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Leading Off:
• NC-02: It's sort of amazing. When I think of "tea party flotsam washed into Congress during the 2010 GOP wave," Rep. Renee Ellmers is usually at the top of that list. (Chief competition, among those still in the House: Texas Rep. Blake Farenthold.) Ellmers, though, had her seat shored up in redistricting by friendly Republican mapmakers for the 2012 cycle, and she's since migrated far enough toward the establishment that she was even considered a legitimate possibility for Senate earlier this year. (She ultimately declined.)
But by coming in from the cold and adopting a slightly less confrontational outlook, Ellmers has earned the ire of the movement conservatives who birthed her in the first place, especially thanks to her opposition to fringe efforts to defund Obamacare. And she may also earn a primary challenge from Chatham County Republican Party chair Jim Duncan, whom reporter Rob Christensen describes as a potentially "serious" threat.
Now, the half of Chatham County that lies in the 2nd Congressional District represents less than 5 percent of the seat's population, so Duncan wouldn't start with a huge geographic base of support. But no one knows the dangers of tea partier anger better than Ellmers herself. And what happens when the tea party tries to swallow itself whole? We might soon get to find out.
Senate:
• IA-Sen: The Iowa GOP's already woeful Senate outlook might soon take a turn for the worse. Conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats, who came surprisingly close to derailing Gov. Terry Branstad's comeback bid in the 2010 Republican primary, says through a spokesman that he'll look at a Senate bid and will decide "by the end of the year."
Vander Plaats is best known for his efforts as state chair for Mike Huckabee's 2008 caucus victory, and for his successful 2010 campaign to oust three state supreme court judges who had ruled in favor of same-sex marriage. His outspoken right-wing views would not serve him well in a general election in this moderate state, and what's more, a Vander Plaats candidacy would make it even more likely that no candidate would get 35 percent in the primary, forcing the nomination to a state party convention in mid-July.
• MI-Sen: It really does seem like Republicans are stuck with former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, no matter how much they might wish otherwise. Even after Land entered the race, the NRSC reached pretty far down the list to instead try to recruit Kim Small, a local judge in Oakland County. But Small has now decided against a bid, at least in part because she would have had to resign from the bench in order to pursue a partisan office.
There's really no one left that the GOP establishment seems to be interested in, but I do have to wonder: What's so bad about Land? On paper, at least, she's won two statewide elections in blue Michigan; she's wealthy; and as a former SoS, she doesn't have an easily attacked partisan voting record. The presumptive Democratic nominee, Rep. Gary Peters, is undoubtedly favored, but are Land's chances really so hopeless that Republicans would readily kneecap her in public in the slim hopes of scoring someone slightly better? I'd certainly love to see what their internal polls are saying.
• MT-Sen: The path keeps clearing for Rep. Steve Daines to pursue the GOP nomination for Montana's open Senate seat without any interference. Former Gov. Marc Racicot, whose named was immediately mentioned when Sen. Max Baucus announced his retirement but who never publicly expressed interest, has finally declared that he won't run next year. (Amusingly, Racicot was replying to an email The Hill's Cameron Joseph sent in June.) Racicot also encouraged Daines to go for it, but there's still no sign of the guy every Republican wants to see in the race.
• NC-Sen: Is the GOP establishment, at long last, coalescing around state House Speaker Thom Tillis? For the longest time, Tillis has been the only prominent candidate in the Republican field, but a lot of powerful players haven't cottoned to him, and there have even been signals that the NRSC itself would like to find an alternative—though they did form a joint fundraising committee with Tillis over the summer.
Now comes word that North Carolina's most senior Republican, Sen. Richard Burr, is holding a fundraiser for Tillis in Washington next week. But even Burr doesn't want people reading too much into this. A mysterious "source close to Burr" explains that this is "not an official endorsement" because Burr will "help any North Carolina Republican who wants to come to D.C. to raise money." So is he also going to do an event for, say, Rev. Mark Harris, who just entered the race? Somehow I'm doubtful, regardless of what Burr's camp wants us to believe about his intentions.
Gubernatorial:
• IA-Gov: After a very long stretch in which he made it quite clear he was going to run but never made it official, state Sen. Jack Hatch has finally kicked off his campaign for governor. Hatch has served in the legislature (with an eight-year break in the 1990s) since 1985, and in his launch, he struck a populist tone on jobs and the economy, attacking Republican incumbent Terry Branstad as "a governor whose only goal is to be the longest-serving governor in America's history." (It's a record Branstad's already set.) Hatch joins state Rep. Tyler Olson in the Democratic primary.
• MA-Gov: State Attorney General Martha Coakley finally launched her long-awaited campaign for governor on Monday, making her the most prominent Democrat to enter the race to date. She joins state Treasurer Steve Grossman, former Dept. of Homeland Security official Juliette Kayyem, former Medicare official Don Berwick, and pharma executive Joseph Avellone. (Former healthcare executive Charlie Baker, who also ran in 2010, is once again the most likely Republican nominee.)
Despite her name recognition, though, Coakley has to expunge the demons of her devastating loss in the 2010 special election for Senate to Scott Brown. It's something she openly acknowledges, saying at her kickoff event that after her defeat, "I got right back out shaking hands and meeting people in order to run for attorney general." And she did manage to win re-election later that year (albeit against an underfunded Some Dude) by a 63-37 margin. But holding office is one thing; seeking a promotion is quite another. Has Coakley actually learned from her mistakes—and will voters forgive her for them? We'll just have to wait and see.
P.S. David Bernstein takes a look at the game of musical chairs that's already unfolding for Coakley's current post.
• NJ-Gov: Rutgers-Eagleton (PDF): Gov. Chris Christie (R): 55, Barbara Buono (D): 35. This is Rutgers' first poll of likely voters. Their last poll, of registered voters in mid-June, had Christie up 59-27.
• VA-Gov: Terry McAuliffe is reportedly about to score yet another cross-party endorsement, this time from the Republican mayor of Virginia Beach, Will Sessoms. It's apparently the first time in Sessoms' long career that he's ever supported a Democrat, but he's one of just many notable Virginia Republicans to back McAuliffe. I think the only Dem to go the other way in this race was Mudcat Saunders, who was last seen advising the campaign of John Edwards for president.
Meanwhile, there are two new TV ads out in the ever-hotter battle for the airwaves in this race, one from each side. Republican AG Ken Cuccinelli once again tries to claim that McAuliffe raided companies, Mitt Romney-style, for his own profit. The NextGen Climate Action Committee, on the other hand, goes after Cuccinelli over the legal help his office provided to energy companies fighting royalty claims from Virginia landowners, with a reported $500,000 buy. Both spots center on themes prior commercials have already hit, though Democratic attacks seem to have drawn more blood.
House:
• AL-01: Former state Sen. Bradley Byrne is out with his second TV ad ahead of Tuesday's GOP primary for the special election to fill ex-Rep. Jo Bonner's seat. In the spot (backed by a reported $60,000 buy), Byrne borrows some of John McCain's shtick and criticizes a bunch of federal spending programs that are designed to sound as dopey as possible ("robotic squirrels, money for a circus foundation, futuristic food menu for Mars"). But he's not actually anti-earmark: Byrne complains that because of these "boondoggles," "important jobs projects, like a new I-10 span, go unfunded." A Keynesian running in a Republican primary! Ah, if only.
• MI-14: Former Gov. Jennifer Granholm has a message to you, Rudy: She's endorsing state Rep. Rudy Hobbs in the Democratic primary for Rep. Gary Peters' Detroit-area seat in Congress. A bit to my surprise, the contest here has been a bit slow to develop—ordinarily, you'd expect interest to run high for a safe, open blue seat. Several prominent names are still considering, but so far only a few other candidates are actually in the race, including former Obama Energy Dept. official Steve Dunwoody, Lathrup Village Councilwoman Kelly Garrett, and, ironically enough, a former Granholm staffer, Jessica McCall, who just announced her entry. Guess there's a message for her, too.
Other Races:
• Boston Mayor: As Boston's Sept. 26 mayoral primary rapidly approaches, the University of New Hampshire has a new poll of the race. The primary features all twelve candidates running on a single ballot, with the top-two vote-getters advancing to the November general election. Who those two individuals may be remains anyone's guess. Since so many credible candidates are running, here is a quick who's who with the candidates' percentage of the vote in parentheses. (More information about the candidates can be found at WBUR's excellent summary page).
• John Connolly: At-large city councilor (15)
• Daniel Conley: Suffolk County district attorney (10)
• Charlotte Golar Richie: YouthBuild USA executive, former state rep. (only woman in race) (10)
• Marty Walsh: State rep. (10)
• Robert Consalvo: City councilor (6)
• Felix Arroyo: At-Large city councilor (only Hispanic in the race) (6)
• John Barros: Dudley Street Neighborhood Initiative executive, former school committee member (6)
• Michael Ross: City councilor (5)
• Bill Walczak: Businessman (4)
• Charles Yancey: City councilor (3)
• Charles Clemons: Radio host (2)
• David James Wyatt: Some Dude (only non-Democrat in the race) (0)
With so many candidates fighting for the second place spot and 24 percent undecided, it looks like next Tuesday's primary will be quite unpredictable. Assuming Connolly advances to November, it looks like he'll start with an advantage: He sports by far the best favorability rating, with 47 percent seeing him positively to only 14 percent with a negative view. (Darth Jeff)
• FL-St. House: A new poll out from Hamilton Campaigns (a Democratic pollster) confirms what was already largely speculated: Democrats have a very good shot at picking up a seat in next month's special election in the Florida legislature. The survey shows Democrat Amanda Murphy leading Republican pastor Bill Gunter by a point, 40-39. On both the generic and informed ballot tests (and, it must be noted, this informed ballot was very fair), Murphy's lead expands to 3-4 percent.
The 36th district is in western Pasco County, and includes the city of New Port Richey. The previous occupant, veteran Republican Mike Fasano, left the seat when he was appointed county tax collector by Gov. Rick Scott. Something of a maverick, Fasano pointedly refused to endorse any of his potential GOP successors. The special primary election is today, and Gunter is favored. The general election will be October 15th. Republicans have a 75-44 edge in the Florida House. (Steve Singiser)
• NYC Mayor: Facing a steep vote deficit, an opponent who'd remained just out of runoff territory since election night, and a mass exodus of supporters flocking to the front-runner, former New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson conceded the Democratic primary for mayor to Public Advocate Bill de Blasio on Monday morning. Thompson, who finished with about 26 percent of the vote, left the race a good team player, endorsing de Blasio at a press conference at City Hall. De Blasio had already begun looking toward the general election and wrangling with Republican nominee Joe Lhota, but now he can do so with his entire party united behind him.
Thompson had repeatedly said last week that he would wait until all votes had been counted in case de Blasio fell below the 40 percent mark, forcing a runoff. But preliminary numbers from the Board of Elections' voting machine recanvass actually found de Blasio's vote share increasing, making a second round look like a very dim possibility. In the unlikely event that the forthcoming tally of absentee and provisional ballots knocks de Blasio under 40, a runoff would formally be held, but presumably Thompson wouldn't actively campaign. (And a citywide runoff is already happening anyway, for the Democratic nomination for public advocate.)
• Seattle Mayor: SurveyUSA is out with the first poll of the Emerald City's mayoral race since the August primary, and it finds what most observers expected: State Sen. Ed Murray is vacuuming up most of the voters who opted for someone other than Murray or incumbent Mike McGinn in the primary. After winning the primary 30-27, Murray now leads McGinn 52-30, despite the fact that Seattleites actually seem to be in a good mood: responses are 44/39 on the "right track" question. If you think Murray's gains seem a little lopsided, though, you're not alone: Even Murray's camp is downplaying expectations in the wake of the poll. (David Jarman)
• Special Elections: As always, Johnny Longtorso previews this week's legislative special election action:
California AD-45: This is an open Democratic seat (that went 65-33 Obama in 2012) located in the San Fernando Valley. There are 11 candidates on the ballot, including seven Democrats: Elizabeth Badger, Damian Carroll, Matt Dababneh, Dennis De Young (not the erstwhile Styx keyboardist), Jeff Ebenstein, Andra Hoffman, and Dan McCrory. Three Republicans are also on the ballot, Armineh Chelebian, Chris Kolski, and Susan Shelley. There is also one independent, Eric Lewis. Two of the Republicans have run for office before: Kolski was the Republican nominee in 2012, losing 63-37 to the prior incumbent, and Shelley got 4 percent in the epic Berman-Sherman 2012 slugfest. Lewis appears to be the only elected officeholder; he serves on the Winnetka Neighborhood Council.
And a quick note that there's also a special for California's SD-26, but it's essentially a coronation for Democratic Assemblywoman Holly Mitchell; her only opponent is Democrat Mervin Evans, who ran for the State Senate in 2012 (in a different district) and got 28% against the incumbent.
New Hampshire House, Hillsborough-14: This is an open Democratic seat located in the 7th ward of Manchester. The candidates are Democrat Mary Heath, a retired educator, and Republican Ross Terrio, who ran for this seat in 2012 and got 21 percent (it's a two-seat district; the winners, both Democrats, each received 29 percent). This district went 57-42 Obama and 54-43 Hassan in 2012.
Grab Bag:
• Maps: Here's a diverting collection of world maps on an eclectic range of subjects, ranging from "where Google Street View is available" to "most popular alcoholic drink by country." I also really liked the ancient supercontinent of Pangaea illustrated with modern national borders.
• Site News: I'm very pleased to announce that longtime community member Darth Jeff (aka Jeff Singer) is joining Daily Kos Elections as a contributing editor. Jeff has been a major part of our ongoing project to provide presidential election results for the legislative districts in all 50 states, and he also has a keen eye for spotting relevant news stories on candidates and elections. So expect to see more of Jeff—whether it's providing quick hits in the Digest, writing stand-alone posts on a wide range of topics, or (most definitely) giving us new pres-by-LD data—and please give him a big welcome!