drawn in with other people, that it really was quite the trip seeing that musical chairs take place. I hold this district near and dear to my heart, and I had briefly advised a potential candidate here this year (who bowed out when he was paired with Anzelc, who happens to be my former boss). My grandfather and my eldest sister live here. This district is one of the 3 or 4 I know better than any political subdivision anywhere. Alright, enough about me and the sentiment for this district. On the senate side, incumbent Tom Saxhaug is the prohibitive favorite against his token primary opponent, as well as against fellow incumbent senator John Carlson. Carlson's district was completely dismantled, and he lives on the far western edge in Bemidji, which is one of the DFL centers in this district. Saxhaug is immensely popular in Grand Rapids. There simply aren't enough center to center right voters in Cass County to give Carlson much of a chance. On the House side, the picture is a bit murkier. 5A has one of the marquee matchups of the entire state. Two popular incumbents are running in a district that resembles neither of their current districts. The lean of the district is distinctly DFL (although much less so than 5B), but Howes is a very strong Republican. Persell is no pushover himself. This will come down to Bemidji vs. Cass County, and the outcome won't be known til at least election night. 5B has another pair of incumbents, in DFLer Tom Anzelc and Republican Carolyn McElfatrick. This is an Itasca County based district, and Alzelc is quite popular here. McElfatrick is no Larry Howes, but she is an incumbent. This district is much bluer than its next door neighbor, and there is no real source of Republican votes like there is next door. It is hard to see Anzelc even in a close race. But incumbency is something, which is the only thing that keeps this ranking from pure Safe D.
Senate: Likely D
House A: Toss-up (This will be a fun one.)
House B: Likely D
District 6: Heart of the Iron Range. My childhood friend Carly Melin will return to St. Paul for her first full term in 6A (she served the vast majority of this term following the special election to replace Ton Sertich). In 6B, there is another retirement that saddens me. Tom Rukavina is one of the nicest, fieriest, most sincere people you will ever meet. He has been a force in St. Paul for decades, and even though his seat will be filled, he won't be replaced. Oddly, there is a Republican PRIMARY here, which no one can remember the last one of those in the Iron Range. There is also a DFL primary for a lifetime seat. There was no party endorsement, and I don't really have a preference between any of them. That seems to be the general consensus among the local powerbrokers.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D
Disdtrict 7: Duluth. Duluth is a mini-San Francisco, and the hub of the Iron Range. In the senate race, Roger Reinert will continue his tenure after succeeding now-Lt. Governor Yvonne Pretter-Solon. Representatives Kerry Gauthier and Tom Huntley will also be reelected with little fanfare. Although Huntley drew a primary opponent, I guess. It won't matter though.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D
District 8: Amy Klobuchar lost this district. That is all you really need to know about the political leanings of this area. In 8A, long time GOP Representative Bud Nornes drew token opposition in an Air Force veteran. Senator Bill Ingerbrigtsen is in no danger from Some Dude Dan Skogen. However, district 8B is the home of one Mary Franson. Franson has been making headlines in less than flattering ways in her first term in the House. She is a lot like Michele Bachmann, except the ability to fundraise copious amounts of money. The word on the street is her presence is making this district much more competitive than it ought to be. Bob Cunniff has local backing, and is well known locally from his 3 decades as football coach of the largest high school and in the district. He also has his own show on a local radio station. He is as good of a candidate as the DFL could hope for here, as the bench is quite thin.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Lean R
District 9: This district didn't really exist before. But it is nominally Republican even at the local level. Although there certainly are DFLers than can and have won here. In the Senate race, there is a solid matchup in incumbent Republican Paul Gazelka, who is a freshman, but previously served in the House before being swept out in 2006. And Al Doty, who is a former State Rep, having won election twice in a very unfriendly district, before not being able to hold on against the 2010 Red Wave. The natural tilt of the district is marginally Republican, but the candidates are both top notch. Conversely in 9A, there really aren't any strong candidates. It is Some Dude vs. Some Dude. The district is the more Republican of the two House districts, so edge to Republican Mark Anderson. There is a similar story in 9B. Republican Ron Kresha is an unknown businessman. On the DFL side, there is a living breathing office holder in the form of Pierz City Counselman Adrian Welle. This is the more DFL of the two districts, and locally is really closely divided. I don't know enough about the intricacies of this race to really lean one way or another
Senate: Lean R
House A: Likely R
House B: Toss-up
District 10: Another new district: This is a really marginal one. With Aitkin leaning D, and Crow Wing leaning R. In the senate, there are 3 really unimpressive candidates. There are two DFLers and one Republican. Carrie Ruud, the Republican, is running on a culture warrior platform. This plays well in some areas, but this may not be one of them. But until the matchup is finalized in August, we really won't know who should come out on top in the Senate. John Ward, the Representative in 10A is in good position against a Some Dude(tte). 10A is the more Republican of the two districts, but Ward has been representing the Brainerd area for 3 terms already. Over in the more DFL 10B, there is a name that popped out of NOWHERE, former Senator David Schaaf, the former chairman of the Government Operations committee is running for State House. Now, Schaaf was last seen in St. Paul in 1980(!). He is only in his mid 60s now, but this get was quite the coup for the DFL, and likely puts this one out of reach for Republicans
Senate: Toss-up
House A: Likely D
House B: Likely D
District 11: This district is based south of Duluth. The northern part of the district has a decidedly Iron Range flavor, and the southern portion is North Woods, but no Iron Range (picture the Venn diagram). The DFL is absolutely dominant in Carlton County, and has a fair presence in the southern part of this district as well. In the senate, Tony Lourey won't have any trouble. I heard that I am somehow related to him through marriage or something, but I don't know him well. On the House side, there are two open seats. In 11A, it is going to go to the winner of the DFL primary. In 11B, with the retirement of Bill Hilty, it becomes more competitive. The district still has a natural leftward lean, but it is certainly within reach for a Republican now.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Lean D
District 12: This is old school Farmer Labor country, specifically from the Farmer faction. This is Peterson Country. Currently, this is one area that the DFL prospects dim as time goes on. Politics isn't a zero sum game, but as the DFL gains in some of the suburbs, the "F" faction of the DFL is dying off. Boy Wonder (can I say that even though he is nearly 40?) Torrey Westrom is looking for a promotion to the senate. Westrom was first elected to the House in 1996, at the ripe old age of 23. Westrom is a prohibitive favorite in the senate race. Oh yea, he is completely blind, and has been for his whole life. On the House side in 12A, Elbow Lake mayor Jay McNamer (DFL) is running against Brandon City Counselman Scott Dutcher. Elbow Lake is twice the size of Brandon, although neither is terribly large. The IP is running a candidate here that I know nothing about. There are too many variables to really make a good judgment yet. 12B is much much much more Republican than 12A, and Paul Anderson hasn't done anything to upset voters. He is safe
Senate: Likely R
House A: Toss-up
House B: Safe R
District 13: This is more farm county surrounding St. Cloud. This should be Republican turf, and for the most part it is. However there is a guy by the name of Larry Hosch that doesn't believe it, and he won in spite of this. Unfortunately, Hosch has hung it up (for now). He is young, aggressive, and an 8 year member despite being the ripe old age of 34. He will be back in politics I am sure, but it won't be this cycle. Senate President Michelle Fischbach is in no danger. And neither is freshman Representative Tim O'Driscoll
Senate: Safe R
House A: Likely R
House B: Safe R
District 14: Republicans are not going to be pleased with this. Republicans pray and pray that St. Cloud will be diluted among the local Republican areas. That didn't happen. In the Senate Tarryl Clark chose to continue with her kamikaze mission to Congress instead of taking out Senator John Peterson. Instead, Peterson drew Some Dude level opposition. This is not safe for Peterson, but this makes it a lot harder for the DFL to take him out. In 14A, Steven Gottwalt (GOP) is a strong incumbent in a marginal center-rightdistrict. This district really does not resemble his current district, even though the lines didn't change much on a map, where the lines land matter here. In 14B, King Banaian (yes, that is his REAL name) is facing a tough reelection bid in an unfriendly district. Banaian is facing a young untested opponent, but Zach Dorholt is getting a surprising amount of institutional backing. I am cautiously optimistic about this race, if for no other reason the political leanings of St. Cloud proper
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Toss-up
District 15: This is a Republican area, and the DFL didn't put up any strong candidates. Brown, Newberger, and O'Neill are all going to win in walks
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 16: This is basically a southern bank Minnesota River Valley district, and it really can't be compared to the old districts, so it's basically new. 16 A is ancestrally DFL, but is represented by a Republican. Marty Siefert represented this area for a while, so it is certainly not adverse to Republicans. The DFL scored another big candidate from another era here. Former Representative Ted Suss is looking to make a comeback after a 34 year sabbatical. He will take on freshman Republican Gary Dahms. This is friendly turf for Dahms, so he SHOULD win, but Suss keeps it from being safe. It should be noted that Suss initially declared to run in 16A, but upon the death of Gary Kubly, and the drawing of the new districts, he went for senate instead. The DFL didn't put up any strong candidates for either House seat, so Swedzinski and Torkelson are safe.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 17: We cross the river to the north side of the Minnesota River here. This is substantially more DFL leaning than the southern bank. In the senate, this will have one of the marquee matchups of the cycle. Lyle Koenen, who was a state representative before winning the special election to replace the late Gary Kubly. This race will go down to the wire, even though the district leans DFL slightly, Gimse is not one of the weak freshmen Republicans swept in with the 2010 tide. 29 year-old 2-term incumbent rep. Andrew Falk (DFL) is running for reelection against a Some Dude candidate. He is safe in the more DFL friendly of the two House seats. In the other (evenly divided) 17B, freshman Bruce Vogel is running for reelection against Jessica Rohloff. Rohloff has a primary, but she will win it handily. This is one of the other districts the IP is playing a part by nominating 24-year old Zach Liebl. Leibl doesn't have a resume to speak of, but the IP line in Minnesota is usually good for a handful of percentage points even if no one has ever heard of you. I suspect the winner will be a plurality decision, with the winner TBD.
Senate: Toss-up
House A: Likely D
House B: Toss-up
District 18: This is where the exurbs meet the cornfields. This is prime Republican territory. One interesting candidate threw her hat in the ring, and that is DNC member and 1998 DFL candidate for State Auditor Nancy Larson in 18A. 18A is the slightly less blood red of the two. Still, it won't be enough to unseat Dean Urdahl from his 10-year perch.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 19: This is a district the Republicans tried to eliminate. The courts didn't slice and dice, and left Mankato with representation. All 3 incumbents are DFLers, and all 3 were elected at the same time in 2006 and have been reelected with little difficulty since. I was hoping that Republicans would pump some money into these races to deplete their limited resources, but alas, Senator Sheran and Representative Morrow didn't even draw Republican opponents. And Representative Brynaert drew a Some Dude opponent in the Mankato-proper district.
Senate: Safe D
House A: Safe D
House B: Safe D
District 20. The northern portion of this district is some far flung exurbs(A), and the southern part (B) is actually DFL leaning farmland. Overall the senate district should be Republican, but this area had a DFL senator 2 years ago in Kevin Dahle, and he is running for his old job back in an open seat. The Republicans nominated an interesting candidate here in FBI agent Mike Dudley. This race should prove to be interesting, depending on how things shake out. Kelby Woodard won a nailbiter 37-vote victory over David Bly in 2010. Interestingly, Kelby has been rewarded with a more Republican version of this district. Incidentally, this drew Bly into a more DFL friendly version of the district. Neither Woodard nor Bly drew serious opposition in their respective races.
Senate: Toss-up
House A: Likely R
House B: Likely D
District 21: This is very marginal Republican territory overall. The DFL really didn't get any great candidates here. The districts are not out of reach conceptually, but it would take a DFL wave to take any of them.
Senate: Likely R
House A: Likely R
House B: Likely R
District 22: This is old school DFL farmer territory, but some of the areas have shifted intensely the other direction. The senate race should be interesting with a mayor-v-mayor matchup in Worthington mayor Alan Oberloh taking on former Luverne mayor Bill Weber. Worthington is the largest city in the district, with Luverne being 1/3 its size. But, the district is now Republican leaning, which should put Weber over the top. Neither Republican representative drew serious opponents.
Senate: Lean R.
House A: Safe R
House B: Safe R
District 23: This is the south-central Minnesota district along the Iowa border. 21 A is one of the most Republican districts in Outstate Minnesota. 23B would have been competitive simply based on Tony Cornish being a very unpleasant human being. But the DFL didn't put up a candidate in the district, the only such empty DFL slot in all of outstate Minnesota. Interestingly, a guy by the name of Paul Marquardt is running for the DFL on the senate side. Not to be confused with Paul Marquart, the State Representative in District 4B. Marquardt is not a special candidate or anything, but the name was worth mentioning.
Senate: Safe R
House A: Safe R
House B : Safe R
District 24: This is a locally DFL leaning area, with an open senate seat with Republican Mike Parry trying to take on Tim Walz. I was surprised to see such low-level candidates go for senate, with only Owatana School Board member Vicki Jensen holding political office. Jensen faces Some Dude Vern Swedin in the senate race. 24A has a Republican primary to sort out before we go to November, but none of the candidates really has a good profile to speak of. Not really sure what to make of that race. Conversely, Patti Fritz (DFL) in 24B is quite popular in her district and she only a drew token Republican opponent.
Senate: Lean DFL
House A: Toss-up (I reserve the right to change this rating once I find out more about the race)
House B: Likely D
Districts 25 and 26. I do this together, as they are essentially mirror images of each other. 25B and 26A are Rochester, and aren't exactly prime pickup opportunities for the Republicans, although DFL represenative Tina Liebling in 26A drew a Rochester School Board Member for an opponent. Olmsted County used to be a Republican stronghold, but it has shifted hard and fast towards the DFL recently. 25A and 26B are the surrounding areas around Rochester, and are currently Republican seats. I honestly think that the Republicans will hold on to these two, although Benson is in a much more precarious situation than Quam The reason being is the DFL has other districts with better recruits elsewhere, but they are by no means secure for the decade. As for the senate goes, I think Sanjem is safe, but I don't think Nelson is.
Senate 25: Likely R
Senate 26: Toss-up
House 25A: Likely R
House 25B: Likely D
House 26A: Lean R
House 26B: Likely D
Districts 27. This is part of the Southern Minnesota DFL strong area. It is a lot like eastern Iowa in that regards. I like to give the benefit of the doubt to incumbents, but Murray is in a really tough spot for the Republican to live. Sparks is young energetic and popular in the senate.
Senate: Safe DFL
House A: Toss-up
House B: Safe DFL
District 28: this is the other part of the southern Minnesota DFL area. The GOP wave hit here hard, and brought in a couple Republicans in a tough area for Republicans to be. It would take another 2010 to repeat that performance, and I just don't see that in the cards. In an open seat situation, these would all be likely DFL seats. But incumbency matters. Pelowski is in 28A, and has been since the mid-80s
Senate: Toss-up
House A: Safe DFL
House B: Toss-up.