PPP has just released its latest poll of North Carolina and it's pretty good news for the President. Obama leads by 3 points (49-46), which flies in the face of Rasmussen's poll last week which had Romney +6. Some very interesting tidbits in the poll, which I think point to an Obama victory in the state in November by a slightly larger margin than his 2008 victory over McCain.
His approval in the state is up while Romney's is down. He has closed the gap to 4 points among indies (a voter group I care less and less about as other diaries have explained). He has a big margin among women, which is offset by an almost equal sized Romney margin among men. Obama is up over 90% on the African American vote. More telling, among non-native North Carolinians, Obama leads by 6 points and is tied among native North Carolinians. Among those who have lived in the state less than 10 years, his margin is 39 points.
The President is getting about 38% of the white vote which is larger than what he had against McCain. I think this is a telling stat. Despite 4 years of a relentless campaign questioning Obama's identity complete with dog whistles and outright racism, Romney is not improving over McCain's share of support among white voters. If it isn't happening in NC, it isn't happening anywhere. If the President continues to stay engaged in NC and continues to run a good campaign, it's possible that Romney may hit a ceiling at 47% or 48% of the vote, allowing Obama to win the state in November with a 1.5-3 point margin.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...