....and just typing those words scares the hell out of me.
I'm looking ahead to the 2016 election and the race for Obama and the Democrats' legacy. Will our candidate keep the Obama coalition together, using the reliable D states' 242 electoral votes as a base for continued Democratic control of the White House? Or could a Republican break up our reliable voting blocs and steal a win?
I'm going to paint a scenario below the fold that I don't think is likely, but seems to be the one possible way to a Dem defeat.
First, let's start with two assumptions: the economy continues the maddeningly slow improvement we've seen over the last few quarters. There isn't another major military conflict or terrorist act, nor does the President get caught in some sort of ridiculous Clintonian sex scandal.
So, if you are a Republican insider, you need to deliver a win for your wealthy Koch-style post Citizens United backers. They've put a bunch of money into trying to knock off Obama, have failed (twice!) and now a win is a requirement. Also, they want a business-friendly tax/regulation cutter to keep their bottom line going in the right direction. Your crazy social conservative base won't accept anyone that hasn't blown the dog whistles every once in awhile, but they will fall into line with just about any R, given that all the pro-choicers are long gone. A younger attractive guy, given that you think you'll be up against Hillary Clinton, with a record of getting the right kind of National attention.
Here's where you need somebody a little different than the "next up" Republican like Paul Ryan. You have to pull in a guy that can take some point off the Dems' advantage in minority voters in the critical swing states. How can you blunt Columbus and Cleveland to put Ohio back in play? How can you get some points in Miami-Dade to get Florida? You don't need to win the cities (you'll never do that) but you just need to take a few African-American and Latino points back, to bring Colorado home and perhaps even pick off Iowa. Now you're over 270!
Why is Rand Paul your guy? Two issues: internet/technology privacy and pot legalization. He's been on the privacy side of the issues of government spying/Patriot Act/Prism and he's spoken about abolishing mandatory sentencing for pot possession. These are two issues that resonate with young and minority voters and the country is moving in that direction anyway!
So how do you run this guy? Endless ads featuring these two issues, scary music about the government reading and saving your text messages, along with a signature initiative to "examine if those incarcerated under these terrible sentencing laws should be released." Given the huge discrepancy of prisoners in this country being minority, you suddenly are talking about an issue that hits very close to home. It doesn't matter if you actually let any of these people go after you are elected. You are just promising to "study" the problem. (After all, we can't cut into the prisons' bottom line.)
Pointing out how your Democratic opponent supported/voted for the Patriot Act extensions to allow PRISM at every debate, you can carve off enough support around Iowa City to put the state in play. Give hope to the miserable families of pot prisoners brings the R share of African-Americans up to around 15%, putting Florida, Ohio and Colorado in play. At the same time, you've got Rand talking out of the other side of his mouth with surrogates mentioning (very, very quietly) his support of "states rights." Appalachia and the South stay in your column. Pick off a surprise "Tea Party" Libertarian-leaning New Hampshire and you've got 272 and a win, without even taking Virginia.
And we have to deal with a Tea Party goldbug lunatic in the Oval office. This scares the HELL out of me.
The Republicans are already campaigning, trying to cripple Hillary before she even starts. She could be vulnerable on these privacy issues. Rand Paul is the most dangerous candidate they could run against us, because he's the only one I could imagine breaking up the coalition that Obama put together. We have underestimated this guy before in 2010 and he has only gotten more attention since then. I believe we need to move in two directions:
First, get out in front of this government spying issue. Obama or some other leader needs to say "It's time to take apart Homeland Security." Secondly, pot legalization and the prison state are the next big social issue the country will shift on. We cannot let the Libertarians take this issue and make it their own, as more and more Americans enjoy a toke every once in awhile. "Law and Order" doesn't win elections anymore. "Keeping my kid out of jail" could.