Human caused Climate Change is likely to usher in a new era of increasing food shortages according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Climate Change Seen Posing Risk to Food Supplies
By JUSTIN GILLIS
Climate change will pose sharp risks to the world’s food supply in coming decades, potentially undermining crop production and driving up prices at a time when the demand for food is expected to soar, scientists have found.
On the food supply, the new report finds that benefits from global warming may be seen in some areas, like northern lands that are now marginal for food production. But it adds that over all, global warming could reduce agricultural production by as much as 2 percent each decade for the rest of this century.
During that period, demand is expected to rise as much as 14 percent each decade, the report found, as the world population is projected to grow to 9.6 billion in 2050, from 7.2 billion today, according to the United Nations, and as many of those people in developing countries acquire the money to eat richer diets.
Any shortfall would lead to rising food prices that would hit the world’s poor hardest, as has already occurred from price increases of recent years. Research has found that climate change, particularly severe heat waves, was a factor in those price spikes.
The agricultural risks “are greatest for tropical countries, given projected impacts that exceed adaptive capacity and higher poverty rates compared with temperate regions,” the draft report finds.
As always the poor will be the most vulnerable to falling victim to the coming disruptions in the food supply and the resulting turmoil those shocks will produce. The Tropics will be the latitudes that will be subjected to the most devastating effects of Climate Change first. That will be likely to produce overwhelming pressure for population migrations from tropical regions to the less climate damaged higher latitudes.
A Closer Look at Climate Panel’s Findings on Global Warming Impacts
By ANDREW REVKIN
Here’s a sample of some other notable conclusions:
Human health:
Until mid-century, climate change will impact human health mainly by exacerbating health problems that already exist (high confidence), and climate change throughout the 21st century will lead to increases in ill-health in many regions, as compared to a baseline without climate change (high confidence). Examples include greater likelihood of injury, disease, and death due to more intense heat waves and fires; increased likelihood of under-nutrition resulting from diminished food production in poor regions; risks from lost work capacity and reduced labor productivity in vulnerable populations; and increased risks from food- and water-borne diseases. Positive effects will include modest improvements in cold-related mortality and morbidity in some areas due to fewer cold extremes, shifts in food production, and reduced capacity of disease-carrying vectors (medium confidence), but globally, positive inlpacts will be outweighed by the magnitude and severity of negative impacts (high confidence). The most effective adaptation measures for health in the near-term are programs that implement basic public health measures such as provision of clean water and sanitation, secure essential health care including vaccination and child health services, increase capacity for disaster preparedness and response, and alleviate poverty (very high confidence). For RCP8.5 [the high emissions scenario and warming track in the illustration above] by 2100, the combination of high temperature and humidity in some areas for parts of the year will compromise normal activities, including growing food or working outdoors (high confidence).
A closer look at the food findings:
Without adaptation, local temperature increases of 1 °C or more above pre-industrial levels are projected to negatively impact yields for the major crops (wheat, rice, and maize) in tropical and temperate regions, although individual locations may benefit (medium confidence). With or without adaptation, climate change will reduce median yields by 0 to 2% per decade for the rest of the century, as compared to a baseline without climate change. These projected impacts will occur in the context of rising crop demand, projected to increase by about 14% per decade until 2050…. Risks are greatest for tropical countries, given projected impacts that exceed adaptive capacity and higher poverty rates compared with temperate regions. Climate change will progressively increase inter-annual variability of crop yields in many regions.
On average, adaptation improves yields by the equivalent of ~15-18% of current yields, but the effectiveness of adaptation is highly variable (medium confidence). Positive and negative yield impacts projected for local temperature increases of about 2°C above preindustrial levels maintain possibilities for effective adaptation in crop production (high confidence). For local warming of about 4°C or more, differences between crop production and population-driven demand will become increasingly large in many regions, posing significant risks to food security even with adaptation.
Whatever climate change ends up throwing at us on top of today’s climate hazards, there are plenty of glaring opportunities now to cut vulnerability. Here’s the panel’s way of saying this:
In many cases, a first step towards adaptation to future climate change is reducing vulnerability and exposure to present climate through low-regrets measures and actions emphasizing co-benefits (high confidence). Available strategies and actions can increase resilience across a range of possible future climates while helping to improve human livelihoods, social and economic well-being, and environmental quality.
Revkin goes on to comment:
One issue I didn’t see mentioned was population growth as a driver of vulnerability in regions like sub-Saharan Africa. So it was not surprising to see no mention of expanding access to family planning as a strategy for reducing stresses from climate extremes, or climate change, in such regions. That’s unfortunate, but unsurprising given how population is frequently unmentionable in the context of international discussions of climate change.
I couldn't agree more. Procreation is viewed through various cultural and religious perspectives deeply rooted in traditions closely linked to those cultural and religious identities. As desirable as a global consensus on human procreation that takes climate change into account is probably is a long way off.
This graph comes from the IPCC
Also see my earlier diary: Unpublished US Report on Climate Change creating a "global food crisis" made public
Food shortages, population migrations, and ecologically degraded tropical regions are very probably the grim realities of living on a planet while we are changing its climate. That's what the future probably holds for us and our decedents. That's a bitter pill to for us Americans to imagine much less swallow living on a country where we are reminded of our relative abundance of food every time we walk into a supermarket.
Meanwhile unfortunately here's where the Ostrich Party stands: Tea party Republicans are biggest climate change deniers, new Pew poll finds