Jim Matheson (UT-04)
Any excitement for Democrats on Tuesday over the unexpected retirement of Republican Rep. Frank Wolf (and the potential pickup in swingy VA-10) quickly got blunted with another
unexpected retirement announcement, this time from Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in Utah's 4th congressional district. Unlike the 10th, where the Republicans are still probably better-than-even money to hold the seat, this one is a near-certain loss for the Democrats. Although it's Utah's bluest seat, this is still the
single reddest seat held by a Democrat in the House; it went 30.2 percent for Barack Obama in 2012 (although it did give Obama 40.9 percent without Mitt Romney on the ballot, in 2008).
Matheson faced a rematch against Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love, who, if she wins, will become the first African-American woman to represent the Republicans in Congress. Matheson won a very narrow victory against Love in 2012 despite the Romney headwinds and pre-election polls predicting a loss for him, with a margin of only 768 votes (48.8 percent-48.5 percent). Despite it being a midterm election, where Republicans usually benefit from lower turnout, some observers expected Matheson to have an easier time this year because of the lack of Romney coattails. (I wasn't one of those observers; my entirely quantitative House Vulnerability Index pegged him as the most vulnerable House Dem, back in May.)
Matheson really hadn't done anything to telegraph a retirement; he raised $278K in the third fundraising quarter, not a huge amount, but certainly a bigger amount than someone planning retirement would put up. (Love raised $590K that same quarter, which may have weighed on Matheson, but that's a deceptive number; she's a fan of Allen West/Michele Bachmann-style churn-and-burn direct-mail fundraising, where the expenses wipe out most of the revenues.)
Instead, the rapid and unexpected retirements suggests that he probably took a poll of his district, and didn't at all like what he saw, in wake of last month's decline in Democratic fortunes on the generic House ballot. In fact, Matheson had led a DCCC-taken poll over Love by 14 in June, and a dueling NRCC poll still had Matheson up, though only by three points, which supports the theory that things went south for Matheson only recently.
You might be thinking, "Well, the Democrats can salvage this race with another good candidate." Not likely, because Matheson really was the entire bench for the Democrats in the entire state of Utah, and particularly in this mostly-suburban district. The Democrats probably can't also count on a bloody Republican primary to boost their chances, since Love already has the nomination pretty much locked down (maybe the fact that it's an open seat will attract some other ambitious Republicans—especially since there were some behind-the-scenes rumblings that Love's previous campaign wasn't very good—but since Love was picked by nominating convention last time and presumably will be again, conventional campaign skills may not matter that much).
Matheson's announcement does seem to leave an open door to a future run for something; he says "my time in the House should not be the sum total of my service" and "my duty to our state and our country will undoubtedly continue." The Matheson name does still have some iconic power in Utah (his father was governor; his grandfather and brother were both U.S. attorney for Utah), and despite his Blue Doggishness, he's about the most we could hope for in Utah.
Problem is, there's no statewide race in Utah in 2014; Utah elects its governors in presidential years, and there won't be a Senate race until 2016. Mike Lee, however, will be up in 2016 (and polls showed Lee's approvals are quite low, though that was taken at the height of shutdown mania and before the ACA took center stage), so maybe Matheson has an eye on that and didn't want a loss to be the previous mark on his record going in to that race.