Romney picked Ryan and that spells an oppurtunity to go on offense in key swing states. But this is about more than Medicare. There is an opportunity to hit Romney in the senior demographic with Paul Ryan on the ticket, but to hit him hard in his evangelical base. Florida is open to both attacks and so is Missouri.
Below are the maps to the 2008 elections in five swing states. The information is from the 2008 exit polls from the NY Times. It is difficult to get religious data because the Census does not gather information on religion. There is a map below the fold that shows Baptist distribution as a percentage of population from 2000. It is not an exact match, but without the Census, doing apples to apples is impossible.
Florida
McCain carried the over 65 demo by 8 pts. according to the US Census 17.6% of the voters are over 65.
24.6% of the population is White Evangelical
Iowa
Obama won the over 65 demo and it is 14.9% of the population.
25.4% of the population is White Evangelical
Missouri
McCain won the over 65 demo 56 to 43. They are 14% of Missouri's population.
27.0% of the population is White Evangelical.
Ohio
McCain won the over 65 demo 55 to 44. They're 14.1% of the population.
25.0% of the population is White Evangelical.
Pennsylvania
McCain won the over 65 demo 50 to 49 and they are 15.4% of the population.
21.5% is White Evangelical.
Religious affliation by state
I can't locate the original source of the Religion map, but here is a link to a blog that has all of them.
The biggest bomb yet to go off in my mind is Stericycle. Abortion has been used by the Right as a way of attacking Democrats for decades. In the last two years Republican legislatures have spent a great deal of time restricting access to abortions at the cost of access for women to health care. So if it is so important to the Right and so evil, then let them know how Romney and Bain profited from it. What would that do to turnout in northern Florida, Southeast Missouri, East Texas, and Southern Ohio?
The Obama campaign can make the Medicare argument. I don't think they can or should be the ones to make Stericycle one. That one needs to be an independent buy and it needs to be made right before Early Voting starts.
I've been claiming the Romney campaign is bad to wretched. The Ryan pick feels like a cave to the Right which makes me think they have even less of a plan. Medicare should be the issue to move the senior vote more towards the President. But hitting the GOP in the evangelical vote would hurt. Can a wedge be driven between the Religious Right and the Corporate funders? Its a play to make this election because Romney opened that door all on his own.