I have been doing some thinking about an issue near and dear to the heart of us liberals (and anybody else who gives a damn about others less fortunate than ourselves): the fate of any legislation seeking to extend the federal unemployment extension programs for 2014. See below the fold for my thoughts on the issue...
As most of you know, Democratic Senator Reed of Rhode Island and Republican Senator Heller of Nevada introduced legislation retroactively extending all federal unemployment extension programs for three months (through March 31, 2014). This extension would be considered emergency spending, so that the cost of the program would not need to be offset by spending reductions (a really bad thing in a crappy and imbalanced economy) or tax increases (which Republicans are allergic to but need to happen eventually).
Senator Reed asked for unanimous consent on the bill a couple of days ago, but that request was objected to by Republican Senator John Cronyn of Texas (no surprise). Earlier today, Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois filed for cloture on the bill. That vote will take place in early January (presumably on the first day of Senate business in the new year: January 6th). Here is what I think will happen when the Senate reconvenes after the new year:
There is the possibility that there will be four Republican votes for cloture (we assume that Heller of Nevada will vote for cloture as he is a co-sponsor of the legislation), meaning that the cloture motion would succeed 60-40. I don't think this is going to happen, for the following reason:
a. The 3-month extension is not "paid for". Side note: Funny that the Republicans were okay with tacking a 3-month extension of the Medicare doc fix (at a cost similar to the cost of extending the unemployment programs for three months) - that is not paid for - onto the bipartisan budget bill, but not an unemployment benefits extension. Hypocrisy is in abundance on that side of the aisle. Anyways, I digress.
b. There probably are at least 4 Republican senators willing to vote for cloture on the three month extension (Collins, McCain, Hatch, and probably some other "old school" Republican), but there will be tremendous political pressure on the Republican "moderates" and "old-schoolers" to stand with the rest of their party. The Senate Republicans want to protect the House (and Speaker John Boenher) from the intense pressure to bring up any Senate unemployment bill for a vote in the House. If any unemployment extension bill is brought up for a vote in the House, it would most assuredly pass with at least 100 Republican and all Democratic votes.
We all know that Reid will not nuke the legislative filibuster over this issue, so this would force the Democrats in the Senate back to the drawing board.
Of course, this is too big of an issue for Democrats (and some Republicans) to let go of, so they will start negotiating with the a swing group of 5-7 Republican Senators to get an extension bill through the Senate.
Here is where things get muddy.
The Democrats will demand that any extension be classified as emergency spending, which it is. Republicans will initially balk at that stance. This will prompt Democrats to offer provisions in the legislation requiring more intense work searches for the long-term unemployed once they start using federally-funded extensions. Say, long-term unemployed would have to do at least six or eight job searches a week. The Republicans will then drop their demand that the extension be paid for, but will demand an additional provision: A requirement that the long-term unemployed search for work appropriate to their backgrounds. Democrats will object to this, as will most of the states, as this provision would be very onerous (and difficult) for state unemployment agencies to enforce. Republicans will drop their demand for the job relevance work search requirement, realizing how stupid it is.
Since this B.S. negotiating will take us to the third week in January, the extension will be expanded to a six month extension. The final bill will look like this:
1. Six-month extension of all federal unemployment programs.
2. Considered emergency spending.
3. Heightened job search requirement offered by Democrats.
4. Number of weeks increased back to where they were in 2010 (maximum 99 weeks), with adjustments made to the state-by-state unemployment rate triggers for the various tiers of federal assistance.
5. Benefits retroactive to December 28, 2013.
The Senate will invoke cloture on this motion (with something like 63 votes), the bill will pass the Senate, Boenher will bring it up for a vote in the House, where it will pass in the House with about 300-330 votes, and the President will sign it in the last week of January.
This is the way I see things shaking out (knock on wood).