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• FL-18: For a guy who's supposed to be a top GOP target given the fact that he's one of just a handful of Democrats to represent a district Mitt Romney carried, freshman Rep. Patrick Murphy sure has drawn weaksauce challengers so far. In fact, the three Republicans who filed reports this quarter—Carl Domino, Ellen Andel, and Alan "Gold" Schlesinger—raised just $66,000, $17,000, and $15,000 respectively. That was dwarfed by Murphy's monster $524,000 haul, not to mention his $1.4 million war chest.
But at this point, the only notable GOP name we're still waiting to hear from is former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, who unsuccessfully ran in FL-22 last year. However, it seems that even Republicans may have given up hope that he'll enter the race, since a wide swath of establishment types just showed up as the members of a host committee for a big Andel fundraiser next month. The event is being headlined by the decidedly non-establishment Allen West, but six different member of the House (all women, including Rep. Shelley Moore Capito) and several local officials are all participating.
It's all quite surprising, given that Andel is a city councilwoman in the tiny town of Juno Beach (pop. 3,176), and given how poor her fundraising has been to date. Then again, the competition doesn't seem to be much better.
Senate:
• KY-Sen: It turns out Americans United for Change, which released a big batch of PPP Senate polls on Wednesday, had one more in the hopper. In Kentucky, they show Democratic Secretary of State Alison Grimes beating Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell 45-43, compared to a 45-45 tie the last time PPP polled the state, back in May. Interestingly, after a couple of questions about the shutdown (similar to what we saw in those MoveOn polls), Grimes' margin remains unchanged at 47-45.
Now, it might be tempting to say this means the shutdown hasn't had any effect on McConnell's standing with voters. But a huge heap of generic congressional polling over the last couple of weeks has shown Republicans suffering mightily, so that seems off-base to me. Rather, I'd point out that message-testing questions usually bring up topics that most voters are not familiar with, so that candidates can probe their opponents' weaknesses and figure out which issues to harp on.
Everyone knew about the shutdown, though, and media coverage almost uniformly blamed Republicans for it, so I think its impact was already "baked in" to the initial toplines. And given that McConnell stands at just 43 percent—a very weak showing for an incumbent—I'd argue that the bad news has indeed had an effect.
• ME-Sen: Ah, too bad—at least, from a partisan point of view. Barack Obama will reportedly nominate Jeh Johnson, a former general counsel at the Department of Defense, to head up the Department of Homeland Security. After former DHS chief Janet Napolitano announced her resignation earlier this year, Republican Sen. Susan Collins offered her such fulsome praise it seemed like she was angling for the job herself. Had Obama tapped her, it would have opened up a top pickup opportunity for Senate Democrats, but alas, it's not to be.
• MS-Sen: Moments after state Sen. Chris McDaniel announced he'd challenge Sen. Thad Cochran in the GOP primary, the professional wing of the tea party sprang into action with endorsements. The Club for Growth, the Senate Conservatives Fund, and the Madison Project all rushed to give McDaniel their backing. Cochran, of course, has not decided whether to seek another term, so these conservative troublemakers may just be laying down a marker in case he does decide to bail and a multi-way fight to succeed him ensues.
• NC-Sen: I guess PPP's last North Carolina poll got temporarily shoved aside by the flood of polling the firm released related to the shutdown, but it's finally emerged. Freshman Sen. Kay Hagan continues to lead all of her declared Republican opponents: House Speaker Tom Tillis (47-40), pastor Mark Harris (46-38), and tea partying physician Greg Brannon (46-40). However, those margins are all much tighter than they were in September, when she was up 14 to 16 points on this trio. During that same timeframe, Hagan's job approval slipped from 43-39 to 36-41, but we've regularly seen gyration in PPP's polls here.
• NJ-Sen: In case you were worried, Republican Steve Lonegan, the loser of Wednesday's special Senate election, says he won't seek a rematch with Cory Booker next year, when this seat is up for a full six-year term. While we're on the topic, Dave Weigel offers a good gloss on Booker's 55-44 win, which conservatives are scrambling to pooh-pooh. He points out, among other things, that Booker earned a higher share of the vote for an open-seat Senate race in New Jersey than any candidate since 1930—and that's in spite of the weird Wednesday election in October of an odd-numbered year, a recipe almost guaranteed to reduce Democratic turnout.
Gubernatorial:
• MD-Gov: A new poll from Gonzales Research finds Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown leading the Democratic gubernatorial primary with 41 percent of the vote, followed by state AG Doug Gansler at 21 and Delegate Heather Mizeur at 5. That's very similar to the 43-21-5 breakdown GHY recently found in a Brown internal. I'm not exactly clear on who Gonzales' client is here, though they mostly work for Democratic candidates. Also note that the survey was in the field for an unusually long two-week period.
• NJ-Gov: Quinnipiac: Gov. Chris Christie: 62, Barbara Buono (D): 33 (Oct. 7: 62-33 Christie).
• PA-Gov: State Sen. Mike Stack has decided to pass on the crowded Democratic gubernatorial primary and will set his sights a bit lower and run for lieutenant governor instead. At the same time, Stack's biggest patron, influential Philadelphia Rep. Bob Brady, endorsed fellow Rep. Allyson Schwartz for governor, suggesting, as PoliticsPA put it "some sort of deal" that helps avoid a direct confrontation.
• SD-Gov: Ex-state Rep. Lora Hubbel says she plans to run against Gov. Dennis Daugaard in the GOP primary next year, in a move that clearly comes from the right. But Hubbel served just a single term in the legislature before becoming a redistricting victim last year, and she subsequently lost a primary to a sitting state senator whom Daugaard endorsed. So this sounds like a challenge motivated out of pique, and it doesn't seem like Hubbel has a lot going for her.
• VA-Gov: Democrat Terry McAuliffe has some new ads (surprise, surprise), one of which features nothing but a clip of Ken Cuccinelli delivering those recently unearthed remarks about his amazement that God hasn't judged America more harshly over abortion. The other features a series of reg'lar folks complaining about Cuccinelli's extremism over divorce, birth control, and, interestingly, climate change. That last topic is not one you often see mentioned in political ads, so its inclusion says a lot about where Virginia's demographics are headed.
House:
• CA-07: If you spotted ex-Rep. Doug Ose's name on our list of challengers who outraised House incumbents, don't fret, because it comes with a serious asterisk. Formally, it looks like Ose took in an impressive $488,000, beating Democratic Rep. Ami Bera's $456,000 haul. But if you look closely at Ose's FEC report, you'll see there's a $250,000 personal "donation" listed under the "receipts" section, as well as a matching $250,000 loan repayment listed in the "disbursements" section.
Those two figures offset each other because Ose simply forgave an old loan he made to himself in 2008, the last time he attempted a congressional comeback. (He finished second in the GOP primary in CA-04 to now-Rep. Tom McClintock, in a race that also featured the immortal Ted Terbolizard.) So in reality, Ose raised about $238,000 this quarter—better than his two Republican rivals, Igor Birman and Elizabeth Emken, but far off Bera's dominant pace.
• IL-13: Physics professor George Gollin, who is running in the Democratic primary against former judge Ann Callis, has released part of a new internal poll from PPP that tests both candidates against GOP Rep. Rodney Davis. Both matchups feature informed ballots with a little bit of positive information about each of the Democrats, so we don't truly know where the horserace stands right now, but we can at least compare the two results to one another: Davis currently beats Callis 40-35 and Gollin 41-33.
Given the closeness of these spreads (5 points versus 8), I'm presuming that Gollin wants to use these numbers to argue there's no "electability gap" between himself and Callis, who is the establishment choice and has received favorable attention from the DCCC. Callis outraised Gollin in the third quarter, $241,000 to $136,000, but Gollin loaned his campaign $165,000 to make up the shortfall. Davis, meanwhile, badly outraised his conservative primary challenger, attorney Erika Harold, $302,000 to just $73,000.
• MI-07: There are three DCCC robopolls to tell you about in this Digest, on top of the two we mentioned earlier in the week, including one more in Michigan. In the 7th District, the D-Trip finds ex-state Rep. Pam Byrnes just a point behind GOP Rep. Tim Walberg, who leads 43-42. That's very similar to Walberg's share against a generic Democrat in PPP's recent poll, where he trailed 49-41, though unsurprisingly, Byrnes lags the unnamed Dem. Again, though, no incumbent ever wants to find him or herself in the low 40s.
• MS-04: Gah. Former Rep. Gene Taylor, who held down an exceptionally red district as a Democrat for years before finally getting washed out in the 2010 GOP wave, says he's considering a comeback... as a Republican. Taylor openly admits that he'd switch parties simply out of expedience (MS-04 went 68-31 for Romney), but since he'd have to unseat the guy who beat him, Rep. Steven Palazzo, I have a hard time understanding how an ex-Democrat could win a GOP primary. (Parker Griffith, anyone?)
It's also especially disappointing to see Taylor contemplating this sort of move, since he was courted by Republicans once before, not long after the 1994 Gingrich revolution—another massive GOP election that saw many Southern Democrats defect. At the time, Taylor felt very differently:
"I personally would feel like a prostitute," said Mr. Taylor, who first won his seat in Congress in a 1989 special election. "I still believe the average working person's best interest is best served by the Democratic Party. If I switched, it certainly wouldn't be out of any moral conviction or professional conviction. It would just be to further my political situation, and that is the wrong reason to do it."
I guess even he has his price.
• NY-24: Here's another DCCC robopoll, this time out of upstate New York, where redshirt freshman Rep. Dan Maffei leads an unnamed GOP challenger 49-36. It's not clear to me why the D-Trip feels the need to fluff Maffei at this point, seeing as all three prominent Republicans who'd been feted by the NRCC have said no. (That apparently includes Onondaga County Executive Joanie Mahoney, though I can't seem to find a quote from her on the record.) But this district seems like fool's gold for the GOP anyway, seeing as Obama carried it 57-41 last year.
• NE-02: Okay ramblers, let's get ramblin'. Of the DCCC's batch of five robopolls released this week, the most interesting is their survey of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. That's where Omaha City Councilman Pete Festersen reversed course and decided to challenge GOP Rep. Lee Terry after his callous behavior during the just-concluded government shutdown. And the news is good for Festersen, who leads Terry 44-42 in the one-day survey taken on Oct. 5, right after Terry's infamous "dang straight" remarks. Terry's camp had an especially amusing response:
"They polled at the lowest possible point for House Republicans and for Congressman Terry. Any pollster worth their weight in salt will tell you that is the worst possible time to get accurate data."
In other words, Congressman Terry is unpopular right now, so a poll showing that he's unpopular is not accurate until he becomes more popular. Yeah, it sucks pretty hard to be the GOP right now, that's for sure.
Other Races:
• Boston Mayor: Fundraising reports have come in for both mayoral candidates and here's a statistic that should give City Councilor John Connolly some peace of mind. Connolly hauled in an intimidating $610,000 in the first two weeks of October, with rival Marty Walsh taking in far less at $252,000. Connolly also has a huge cash on hand lead, with $663,000 to $230,000. Walsh does have some wealthy allies, though, with outside groups spending over $1 million for him throughout the race. (Darth Jeff)
• VA State House: We now have our hands on a third internal poll from a Democratic candidate running against a Republican incumbent in Virginia's state House, and the news is once again positive for the challenger. In the state's 86th District in Northern Virginia, longtime Delegate Tom Rust has a narrow 47-44 lead over Democrat Jennifer Boysko, which pollster Myers Research says represents a "16 point net shift toward Boysko from earlier this year." Given Rust's enduring personal popularity and moderate profile, it's pretty remarkable that Boysko has made the race this close.
According to Myers, the shutdown has definitely harmed Rust, and Republicans would be in much worse shape without him, since Democrats lead on the generic ballot 48-42. What's more, Democrat Terry McAuliffe has a wide 53-41 lead in the governor's race. If McAuliffe can finish strong, this is very much the sort of race where his coattails could extend further down the ballot, especially since Obama won this seat 60-39. That makes this the bluest district held by a Republican in the House, and if Boysko can pull off the upset next month, she'll be set for years to come.
Grab Bag:
• Fundraising: On Wednesday, we brought you our third quarter House fundraising roundup and now we bring you our chart of the rare challengers who out-raised the incumbents they're trying to unseat. There's the usual mix of good news (Democrat Gwen Graham smoked Rep. Steve Southerland in North Florida's FL-02), bad news (Rep. Rick Nolan needs to watch his back against Republican rich guy Stewart Mills in MN-08), and funny news (accidental GOP Congressman Kerry Bentivolio was out-raised eleven to one by primary challenger Dave Trott in MI-11). (Darth Jeff)
• Maps: A survey from the research firm AMP on behalf of "hangover cure" Blowfish asks American adults nationwide about their favorite brand of beer, with the results displayed in map form. Blue Moon seems to rank as the most popular, with devout followings concentrated in in the Pacific Northwest, the Rocky Mountains, most of the southeast, and New York. Bud Light also enjoys cross regional appeal, with popularity in much of the Midwest and Texas. Sam Adams sweeps its native New England with the large markets of Illinois and New Jersey thrown in. Yuengling is the drink of choice in the Rust Belt and parts of the South.
Interestingly, Coors Light is the top brand only two states and neither is its native Colorado (where members of the Coors dynasty in recent years have made unsuccessful runs for Congress as Republicans); instead it prospers in Indiana and Oklahoma. Corona is also confined to California and Hawaii. One state does have exclusive loyalty to its local beer: Wisconsin is the only place where Miller Lite is the top drink. (Darth Jeff)
