Following the 2010 census states were mandated to redistrict their congressional districts, often to reflect a change in House seats due to population shifts. Many of these states are heavily dominated by one party or the other. I’ve chosen to look at states whose 2012 total Congressional votes show the 2 parties very close in popularity - within 4%. This leaves out most states and essentially all Blue states. Generally Blue states are as imbalanced in party loyalty as the Red states of the old south. Any state in which the parties are separated by 15% or more in popular support will generally have almost 100% of the House seats controlled by one party. Instead I’ve looked at the 2012 results in states with close party balance but a Republican legislature and governor that controlled the design of the redistricting - often to their own benefit( I do not assume that very prejudicial districting did not exist in earlier years as it did).
The states that are interesting are Michigan, Penn., Virginia, Ohio, and N. Carolina.
Michigan: total congressional votes cast in 2012: 46% R, 51% D
Congressional seats won: 9 R , 5 D
% of votes earned by winner: R’s - 57% for average winner( 55% median)
D’s - 70% “ ” “ (68% median) Notes:1)especially in a short list of winners one outlier can throw an “average” off, hence the median is offered too. 2) the way to win most of the seats when you only have half the voters on your side( or even less in Mi.) Is to design the districts so the “other” party gets huge victories in a few districts while you win with 55% or so in the others. It’s all about distribution.
Pennsylvania: total Congressional votes cast, 2012: 48.7% R, 50.2% D
“ seats won: 13 R , 5D % of votes earned by winner: R’s - 59% for average winner(59% median )
D’s - 76% “ ” “ (77% median)
North Carolina: total Congressional votes cast, 2012: 48.7% R , 50.6% D
“ seats won: 9 R , 4 D ,
% of votes earned by winner: R’s - 57% for average winner( 57% median )
D’s - 50%, 74%, 75%, 80% ( 74.5% median)
Pause to summarize so far: lumping these 3 states together, the Republicans always got fewer total congressional votes cast for them in the election but they managed - by designing the districts cleverly - to win 31 seats vs. 14 for the Democrats. They won a typical seat by a median 57% of the votes while the D’s won with a typical 73%. Hence the Democrats were successfully corralled into a few districts while their states went “red”in results.
In the last 2 states the Republicans actually got over half the congressional votes - modestly - but managed to earn more than twice as many seats. Notice the winning vote percents follow the pattern of N.C., Penn., and Mi.
Virginia: total congressional votes cast, 2012: R 50% D 48%
“ seats won: 8 R , 3 D
% of votes earned by winner: R’s - 56% for average winner(57% median)
D’s - 61%, 65%, 81% ( 65% median)
Ohio: : total congressional votes cast, 2012: R 51% D 47%
“ seats won: 12 R 4 D
% of votes earned by winner: R’s - 57% for average winner( 58% median)
D’s - 73%, 73%, 68% ( 73% median)
Note: 2 ran unopposed, not included in data.
The pattern continues: Republicans in carefully designed districts win with modest shares, 57%, 58% typically. Democrats win with 65-77% of the votes, again effectively in electoral ghettos.
Overall in these 5 states Democrats had more votes cast for their candidates but ended up with 21 seats in the House vs. 51 for the Republicans.