We have another batch of new swing state polls in today and the news is mostly the same -- the shift to Obama remains ongoing. Obama is now consistently polling ahead in every single swing state on the map, and many have him at or above 50%.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics. Visit us for more election analysis.
We have another batch of new swing state polls in today and the news is mostly the same -- the shift to Obama remains ongoing. Obama is now consistently polling ahead in every single swing state on the map, and many have him at or above 50%.
Here are the numbers, followed by my analysis.
* FLORIDA: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (ARG)
* NEVADA: Obama 51%, Romney 44% (ARG)
* IOWA: Obama 51%, Romney 44% (ARG)
* NORTH CAROLINA: Obama 49%, Romney 45% - Obama +14% since early September (Civitas)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 53%, Romney 41% - Obama +5% net since July (WeAskAmerica)
* MICHIGAN: Obama 54%, Romney 42% - Obama +6% net since July (Rasmussen)
Right off the bat, Romney got two VERY bad numbers in Wisconsin and Michigan. Obama now has a 7.8% lead in Wisconsin when averaging all the recent polls together, and an 8.6% lead in Michigan when averaging all the recent polls together. The Romney campaign continues to try and push the notion that these two states are in play, but the data is not supporting those claims at all. Neither state looks at all like a swing state right now. As I've mentioned before, Wisconsin is vital to Romney's electoral map strategy. Without it, he has no margin for error if he hopes to get to 270. Wisconsin was the one state he was hoping to play offense in, but it looks like he may need to abandon the state entirely soon. He'd be wise to also not waste money in Michigan anymore at this point (for what it's worth, his campaign isn't spending much in Michigan anymore, but many of his Super PACs still are).
The North Carolina poll from Civitas showing Obama up 4% is also a key number, as Civitas is a Republican pollster that has shown very favorable numbers to Romney in the past (their last North Carolina poll, which was right after the Republican convention, had Romney up 10%). It is pretty alarming for Romney to find himself suddenly trailing in most North Carolina polls (Obama has led in four out of the last five NC polls). North Carolina is still a pretty conservative state, so if Obama is even tied there, it says a lot about how well he must be doing in a state like Virginia. The Romney campaign was hoping to have North Carolina won by now and much of the media had written the state off earlier this year as unlikely to be in play. It absolutely is in play though, and Obama has a slight 1% lead there when you average the recent polls together.
The Florida number continues a string of bad numbers for Romney from the state -- Obama has now led in seven of the last nine polls out of Florida and has an average lead there of 2.2%.
The Iowa and Nevada numbers are two of Obama's stronger ones in those states recently. Obama's average lead in Iowa is now up to 4%, meaning it is verging on the territory of no longer being a true swing state. In Nevada, Obama has led in 14 straight polls and his average lead is now up to 3.4%.
To put it in simple terms -- the map is now looking very much like 2008. Obama is holding leads in every state he won in 2008 except Indiana. I have been getting a lot of feedback lately that I'm being too negative on Romney. All I'm doing is reporting the numbers, and the numbers clearly speak for themselves. If Romney starts winning in some of these polls, or even improving, I'll report it and analyze it. But that isn't happening. There is an ongoing shift to Obama in every single swing state, in some it's bigger (Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin), in others it's a bit smaller (Colorado), but it is there everywhere.
The reason for that shift seems to be a combination of a few things -- Obama started to break away after the Democratic convention and has since benefitted greatly from Romney's 47% comments. There have also been small things, such as Romney's handling of the Libya attack, his subpar convention, and the mounting media reports of his internal campaign problems, GOP critics turning on him, and negative poll numbers for him. All this stuff has combined to put us where we are now -- a place where if the election was today, Obama would be headed to an electoral college landslide like he had in 2008.
But the election isn't today. We still have three debates remaining and six weeks left on the clock. Romney will have opportunities to regain some momentum (he blew one last night on 60 Minutes by not offering up any specifics or anything new that he could play offense on and further muddled his healthcare message by suggesting that emergency rooms are a form of universal healthcare). But every day that goes by makes it more unlikely that he can fill the growing gap. Romney has got to develop a new, specific message that actually allows him to play offense. If he sticks to the same strategy and continues to just change tactics constantly, expect these types of poll numbers to continue.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics. Visit us for more election analysis.