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• NYC Mayor: Well, here we are: Public Advocate Bill de Blasio is out of runoff territory, according to Quinnipiac's newest survey—the first public poll of any kind to show any candidate clearing the magic 40 percent mark in next week's Democratic primary for mayor. De Blasio now sits at 43 percent, up from 36 a week ago, while former Comptroller Bill Thompson remains at 20 and City Council Speaker Christine Quinn slips to 18 from 21, moving her into third place.
While de Blasio would avoid a runoff with results like these, even if one took place, Quinnipiac shows him with outsize margins against both of his potential foes. De Blasio leads Quinn 66-25 (up from 59-30) and Thompson 56-36 (up from 52-36). If you want proof that de Blasio would almost certainly prefer to face the former rather than the latter if a second round of voting were required, take note of this: Thompson also crushes Quinn in a one-on-one scenario, 59-33.
De Blasio is also out with what is probably his final TV ad, a stridently progressive spot in which he addresses a diner full of people saying, "If you live on Park Avenue, you got everything you need. Nannies and housekeepers...." then chastising Mike Bloomberg for "tak[ing] care of Wall Street, not middle class people, working class people, poor people." The second half features a narrator describing de Blasio's priorities, such as taxing "the wealthy to fund pre-K and after-school." It appears that Quinn and Thompson have not released any new ads in over a week.
Senate:
• AK-Sen: Local pollster Hays Research is dribbling out the results of a survey they took on Aug. 14 and 15 verrry slowly—one topline at a time. A couple of weeks ago, they announced that Democratic Sen. Mark Begich held a 55-37 lead (PDF) over ex-Gov. Sarah Palin; on Tuesday, results from that same poll put Begich up 50-39 (PDF) versus Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (who, unlike Palin, is actually running). These numbers seem far too gaudy for the incumbent, especially compared to a mid-summer PPP poll that showed him edging Treadwell just 44-40.
• NH-Sen, -Gov: In a surprise to the GOP establishment, state Sen. (and ex-Rep.) Jeb Bradley announced on Tuesday that he won't run for statewide office in 2014, citing family health issues. Bradley had long been eyeing a bid against freshman Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, but according to analyst John DiStaso, power-brokers had more recently pushed Bradley to challenge first-term Gov. Maggie Hassan instead.
Now he won't pursue either contest, leaving Republicans without a single announced candidate for Senate or governor. However, Bradley's statement left open the possibility that he might seek re-election or try to wrest back his old House seat from Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. But if Bradley does run Congress (or call it quits), he'd give Democrats a great shot at picking up his state Senate seat. Barack Obama lost it just 50-49 last year, and Hassan actually carried it 52-46. Republicans only hold the chamber by a 13-11 margin, so a Bradley departure would help Democrats take the Senate back.
Gubernatorial:
• GA-Gov: Democrats have landed their first candidate to take on Gov. Nathan Deal, former state Sen. and former DeKalb County Commissioner Connie Stokes. Others are still looking at the race, though, including state Rep. Scott Holcomb.
Meanwhile, Deal also just received a primary challenge from state School Superintendent John Barge, who'd been contemplating a bid since last month. However, a recent PPP poll showed Barge, despite holding statewide office, to be an extreme longshot.
• NJ-Gov: Gov. Chris Christie has decided to opt in to New Jersey's public financing program, meaning he'll be eligible for about $8 million in matching funds for the general election, to go along with the $4.1 million he's raised from private donors. It also means that Christie will be required to participate in two debates with his Democratic opponent, state Sen. Barbara Buono, who has lagged Christie by wide margins both in fundraising and in the polls.
• OR-Gov: Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber still hasn't announced his re-election plans, but apparently he intends to do so next month. At a Labor Day picnic earlier this week, though, reporter Jeff Mapes says that Kitzhaber's remarks "included several campaign-ready lines" and adds that the incumbent is "generally expected to run again." Kitzhaber served two terms from 1995 to 2003, but was barred by term limits from seeking a third consecutive term. However, he returned to office with a narrow victory in 2010.
House:
• ME-02: Several Republicans have announced their plans for Maine's open 2nd District congressional seat in the wake of former state Senate President Kevin Raye's entry into the GOP primary. State Rep. Alex Willette is dropping out, while former state House Majority Leader Josh Tardy says he doesn't plan to run. However, one candidate, former state Sen. Richard Rosen, says he intends to formally join the race "later in the fall."
In addition to Raye, former state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin is also running for the GOP nomination. The two main Democratic contenders so far are state Sens. Emily Cain and Troy Jackson.
• NM-02: Though New Mexico's 2nd is not an hospitable district—Mitt Romney won it, 52-45—Democrats have landed a candidate there to take on Rep. Steve Pearce, former Eddy County Commissioner Roxanne "Rocky" Lara. Roll Call's Abby Livingston mentions that the DCCC previously met with Lara, though I'm not sure how much to read into that, since presumably the D-Trip talks to plenty of candidates without necessarily taking an active interest in each one. In any event, former state Rep. Joe Campos had also expressed an interest in the race back in April, but Livingston says her new reporting turned up "very little chatter" about him.
• NY-13: Prominent Harlem-based pastor Calvin Butts, at an event in which he endorsed Bill Thompson in the Democratic primary for mayor, said he's "thinking about" a run for Rep. Charlie Rangel's seat. Rangel, of course, has not announced his plans for 2014, though many Democrats are lining up to succeed him in case he does retire.
Other Races:
• CO Recall: A group called the Public Campaign Action Fund is airing a new TV ad attacking Republican Bernie Herpin for participating in a $25,000 tour of municipal water systems for elected officials, organized by the local utility company and paid for by ratepayers. Herpin participated—on multiple occasions—in his capacity as a member of the Colorado Springs City Council. More on the tour here.
• Detroit Mayor: After an almost impossibly cockamamie vote count by local authorities, Michigan's Board of State Canvassers certified the results of last month's mayoral primary in Detroit, confirming former Detroit Medical Center CEO Mike Duggan's first-place finish. An unofficial election night tally showed Duggan taking some 44,000 votes, despite running as a write-in candidate, versus 28,000 for Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon, meaning the two would advance to the November general election.
But the Wayne County Clerk discarded thousands of votes for Duggan due to the way poll workers recorded ballots, which briefly made it appear that Napoleon had come out on top. That incensed Duggan supporters, and the state elections board ultimately righted this wrong, finding that Duggan had actually received another 4,000 votes. That means Duggan's write-in effort probably earned him almost 50 percent of the primary vote, a remarkable result.
• SD Mayor, CA-52: Though an early report claimed he would run in the Nov. 19 special election for mayor, former San Diego City Councilor Carl DeMaio announced on Tuesday that he would continue with his campaign for Congress against Democratic Rep. Scott Peters in California's 52nd District. That deprives Republicans of their most prominent potential candidate for mayor, and you also have to wonder what kind of inducements the NRCC offered DeMaio to stick with his House bid, considering he only narrowly lost last year's mayoral contest.
But DeMaio would have been precluded from transferring $174,000 of the $488,000 he'd already raised due to local laws, so that may have factored into his thinking. Either way, though, he'd have faced a bruising race, since Democrats have landed their top option for mayor, ex-Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher, who finished third in last year's primary as an independent and just made his candidacy official. It also looks like the field may be clearing for Fletcher, since interim Mayor Todd Gloria (who just took over after Bob Filner's resignation) is bowing out, too.
So is another Republican, San Diego County Supervisor Ron Roberts, though former City Attorney Michael Aguirre says he'll make a bid. Aguirre, though, seems to have ticked off the GOP establishment and managed to get himself booted from office by fellow Republican Jan Goldsmith in 2008, so I'd bet that Republicans are looking for better options.
