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Leading Off:
• Census: The Census Bureau released its 2008-2012 American Community Survey data this week, but, more fun to play with, they've also rolled out a new feature called Census Explorer. It's an interactive map tool that lets you look at scrollable, zoomable nationwide choropleths or dot maps across a number of different criteria (median income, education, homeownership... nothing about race, though), broken down to county or even census tract levels. You're also able to switch back and forth between 1990, 2000, and 2008-12 data.
Although I can certainly think of more categories I'd want to include, and ways to make the color-scaling more flexible, this is a big leap forward in terms of being able to use the Census site to see data visually. I'd urge you to play around with the site, but if you want a quick taste of what it looks like, here are a few screen shots (courtesy of Conor Sen) of education levels in downtown Cleveland in 1990 and 2010. They offer a very clear representation of gentrification at work.
Also, for the first time, the bureau is making health insurance coverage data available all the way down to the census tract level. That information isn't on Census Explorer, but the New York Times, which has been way ahead of the Census Bureau on the interactivity front, is already out with an interactive map displaying this new insurance data. (David Jarman)
Senate:
• MS-Sen: Seeing Gravis Marketing and Human Events team up for a poll is a bit like catching Vladimir Putin skinny dipping in the Trevi Fountain—ugly and disturbing. But while that image of Vlad will make you reach for the brain bleach, Gravis' survey might actually not be so cray-cray. They find Sen. Thad Cochran tied at 40 with his GOP primary challenger, state Sen. Chris McDaniel. That's not too far from PPP's recent numbers, which had Cochran up just 44-38. Now where's that bleach...?
P.S. Weirdly, we have a dueling poll from Republican outfit Harper Polling that puts Cochran up by a decent-sized 54-31 spread. Go figure.
• WY-Sen: Whoops! Carpetbagging is hard!
Gubernatorial:
• IA-Gov: In the wake of state Rep. Tyler Olson ending his campaign for governor, another Democrat, state Sen. Janet Petersen, says she's now considering a run, though she didn't offer a timetable for making a decision. State Sen. Jack Hatch is currently the only Democrat in the race.
• OH-Gov: A new PPP poll for Freedom Ohio shows that Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald may not have suffered much if any damage from the fallout surrounding his former running mate, state Sen. Eric Kearney, who was dropped from the ticket after revelations emerged that he owed some $800,000 in unpaid taxes. GOP Gov. John Kasich leads FitzGerald 40-38, with Libertarian Charlie Earl taking 6 percent. (The poll was taken just before Kearney was booted, at the peak of the media frenzy.)
Last month, a PPP survey for the Ohio Democratic Party found the race tied at 41. These numbers are a good sanity check, since they show that as ugly as the Kearney episode was, most voters aren't paying attention to campaign trail imbroglios this far from Election Day.
• RI-Gov: EMILY's List has predictably endorsed state Treasurer Gina Raimondo, who just announced her campaign for governor earlier this week. Of the two contenders running in the Democratic primary, there's no real dispute that Providence Mayor Angel Taveras is the more progressive option, so this race offers a clear example of where EMILY's List's mission (to elect pro-choice women Democrats) conflicts with the goals of those who want to see the most progressive candidates elected to office.
House:
• IA-03: Now this is genuinely valuable. Jennifer Jacobs of the Des Moines Register canvassed just about every conceivable candidate for Iowa's newly open 3rd Congressional District and got statements from the horse's mouth about their interest in running. She then arranged things in very helpful bullet-point format so that you can see at a glance who's considering and who's out. (So far, no one has actually jumped in.) The list is too long to reproduce here, so I encourage you to click through if you're interested. This is some really great work, and I wish local reporters would always be this assiduous whenever a seat becomes open like this.
• MN-07: State Sen. Torrey Westrom has all the hallmarks of a candidate for whom the NRCC would very much like to see a clear primary, but businessman Scott Van Binsbergen says that he, too, is considering a bid against Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson. Van Binsbergen promises a decision "sometime around the first of the year."
• NC-06: State Rep. John Blust says he won't enter the GOP primary for the seat being left open by Rep. Howard Coble. Several Republicans are already in the race, most prominent among them Rockingham County District Attorney Phil Berger, Jr. and Greensboro City Councilman Zack Matheny. Guilford County Commissioner Jeff Phillips also recently said he's considering a bid.
• NC-12: Following on the heels of her endorsement by EMILY's List, state Rep. Alma Adams just secured the backing of the North Carolina Association of Educators in the Democratic primary to replace outgoing Rep. Mel Watt. Meanwhile, state Rep. Marcus Brandon earned the support of the Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund; if he wins, he'd be the first gay black member of Congress.
• ND-AL: Democrats so far have come up empty in terms of finding a challenger to freshman Rep. Kevin Cramer, but state party chair Chad Oban says that state Sen. George B. Sinner is a considering the race. Sinner is the son of former Gov. George A. Sinner, who served from 1985 to 1992, so he'd at least start off with a name recognition boost.
• NY-13: Well, after all that, veteran Rep. Charlie Rangel has decided to run for a 23rd term, despite his age (83), an ethics scandal that has tarnished his reputation, and the fact that he came extremely close to losing in the Democratic primary last year and could very well do so this time. In fact, in response to Rangel's announcement, his chief 2012 rival, state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, issued a statement saying "we need new energy" and "new leadership"—a strong hint that he plans to run again. If Espaillat does make another bid, Rangel could very well find himself departing the House on terms other than his own.
• VA-10: Retiring Rep. Frank Wolf leaves behind the most conservative of the three districts in what is commonly considered Northern Virginia, as the region's darker blue areas are located in VA-08 and VA-11. However, a good chunk of that safely Democratic turf was once in Wolf's seat earlier in his long tenure. Kenton Ngo presents some fascinating maps visualizing how the district has changed since Wolf's first election in 1980.
When Wolf took office, he had constituents in what are now solid blue areas like Arlington; as Ngo notes, no Republicans currently hold office anywhere in Arlington anymore. Over time, the district has shifted to the south and west, abandoning areas like Vienna and Reston for Manassas and Winchester. There has been some continuity, though, across the five incarnations of the district that Wolf represented: Leesburg, Sterling, and Great Falls have remained in VA-10 the entire time. (Darth Jeff)
Other Races:
• VA State House: Republican Del. Tom Rust's victory over Democrat Jennifer Boysko in the 86th District was confirmed by a recount on Thursday. Democrats had hopes that Boysko could overcome her 54-vote deficit, but she only netted 22 votes (roughly what we had forecast through some crude math Wednesday, judging by the recount in the attorney general's race). This means that, despite sweeping Virginia's three statewide races for the first time since 1989, Democrats only netted one seat in the House of Delegates this year, and they remain in a big hole, with just 33 seats to the GOP's 67. (Taniel)
Grab Bag:
• Polltopia: Pollsters beware! The Centers for Disease Control is out with its twice-yearly survey on telephone usage, and they find (as they have every year for at least a decade) that cellphone use and landline abandonment continue to rise. Thirty-eight percent of all adults only have cellphones, another all-time high. Of particular concern to pollsters who might want a representative sample of people inclined toward voting Democratic: 50 percent of Latinos, 62 percent of renters, and 55 percent of persons in poverty are cell-only. (David Jarman)