While the part of me that loathes Mitt Romney is enjoying the thick slice of sweet, juicy schadenfreude that Harry Reid served up this afternoon, the scientist/amateur woodworker is interested in the nuts and bolts of how this would play out if it ultimately proves to be accurate.
(Of course, all of this is contingent on Mittens releasing his tax returns, which he will try to stall for as long as possible. But if more stuff like this keeps coming out, he won't have the "luxury" anymore.)
So, for the sake of argument, let's say it's revealed that Mitt paid an average of less than 10% in taxes over the last ten years.
First, what will it take for Mitt to drop out? Or conversely, how little could Mitt pay and still be the GOP standard-bearer? I think if there's even one year in which he paid no taxes, he's done for, but if he paid an average of 8% over the last 10 years, would the GOP keep him? 5%? 2%? And who are the "wise* old men" that would ultimately convince him to do so (because he won't come to that conclusion on his own)?
Secondly, if Mittens were to exit the race, what would be the procedure to replace him? Obviously if it's before the convention, the party would nominate someone else. (While I think this scenario is extremely unlikely, I also think that if he did drop out before the convention, whomever Mitt chose as his running mate would NOT be on the ticket.) How would it work if he bowed out after the convention? Would his veep nominee replace him? If so, how would a replacement veep nominee be chosen?
Lastly, how would Mitt dropping out affect the election? Barring a terrorist attack or something equally monumental, Obama gets re-elected. How would the GOP fare on the generic ballot? Do Democrats retake the House if he drops out? Do they hold the Senate? Expand their Senate majority? Would it be "better" for the GOP if Mitt drops out before or after the convention?
I can't wait to see what everyone thinks. I have to go make dinner for my wife, but I'll be back in an hour. Happy conjecturing!
*Author's use of the word "wise" to describe GOP leaders was only to turn a phrase, and in no way indicates that the author thinks GOP leaders are actually wise. In this particular instance, the word "wise" can be exchanged with the word "white" for a more accurate description of said leaders.