NOTE: Yes, I posted this earlier today, but New York just updated their numbers this evening, plus some additional analysis:
I've added a few new numbers to ACASignups.net, but the main changes are some new features:
--First, I'm "changing" the name from ObamacareSignups.net to ACASignups.net. Both will take you to the same spreadsheet, of course, but ACASignups.net is just shorter and easier to type. Use whichever one you feel is appropriate when reposting.
--Second, as I mentioned last week, by popular request, I've added graphical charts showing both the ACA Private Exchange enrollments as well as a comparison against the Massachusetts enrollment pattern of 2007.
--Third (and this is BRAND NEW), I've added the actual official HHS Dept. Per-State Goals for the 6-month enrollment period! This answers the question about where the mystical "7 million" figure came from, broken down by state (more about this below the fold).
--As far as I can tell, 2 of the other websites that were tracking ACA enrollments have abandoned the project: Advisory Board Company and Aaron Strauss. However, EnrollMaven.com is still keeping at it.
I was highly skeptical of EnrollMaven at first, as they have an openly anti-ACA/Obamacare mission statement, but their methodology seems to be sound. Many of my sources have turned out to be identical to theirs, so I've grown pretty comfortable with using them as a cross-check on my own numbers.
However, there's still a few important differences between their site and ObamacareSignups.net:
--I'm continuing to include Medicaid and SCHIP enrollments, which they don't track; this is still a crucially important factor, both for the success of the ACA as well as from a purely humanitarian POV
--Their site is poorly laid out, requiring you to scroll endlessly to find the states, and they only list the most recent number for the day instead of showing any trend lines or alternative sources
--I'm using a Google Docs spreadsheet, you can easily export/copy the data to Excel or whatever to do what you will with
--They sort the states by Federal-run and State-run; I've marked the state-run sites as such (blue rows), but have kept them alphabetical for easier tracking
In other news, New York just released their latest figures, and I'm happy to report that they're now up to 41,021 private plan enrollees (plus 35,156 Medicaid enrollees). It's also good to see that they're going to follow Kentucky's lead and post weekly updates on the home page of their website.
Having said all of that, here's the latest figures as of Monday, Nov. 25:
Total Exchange ENROLLMENTS: 228,578
Total Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion: 728,210
Total Combined: 956,788
I'm asking my helpers here at dKos to continue scouring state government reports, twitter feeds and news reports for state-by-state enrollment updates (both the exchanges as well as Medicaid).
(click below for full-size versions):
See ACASignups.net for details, including direct links to cited sources.
As for the newly-added "State-by-state Goals" column, if you look closely, there's some interesting things to note:
--In Texas (6.3 million uninsured, 630,000 target) they only expect to have 10% of their uninsured covered by then. Texas only had 0.5% enrolled as of 11/2; hardly surprising given how anti-ACA the Texas GOP is.
For California, they're targeting 1.3 million people, or about 3.4% of the total population, or about 17% of the total uncovered population. They're up to 6.2% of their target so far.
--Kentucky, which has rightly received tons of praise for their state exchange, actually isn't looking all that impressive in terms of their % of goal attained (4.9% so far)...but that's mainly because the goal for the state is so high to begin with (220,000 people, or a full 1/3 of the state's total uninsured).
--Vermont is very interesting. Vermont has about 9% of their population uninsured, or about 57,000 people out of 626,000...and the target is 57,000.
In other words, the HHS Dept. has been hoping that Vermont will have EVERYONE without coverage signed up by 3/31/14. Given that it's deep blue and moving towards single payer anyway, this makes sense. Unfortunately, so far they've only achieved about 4.4% of their target.
However, the most noteworthy state, to me, is actually...Connecticut.
--In Connecticut, the official projection is only 33,000 out of 360,000 uninsured in the first 6-month enrollment period, or about 0.9% of the states total population.
Here's the thing, though: While Kentucky, Washington and California are getting all the attention for running their exchanges properly, Connecticut is actually leading the way in terms of percent of GOAL attained. Take a look--8,000 people covered means they're already 24% of the way there.
Even better, look at the total uninsured number: 360,000 (out of about 3.6 million total citizens). Assuming that they (along with other states that are doing well, such as Kentucky, Washington, etc.) continue to kick ass and ramp up their enrollments, it's not at all unlikely that those states could help achieve the 7 million signup goal WITHOUT the other 40 states or so helping out.
I'm quite serious about this--look at the total uninsured numbers the states that have already hit 4% or more of their goals: CA, CO, CT, KY, NY, RI and WA (I'm not counting VT because they're already expected to hit 100% anyway). These 7 states alone have a combined total of over 13 million uninsured people...but if you look at the targets for them, it's only 2.2 million. If these states continue to ramp up and kick ass, they have a pool of up to 11 million more people that they could conceivably sign up between now and the end of March. Even if not a single additional person enrolled in any of the other 43 states, we could still theoretically hit the 7 million goal.
Obviously it's not going to happen that way--the other states are continuing to sign people up (albeit at a slower pace), and those 7 states aren't going to ramp up THAT much, but it's still food for thought.
Also here's how New York and Kentucky are doing on the "ramping up" thing:
New York:
10/1 - 11/2: avg. 500/day
11/3 - 11/12: 800/day
11/13 - 11/24: 1,100/day
Kentucky:
10/1 - 11/2: 170/day
11/3 - 11/14: 260/day
11/15 - 11/21: 290/day
As a final note, several people have asked me to make a prediction for total signups at the end of November. I'm going to guess the cumulative total through 11/30 at around 400K. This would still be well below the HHS original projections (they were hoping for 500K in October), but it'd be a hell of a lot closer.