Will we gain the net 25 seats we need to to take back control? Perhaps. If Obama does indeed crush Romney (potentially by an even greater margin than he beat McCain by, if some of these recent polls are accurate), then we could be headed for a real wave election, in which case "Lean GOP" seats will start to fall to us in large numbers and a majority is pretty likely.
However, if this turns out like something more akin to the 1996 elections, in which Clinton easily trounced Dole yet the parties mostly just traded a handful of seats in Congress, then we could be headed for as little as a 10 seat gain. But gaining at least that amount seems likely at the moment.
The state of the House elections, as I see it:
We came into this year with 193 seats, the same number won in the abysmal 2010 elections, following the trade of a couple New York seats in special elections. Since then, redistricting scrambled the map, with new lines and new districts throwing off the easy math of the previous elections. What is a gain, and what is just maintaining a seat? Do Dem seats that have vanished from redistricting count as losses if they reappear elsewhere and send a new Dem to Congress? And to say nothing of the number scrambling that happened in California and Arizona, as well as general renumbering as states readjusted the lines.
It gets confusing, so here's how I keep track. First, the Dem seats "disappeared" from redistricting before a ballot has even been cast this November:
MA-01: John Olver retired and saved us a primary as MA's all-Dem delegation lost a seat
MI-13: Hansen Clarke, drawn in with Gary Peters under the GOP gerrymander
MO-03: Russ Carnahan, drawn in with Lacy Clay as the state lost a seat
NJ-09: Steve Rothman, drawn in with Bill Pascrell under a bad commission map
NY-22: Maurice Hinchey retired and his seat was vaporized as New York lost two
OH-10: Dennis Kucinich, beaten by Marcy Kaptur in a GOP gerrymander as Ohio lost two
PA-04: Jason Altmire, gerrymandered in with Mark Critz as the state lost a seat
So we're down 7 seats, but redistricting also gifted us with some new seats as well:
AZ-09: the new, Dem-leaning seat as Phoenix grew, Kyrsten Sinema should easily win
FL-09: growing Hispanic population forced the GOP to concede a new seat in Orlando, welcome back Alan Grayson
NV-04: Vegas gets a new seat, which should elect Steven Horsford
TX-33: the GOP had to give up a new Dallas seat, which will elect Marc Veasey
WA-10: a new seat, and safely Dem for Denny Heck
So that's a net -2 so far due to seats moving between states, but redistricting altered far more than just that.
But from here on, we can list seats the old way, as "changing hands" as opposed to vanishing or appearing. And we need to net 27 now. I'll start with the threatened Dem seats, in order of danger:
Dem seats at risk
1) NC-13: Brad Miller's seat was dismantled by a nasty gerrymander, so he retired and this one is gone
2) AR-04: Without Mike Ross to hold this, AR Dems effectively drew a 4-0 GOP map
3) NC-11: Heath Shuler quit as the GOP gerrymandered his seat into the reddest of NC, though Hayden Rogers fights on valiantly
4) OK-02: Dan Boren quit, and this seat will be a difficult test of Demosaur strength as Rob Wallace seeks to replace him
5) NC-08: Larry Kissell's seat was also destroyed, but he might be conservative enough to prevail
6) IN-02: Joe Donnelly bailed for the Senate, but we still have a chance in this now GOP-favored seat with Brendan Mullen
7) NY-27: Kathy Hochul's already red seat got 4 points worse, but she is a talented politician.
This point in the list is where I think we start holding our seats
8) CA-21: a sort-of successor to Dennis Cardoza's seat (who resigned after being drawn out), yet Dem John Hernandez has a huge cash disadvantage against strong GOP recruit David Valadao
9) IA-03: Leonard Boswell was drawn in with GOP Rep. Tom Latham, and it will be a tough fight on purple territory
10) OH-16: Betty Sutton was drawn in with Jim Renacci by the GOP, but she may very well beat him
11) GA-12: John Barrow has seen his seat chopped up twice in 6 years, but he can probably still beat his second-tier opponent
12) UT-04: Jim Matheson knows every 10 years brings another GOP attack on his district, but he still holds the ability to vastly outrun the top of the ticket
13) PA-12: Mark Critz beat Altmire, but he's not totally safe in the GOP gerrymander, yet looking strong
14) NC-07: Mike McIntyre was also targeted, but he is still favored to hang on
There's a handful more Dem seats that are on the cusp of being threatened, but I don't see the GOP as having a legitimate shot at winning the way things are going this year:
CA-03 (John Garamendi), CA-24 (Lois Capps), CT-05 (Elizabeth Esty, open by Chris Murphy), IL-12 (Bill Enyart, open by Jerry Costello) MA-06 (John Tierney), NY-21 (Bill Owens), RI-01 (David Cicilline), and WA-01 (Suzan DelBene, open by Jay Inslee).
So 7 more losses, but now on to the fun part. For convenience, the GOP incumbent or retiring member's name is listed first, followed by the Dem challenger's name second in the description. And as before, listed in likelihood of seat flipping:
GOP seats at risk
1) TX-34: Essentially Blake Farenthold's south Texas district, the GOP put his house in a new seat rather than see him beaten here by Filemon Vela
2) OH-03: The GOP gave up Steve Austria, finally conceding a seat in Columbus, which Joyce Beatty will win
3) IL-08: Joe Walsh should post the biggest loss of a 2012 incumbent to Tammy Duckworth in his new seat
4) FL-22: Allen West abandoned this un-gerrymandered seat, so Lois Frankel is heavily favored
5) AZ-01: Paul Gosar abandoned his seat for safer terrain, so Ann Kirkpatrick is looking strong to return to DC
6) MD-06: Roscoe Bartlett was gerrymandered into a Dem district, and will lose to John Delaney
7) CA-41: David Dreier retired after his seat was torn apart, and more or less reassembled here, which should send Mark Takano to Congress
8) FL-26: David Rivera never should have won, and his corruption should send Joe Garcia to Congress
9) IL-10: Bob Dold faces an even more Dem seat, and should fall to Brad Schneider
10) NY-24: Anne Marie Buerkle won't beat Dan Maffei again in this rematch
11) CA-26: Elton Gallegly retired, and Julia Brownley should add this to the blue column
12) IL-11: Judy Biggert is popular, but this seat was drawn for ex-Rep. Bill Foster
13) CA-07: Dan Lungren almost lost in 2010, and Ami Bera is back to finish him off in a bluer seat
14) CA-52: Brian Bilbray pulled a bluer seat, and should fall to Scott Peters
15) IL-17: Bobby Schilling also saw his district turned solid blue, and should lose to Cheri Bustos
16) MN-08: Chip Cravaack is the definition of a 2010 fluke, and is the underdog to Rick Nolan
17) NH-02: Charlie Bass faces a tough rematch with Anne Kuster, which should be hers to lose
18) NH-01: Frank Guinta was supposed to be safer than Bass, but polls show Carol Shea-Porter headed back to Congress
19) TX-23: Quico Canseco seems likely to be a 1-termer against Pete Gallego
20) IL-13: Tim Johnson retired after the primary, leaving David Gill to face a GOP staffer in a bluer seat
21) MI-01: Dan Benishek has trailed in unanswered polls to Gary McDowell in this rematch
22) CO-06: Mike Coffman wound up with a more Dem seat, but has not moderated himself, so Joe Miklosi has the advantage
23) NV-03: Joe Heck got a bit safer, but Nevada is changing so rapidly that John Oceguera might still be favored
24) WI-07: Sean Duffy was shored up, but still in a Dem district against Pat Kreitlow
25) OH-06: Bill Johnson faces a difficult rematch with Charlie Wilson
26) NY-18: Nan Hayworth was done no favors in redistricting, and faces tough opponent Sean Patrick Maloney
27) FL-18: Allen West jumped over here, but still faces strong opponent Patrick Murphy in an Obama seat. Nothing would please me more than to see us get both of West's seats.
28) PA-08: Mike Fitzpatrick could not be helped by the GOP gerrymander, and faces Kathy Boockvar in blue-trending Bucks County
This point in the list is where I think the GOP starts holding their seats
29) NY-19: Chris Gibson also saw his district shifted our way, and faces Julian Schreibman
30) CA-10: Jeff Denham pulled a much more Dem district in redistricting, and this race is quickly becoming competitive
31) CO-03: Scott Tipton faces a tough challenger in Sal Pace, in a competitive district
32) MI-11: Thad McCotter's career came to a comical end, and now Syed Taj has a real chance against wacky tea-partier Kerry Bentivolio
33) NJ-03: Jon Runyan was shored up a bit, but still faces a challenge from Shelley Adler
34) CA-36: Mary Bono has held this seat safely before, but outside spending shows a new competitiveness
35) IA-04: Steve King, right-wing leader, ended up in a swingier seat and faces well-funded Christie Vilsack
36) NY-11: Michael Grimm has had endless bad headlines, but still seems favored over Mark Murphy
37) WI-08: Reid Ribble seems strong, but still in a swingy seat against Jamie Wall
38) VA-02: Scott Rigell is still in a competitive seat, facing Paul Hirschbiel
39) MT-AL: Denny Rehberg is running for Senate, and the polls show Kim Gillan has a chance
40) TX-14: Ron Paul ends his strange career, and ex-Rep. Nick Lampson is running hard in this bluer seat
41) IN-08: Larry Bucshon faces Dave Crooks in a perennially competitive seat
42) FL-16: Vern Buchanan has never been too popular, and faces good get Keith Fitzgerald
43) ND-AL: Rick Berg is also running for Senate, and Pam Gulleson also has a chance
44) FL-02: Steve Southerland, in a bluer seat and with Al Lawson now on Red-to-Blue
45) FL-10: Daniel Webster faces good recruit Val Demmings, but it's a tough seat
46) MI-03: Justin Amash may face a real race with Steve Pestka
And here's the GOP seats on the cusp of being threatened, the ones to watch for in a wave
AR-01 (Rick Crawford), FL-13 (Bill Young), IN-09 (Todd Young), MN-02 (John Kline), MN-06 (Michele Bachmann), MO-04 (Vicky Hartzler), NE-02 (Lee Terry), NY-22 (Richard Hanna), NY-23 (Tom Reed), OH-05 (Bob Latta), OH-07 (Bob Gibbs), OH-10 (Mike Turner), PA-06 (Jim Gerlach), PA-07 (Pat Meehan), PA-18 (Tim Murphy), SD-AL (Kristi Noem), TN-04 (Scott DeJarlais), VA-05 (Robert Hurt), WA-03 (Jaime Herrera), WI-01 (Paul Ryan)
So that's 28 pickups for us, but with 7 predicted losses and a net -2 to seat shifting, just a 19 seat net gain, leaving us 6 heartbreaking seats shy of the majority. It's possible we may not even get that many, but it seems more likely at the moment that Obama's increasing leads may get us even more, and sweep in those tossups right at the edge of where I put my dividing lines between wins and losses. Those lines are where I think the elections would be decided today, but as always, much bigger gains are possible if a wave develops.