Voters in four states—Colorado, New York, Oklahoma and Utah—go to the polls today to pick candidates in party primaries. And in South Carolina, voters in the 7th Congressional District are choosing nominees in runoff elections. Below is our guide to the key races in each state. Since New York is the main event, we've placed those writeups first. (The other four states are at the end.) We've also included an interactive, zoomable map of the Empire State's new congressional districts to help you follow along:
Interactive map of New York's new congressional districts
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NY-Sen (R): It's a three-way contest for the privilege of getting flattened by Democrat Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the fall, between Rep. Bob Turner, conservative activist Wendy Long and Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos. Every poll of this race has shown huge numbers of undecideds, though Maragos evidently decided to give up about a week ago, when he paid himself back a $900K loan he had previously loaned to his campaign. Turner's raised much more than Long, but we're still talking peanuts for a state the size of New York. For what it's worth, Turner's had small leads in
all the public polling.
• NY-06 (D): Rep. Gary Ackerman's unexpected retirement in the wake of redistricting created only the second hotly contested open-seat Democratic primary in New York City in the last decade. Three contenders quickly emerged: Assemblyman Rory Lancman, Assemblywoman Grace Meng and NYC councilwoman Liz Crowley. Meng immediately won the endorsement of the Queens Democratic Party and soon thereafter that of EMILY's List. Lancman has scored the lion's share of labor support, with backing from big unions like 1199 SEIU, DC 37 and the CWA, as well as getting the Working Families Party's formal nod. Crowley hasn't received the same level of outside help—mostly getting smaller, uniformed unions like the firefighters—but she's styled herself as a "moderate Democrat" and has made a play for more conservative-leaning voters.
There probably aren't too many of those voting in the Democratic primary in this 63 percent Obama district, which is why the race seems to be more of a contest between Meng, who's raised the most money, and Lancman, the second-best fundraiser. But there hasn't been any public polling, so it's hard to say whether Lancman or Crowley is the bigger threat to Meng, who seems to be the frontrunner. (Gov. Andrew Cuomo pulled the ultimate weenie move and endorsed her on Monday night, but he seldom backs losers.) Meng is also trying to make history as the first Asian-American to win election to Congress in the state. Asians make up a sizable portion of this district (39 percent), though it's important to remember that this is a diverse group encompassing people from many different ethnic backgrounds.
Head below the fold for the rest of our writeups.
• NY-07 (D): Rep. Nydia Velazquez faces a challenge from NYC Councilman Erik Dilan, though the fight here is one over turf, not ideology. Dilan has the backing of Brooklyn Democratic Party chair Vito Lopez, a power-broker who has long feuded with Velazquez. Dilan snagged a couple of smaller unions, but Velazquez has out-spent him 7-to-1 and received endorsements from Barack Obama and Andrew Cuomo. There are also two minor candidates in the mix who could help split any anti-Velazquez vote. A Dilan win here would be a big upset.
• NY-08 (D): Hoo boy. Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries, a reformist outsider, managed to push decrepit Rep. Ed Towns into retirement thanks to the early strength of his campaign. So what did Jeffries earn for his troubles? A spirited fight from lunatic NYC Councilman Charles Barron, whose history of inflammatory statements ought to disqualify him for any public office. But some unions decided to treat this like a normal race between two normal candidates and backed Barron, thanks to Jeffries' support of charter schools. Barron also learned to shut his mouth and stop praising Khadaffi (though it's not like he ever apologized for any of his past remarks).
A Barron win would nevertheless be an upset, but at least some local Democrats seem concerned—enough to stage-manage a "no, I swear this isn't actually an endorsement" photo op between Jeffries and Barack Obama. Jeffries, though, has outraised Barron by a huge margin and has tons of other institutional support. If he were to somehow lose, he could face Barron again in November, since Jeffries was previously endorsed by the Working Families Party and received their ballot line.
• NY-09 (D): Even though Rep. Yvette Clarke first won her seat with just a tiny plurality in the 2006 primary, no one's tried to challenge her since. This year is little different. Attorney Sylvia Kinard, perhaps best known as the ex-wife of former NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson, raised just $4,000.
• NY-13 (D): Could Rep. Charlie Rangel's number finally be up? The veteran lawmaker scored only 51 percent in the primary in 2010, damaged by ethical misdeeds that led to a formal censure by the House, but saved by a fractured field that featured no one of real stature. This time, a serious opponent has emerged in the form of state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, and it may be Rangel who gets hurt by a split field. Espaillat, whose Senate district overlaps considerably with the 13th, is the only Hispanic candidate in the race, whereas a host of smaller players are, like Rangel, black. Just as important, the redrawn 13th is more Hispanic than before—55 percent—and a quarter of the turf, mostly in the Bronx, is new to Rangel.
The incumbent has spent a million dollars on his own behalf, and much-discussed help from the Campaign for Primary Accountability never materialized for Espaillat, but this contest could be very close, either way. The winner here is an automatic victor in November in this ultra-Democratic district.
• NY-17 (R): Here's a strange little race to keep on your radar tonight. Republicans figured they'd scored a good get when hedge fund manager and Rye town supervisor Joe Carvin dropped out of the Senate race (after an extremely short run) and decided to take on Democrat Rep. Nita Lowey in this now-redder (but still blue-leaning) district. But Carvin has a problem on their hands: Jim Russell, a perennial candidate who just happens to be a raving white supremacist and antisemite. Russell ran in 2010, scoring 38 percent of the vote, despite the local GOP doing everything they could to disavow him. In a low-turnout affair—only federal races are on the ballot, and New Yorkers aren't accustomed to holding primaries in June—Russell's name recognition from his prior run could give Republicans a major black eye.
• NY-18 (D): Attorney Sean Maloney parachuted into this race late, but with strong establishment connections, he quickly raised the most money. But his entrance didn't sit well with his primary opponents, who immediately labeled him a carpetbagger (Maloney hails from NYC) ... and kept on doing so, right through election day. The most likely person to stop Maloney is physician Rich Becker, who hasn't been too far off the pace in terms of fundraising and has run the most aggressive campaign in terms of hammering Maloney. Two small-town mayors are also in the mix, Matt Alexander and Tom Wilson, so whoever wins will likely do so with a plurality. The victor will take on GOP freshman Nan Hayworth in November.
• NY-19 (D): Attorney Julian Schreibman is all but assured of the nomination. He's swept everything there is to sweep, and his opponent, Joel Tyner, saw his campaign implode in spectacular fashion with about a week to go in the race. Schreibman will face GOP freshman Chris Gibson this fall.
• NY-23 (D): Redistricting pulled the liberal college town of Ithaca into freshman GOPer Tom Reed's district (what was the old 29th). That gave Ithaca Democratic Party chairwoman Leslie Danks Burke and Tompkins County legislator Nathan Shinagawa the opportunity to run for Congress here. Both have raised pretty comparably ($220K for Danks Burke, $190K for Shinagawa), so it's hard to say who might have the edge. Shinagawa has pulled in more labor support, though, as well as the backing of the Working Families Party. Attorney Melissa Dobson is also in the race, but she hasn't filed an FEC report.
• NY-27 (R): Chris Collins, the obvious establishment choice for Republicans, must have pissed off a lot of his fellow party members during his tenure as Erie County executive (a job he lost just last year). Local GOP leaders, almost to a man, decided to support Iraq vet David Bellavia instead, or just keep their silence. Collins also eschewed traditional fundraising, self-funding with a quarter-million dollar loan. Bellavia, though, raised less than $100K and if he has a shot, it'll be because of greater conservative enthusiasm for his more doctrinaire beliefs. Collins, however, managed to scored the endorsement of the Conservative Party, a rare example of the Cons taking a more pragmatic approach. Despite his rocky campaign, Collins remains the favorite here.
• CO-05 (R): The only up-in-the-air primary in Colorado seems to be in the 5th, a dark-red district based in Colorado Springs, one of the nation's right-wing epicenters. Republican Rep. Doug Lamborn has had trouble entrenching himself, beating back difficult primary challenges in both 2006 and 2008, and he faces another serious GOP nominating contest this year. This time, he's up against businessman Robert Blaha, a guy who's never run for office before but was able to self-fund more than a quarter million dollars, and Lamborn has been forced to go on the air with ads. We haven't seen any polls, so it's hard to know how big an impact Blaha will have ... though it's worth noting that the (now-broke) Campaign for Primary Accountability never expressed even a peep of interest in this race. (David Jarman)
• OK-02 (D & R): In the Sooner State, the only race on the radar for the Democratic and Republican parties is the open seat race to replace conservaDem Dan Boren in southeastern Oklahoma. Democrats, for their part, have a three-way primary to determine the nominee that will attempt to defend the seat. The conventional wisdom has long been that this is Rob Wallace's race to lose. Wallace, a former assistant U.S. Attorney, does have to contend with a fairly well-funded (and partially self-funded) challenge from seed company owner Wayne Herriman. With a Some Dude third wheel, there is an outside shot at this race necessitating a runoff to settle matters. On the Republican side, businessman Markwayne Mullin sent around a poll a couple of weeks ago claiming a primary lead, and he has a better than 2-to-1 fundraising edge over anyone else in the field (state Rep. George Faught was a distant second on the funding front). But with a half dozen GOP contenders, a runoff here is very much a possibility. (Steve Singiser)
• SC-07 (D & R): Ladies and gentlemen, get ready to runoff. In the nine-way GOP doggypile for the right to contest this newly drawn district, ex-Lt. Gov. André "1000" Bauer and Horry County Council Chairman Tom Rice emerged as the top two finishers, with 32 percent and 27 percent of the vote respectively. Bauer, a man whose abrasive reputation led to two very underwhelming statewide general election performances (including a razor-thin win in 2006), has unleashed a series of hard-hitting attack ads against Rice in the closing days of the campaign. The ads eviscerate Rice for describing himself as "more moderate" than Sen. Jim DeMint—a choice of words that may be anathema to tea party diehards. Rice, for his part, is trotting out the 11th hour endorsement of Gov. Nikki Haley.
Meanwhile, Democrats have a runoff of their own—one that was only allowed to proceed after a local judge overturned a decision of the South Carolina Elections Commission to not count the votes received by withdrawn candidate Ted Vick. The result, though, is pretty unfortunate: Since the decision was only released last Friday, Democrats Gloria Tinubu and Preston Brittain have barely had any time to run an actual run-off campaign. That's good news for Tinubu, an ex-Georgia state representative and college professor, who beat Brittain, an attorney and establishment favorite, by over 12 points on primary night. It's hard to imagine Brittain being able to overcome that deficit, though perhaps lighter turnout could make the margin closer than round one. (James L)
• UT-Sen (R): Sen. Orrin Hatch knew the danger he faced from a movement conservative assault on his right flank—not because he was ever anything less than ultra-conservative himself, but because he committed the grave sin of occasionally trying to work with Democrats. After watching Sen. Bob Bennett go down in flames at the state GOP convention in 2010, Hatch got prepared and did everything possible to ward off a similar fate. When the convention rolled around again this April, events played out very differently than they did a cycle ago: Hatch nearly dispatched his opponents right then and there, falling just 1 percent short of the 60 percent threshold needed to avoid a primary. But ex-state Sen. Dan Liljenquist managed to sneak through, though it hardly seems like it'll matter. Two late polls showed Hatch cruising.