Predicted EC Vote: Obama 313.0, Romney 225.0.
Chance of victory: Obama 77.3%
Predicted popular vote: 51.3% to 47.6% (that leaves 1.1% for "other")
Chance of Obama landslide: 9.6%. A landslide is defined as popular vote margin > 10%
Predicted chance of Obama victory in tipping point states
state |
probability |
state |
probability
|
Ohio |
71.9% |
Flordia |
63.6
|
Virginia |
72.6% |
Wisconsin |
81.0%
|
Colorado |
71.8% |
Iowa |
71.8%
|
Nevada |
82.4% |
Pennsylvania |
92.3%
|
New Hampshire |
82.6% |
Minnesota |
95.9%
|
Tipping point states are those most likely to supply the 270th EC vote, so it is a weighted average of "closeness" + "votes".
If you want to know the states most likely to switch from Romney to Obama, they are:
North Carolina: 40.1% chance of Obama win
Missouri: 15.3% chance of Obama win
Arizona: 12.9% chance of Obama win
Montana: 12.9% chance of Obama win
Indiana: 11.0% chance of Obama win
538
If you see Team Romney spending money in Missouri and Arizona and Montana, that is a "pending landslide" indicator.