Sometimes majorities become the minority. What then?
For those of you who applaud the recent SCOTUS decision to abrogate Section 4b of the Voting Rights Act, I suggest you hold your applause. You can slice it, dice it, rationalize it, and explain it anyway you wish, but in the end this exercise was designed and commenced for one reason only: obstruct minority voting. All the rationalizations about states’ rights, the lack of further needed protections etc., are smoke screens for what those (especially in the southern states) are really trying to accomplish – they fear the rise of minority voting. And, their fears are real, if not justified. Simple statistics and demographics confirm it.
In 1900, when the U.S. population was 76 million, there were 66.8 million whites in the United States, representing 88% of the total population, 8.8 million Blacks, with about 90% of them still living in Southern states, and slightly more than 500,000 Hispanics. Minorities had few voting rights anyway, and being the majority was simple, and dominant.
Today, “white non-Hispanic” Americans still make up 63% of the population, but clearly we are heading in the direction when whites, as defined, will be the minority. In 1900, almost 97% of residents of the 10 largest American cities in 1900 were whites. In 2006, non-Hispanic whites were the minority in thirty-five of the fifty largest cities; and also in about 353 of the nation's 3,143 counties. Indeed, in several states, whites are already the minority – notably Texas and California. Texas, now with a population of only 45% white, is the hotbed of most rear-guard battles to preserve the white vote – and if SCOTUS believes the currently extreme conservative Texas legislature is done trying to create more blocks to non-white voting, they are mistaken.
Going forward, in recent years, Hispanic and Latino Americans accounted for 69% of the national population growth. Immigrants and their U.S.-born descendants are expected to provide most of the U.S. population gains in the decades ahead. The Supreme Court alluded to the fact that conditions today (about 50 years later) are far different for minority voters than they were in 1965. Be that true, consider what they will be like 50 years from now! Today’s majority should take heed before they act so fast.
Currently, population growth is fastest among various minorities as a whole, and according to the Census Bureau's estimation for 2012, 50.4% of American children under the age of 1 belonged to minority groups. Immigrants and their U.S.-born descendants are expected to provide most of the U.S. population gains in the decades ahead. Moreover, whites are dying at a rate in which there are not enough new births to replenish their numbers. Clearly, by an estimated 2043, today’s minorities will be the new majority. Thus, those who are eagerly promoting greater freedom in legislating more stringent voter rules – and obstructions – may yet find themselves playing under those more onerous rules they have created themselves.
The point of all this is not to now try to determine whose ox is being gored – the ox is all of us; and that is why SCOTUS got it so wrong. Continuing to monitor fair voting practices is not a snapshot in time dependant on who is in the majority at any given period; it is an ongoing (and never ending) exercise in democratic rule. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg had it right when she noted that Congress – not the Court – had an ongoing and continuing duty to make sure all American citizens have easy, fair, unrestricted access to the voting booth. That is how and why the Act was first created and passed in 1965, and why it’s continuing oversight is needed today…and tomorrow as well. Indeed, almost immediately Texas Governor Rick Perry stated: “(Texas) may now implement the will of the people without being subjected to outdated and unnecessary oversight…” If you are going to have fair and impartial voter registration and rules, oversight should not be a concern for you.
Already several states are readying new restrictive proposals for voting, including Texas where a new photo ID law is being prepared. If the Court believed all was well regarding the voting booth, and all conditions for fair voting have been cured, they were amazingly naïve. All the states involved will now press new voter demands to the limits, testing what restrictions the court(s) will allow. And should they prevail, the ultimate loser will be the populations of the future. The children who in the not too distant future may be the “new minority”.
As the old saying goes: “sometimes you should be careful what you ask for…you might get it”.