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Washington Post this morning -- the talk is pivoting away from Obamacare and morphing into a combination of shutdown/debt ceiling bargains. The debt ceiling date is calculated to be October 17, two weeks from today. Wall Street hasn't weighed in very much on Obamacare and the shutdown, but the pressure about debt default will build every day. And as we've learned over the past few years, Wall Street loves a Grand Bargain, and has its favorite components of said Grand Bargain. The White House still maintains that they will not do a conference or a bigger deal until after a CR and debt ceiling is resolved and will not be pressured by the shutdown or the debt ceiling in these types of negotiations. Grand Bargain deniers claim this means it's absurd, will never happen, is not happening.
One interesting aspect of the latest buzz on the Grand Bargain is that the last time it was on the table, in 2011, it was primarily Obama and Boehner negotiating, but this time it's Boehner and Paul Ryan on the Republican side, and Paul Ryan is supposed to bring the right-wing radicals into the fold this time rather than working against a grand bargain. There's more below from White House sources about the claims that the Democrats will not consider any deal until a clean CR is passed. According to Ryan Lizza's sources in the administration, it's not quite as simple as that. Also, apparently Boehner and Reid were the real negotiators in the past and they are enemies, in the extreme, and this is a big reason why deals were scuttled. So Ryan's involvement is a big factor this time around, and reportedly he has been working on this for months, including working with Patty Murray, and also, Reid and Boehner senior staffers have "an elevated roles" this time around.
Focus shifts to looming debt-ceiling deadline as shutdown talks at White House go nowhere
On Wednesday, there was growing realization on both sides of the aisle that lawmakers will likely have to deal with resolving the debt ceiling issue at the same time as the government shutdown. Some senior Republicans said they are ready to enter a more far-reaching discussion over entitlement programs, tax reform and the federal debt limit.
“I think we’re at a point where we need a broader solution here to not only the [temporary funding measure] but also the debt limit,” said Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee. “It’s right around the corner. I think they’re both going to have to get addressed.”
House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) agreed. “The president should start negotiating,” he said. “I’d like to just get one agreement” to reopen the government and raise the debt limit “and be done with it.”
Obama and Senate Democrats have so far refused to negotiate over either issue, saying they have already agreed to locking in lower funding levels favored by the GOP and that paying the nation’s bills — which raising the debt ceiling would do -- is non-negotiable. Broader budget issues can be discussed after the government reopens and the debt limit is lifted, they said.
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The clash is starting to raise concerns in markets that the two sides will not find agreement before Oct. 17. Investors are already demanding much higher returns on U.S. Treasury bills that are paid back after that date, reflecting a higher risk assessment.
This time, it’s different: Negotiations have no place in latest fiscal crisis
Everything is different this time.
The fiscal showdowns of the past three years have all followed a familiar script: chapter and verse leading to a messy but predictable end. First came the pseudo-negotiators, working away on preliminary proposals and hoping to avoid calamity. Secretly, President Obama and House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) would then decide to go big, aiming for a major bipartisan deal worthy of the moment.
Then came the breakup, the inevitable, acrimonious crash and burn.
Finally, the town elders would rush in and save the day with a desperately negotiated deal that no one loved, but which prevented the federal government from going over the cliff. That’s how it worked with the 2011-debt ceiling negotiations and the New Year’s Day pact to avoid the “fiscal cliff.”
Not this time. A different set of political dynamics has upended the old playbook, and a resolution to this fiscal crisis seems especially remote. Obama, Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) remain far apart, having occasional phone calls but no substantive negotiations.
Robert Costa, National Review Online
Journalists from all kinds of mainstream and left leaning media organizations have been flocking to a guy named Robert Costa from National Review Online (NRO) and praising his journalistic skill and his knowledge of the inside workings of the Republican party. I've seen him cited by just about every news organization and there is a lot of interaction between him and other journos on Twitter, where interaction between journos is vibrant. He's also been a guest on Chris Hayes' and Rachel Maddow's show more than once in recent weeks and he's just become the "go to" guy on the behind the scenes Republican dish. Astute readers of news and followers of politics know that it's much more important to know the integrity of specific journalists than to judge the quality or trustworthiness of a news organization wholesale. I guess that's always been true but I find it to be more true than ever today. Even with progressive blogs, the value of information coming from various writers varies pretty wildly, and those of us who consume a lot of news are very aware of changes that happened around 2011 and beyond that make us wary of who we're citing rather than which progressive blog or media organization we're citing.
Yesterday I collected a bunch of links where mainstream or left-leaning or progressive journalists cited or praised Costa's work at NRO, even though it's considered a right-wing rag and it's a place that you'll rarely see me reference or excerpt, but if Costa keeps operating the way he is now, I'll read him and cite him regularly. Here's a list of Twitter links for your reference. If you're not familiar with the author, click on their name to see their bio and you'll usually find their news organization and position. I don't have time to format and attribute these tweets but with the raw links it should be easy for you to get the picture, if you're interested. I'm collecting and documenting this here because there are a number of dismissive, scolding comments in my diary from last night (and in several response diaries that I skimmed) about Costa/NRO/right-wing rag that I might want to respond to today, and I'll be able to easily link them here for a full response rather than type out a separate response to each one.
You can also refer to Costa's AMA over at Reddit yesterday.
Regardless of the fact that Robert Costa is widely respected, cited and consulted, numerous hyperpartisans dismiss what he's been saying and with hair on fire, claim that even though he's proven that he has excellent sources and analysis skills, citing him and NRO is terrible, horrible, even bannable. Which is just a lazy, kneejerk response argument from people who've got nothing specific to use as a rebuttal and who love to shoot the messenger, and who, amusingly, would probably never complain about the source if one of their friends used it or if they found it convenient for themselves or their heroes. They probably would have written off and demonized sources like Al Jazeera a decade ago too, without considering the writer or quality of information, continue to dismiss all content at RT, even if a well known and respected journalist or personality is published/aired there (like Thom Hartmann, regularly and others, periodically) or the subject matter is related to that part of the world and would certainly dismiss anything that came from FireDogLake. Who knows, they might even write off the entire body of work at the Guardian now, just because their perceived enemy, Glenn Greenwald. Anyway, here are the links, for your reference. He seems to be a newcomer who rose in popularity very quickly.
Cites of Robert Costa, reporter/analyst on Republican insider issues at NRO
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Update: I just noticed this paragraph on NRO's wikipedia entry, for what it's worth. I'm not sure if Markos still feels this way, nor do I rely on him for decisions on sources, but I did not know this until I saw it this morning.
National Review Online
Markos Moulitsas, who runs the liberal Daily Kos website, told reporters in August 2007 that he does not read conservative blogs, with the exception of those on NRO: "I do like the blogs at the National Review — I do think their writers are the best in the [conservative] blogosphere," he said.[34]
I'll also repeat some of Costa's stories and tweets from yesterday here about a Grand Bargain. I should note that I use Twitter in specific ways to keep up with and filter news. I use TweetDeck and I have separate columns set up for specific things. In some columns I have groups of Twitter IDs that I follow who I consider to be expert or interesting on certain topics like surveillance, war, hearings, war & peace, et al. I've also been monitoring the term "grand bargain" and that column has been almost entirely inactive for a long time, except for a few stories (including Richard Eskow at CAF) and for a situation in Oregon. Yesterday it exploded after Costa reported about his conversations with Republican insiders and now there are a lot of stories and even more conversation.
Here are some of the tweets that I cited last night, plus some additional ones. You really should look at his Twitter timeline because there are too many to include here. The ones about the battle between House GOP and Harry Reid are interesting.
Boehner to GOP: Grand Bargain in the Works
Beyond Boehner’s office, the leadership is sending out a similar message through its emissaries. The House GOP’s most influential fiscal strategists, Dave Camp and Paul Ryan, are privately reassuring nervous Republicans that the federal shutdown may be painful in the short term, but a budget deal is in the works — and they should be enthused about what they’re cooking up.
“Ryan is selling this to everybody; he’s getting back to his sweet spot,” says a second House Republican who’s close with Ryan. “He and Camp are going to be Boehner’s guys. That’s why Boehner put them on the CR conference committee; he knows these guys are going to be his point men.”
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Per sources, entitlement reforms, such as chained CPI, an elimination of the medical-device tax, and delays to parts of Obamacare are all on the table as trades for delaying aspects of sequestration and extending the debt limit. Camp, especially, is pushing to have a tax-reform framework included.
Most recent thing from Costa (this morning):
This is Costa's story from around midnight last night. There is a lot of talk on MSNBC this morning, including claims from Andrea Mitchell that the Dems are not going to make this deal. She talks about Jack Lew and colleagues. Whether or not they are her sources wasn't clear. There is also the talk from Barbara Mikulski over the past couple of weeks about how a deal on the budget would be done in November. That would require temporary funding and debt ceiling arrangement. She tends to be a straight shooter, from my view but as you know, I think most of these statements and stunts are kabuki and the backrooms have been busy.
Re: Grand Bargain
Boehner may have been “laughed at,” but that doesn’t mean the pitch is dead, at least according to House insiders. In conversations late Wednesday, several of them said it remains one of the best options for Boehner, who is struggling to balance the pressure to compromise with his conference’s conservative bent. On a personal level, sources said, he’s still be upbeat about the prospect of using his CR conferees as negotiators on a broader package — even if Democrats are initially resistant. The involvement of budget chairman Paul Ryan, the House’s conservative power broker, is another reason it’s more than whimsy.
And here are the Ryan Lizza details, supposedly from his source within the Obama administration.
Obama's interview on CNBC yesterday. Note that he talks about the "extremist wing" of the both parties. So he's saying there is an extremist wing of the Democratic party and draws an equivalence with them and people like Ted Cruz? Wow. I'd love to know who, exactly, are the members of the "extremist wing" of the Democratic party.
President Obama Complete CNBC Interview. News Today
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