Here's some good news today:
http://www.politicususa.com/...
A new poll of Kentucky released today shows a very unpopular Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) trailing his Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes in the Senate race 42%-40%.
The poll was conducted by the Mellman Group for the Grimes campaign, shows Grimes leading McConnell 42% to 40% with 3% supporting Libertarian David Patterson and 16% undecided. McConnell’s biggest problem remains that voters don’t like him. Sen. McConnell has a 58% negative job approval rating compared to 37% who approve. McConnell’s net is one of the lowest in the country at (-21). Despite a negative ad spending barrage of $40 million against her, Grimes job approval remains in positive territory. 40% approve of her, and 39% disapprove. Given the onslaught of negative ads that she has faced, her net approval rating of (+1) is remarkable.
Grimes gets more of her support from Democrats (75%) than McConnell gets from Republicans (73%). Alison Grimes also leads McConnell with Independents (38%-29%), and moderates (49%-27%). Grimes has a net 25 point lead on the question of who will work to create good jobs, a net 24 point lead on who will work to protect Social Security and Medicare, a 20 point lead on the important question of who cares about people like you, and a 10 point lead on the question of who shares your values.
Usually, internal polls should be taken with a gigantic grain of salt, but this one is important because it has the largest sample size and lowest margin of error of any poll conducted in Kentucky. The poll also surveyed registered voters, not people who consider themselves likely to vote. - PoliticusUSA, 10/1/14
This is the second internal poll released by the Mellman Group. Their poll last month showed Grimes edging McConnell by one point. Now I know it's an internal poll but I would take the Mellman Group's polling seriously due to their track record:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
The survey didn’t include the libertarian in the race, whom observers say could siphon votes away from both candidates and, in a tight race, potentially be a deciding factor. And without further details on the makeup of the polling sample, it’s difficult to weigh the accuracy of the Grimes internal poll against the handful of public polls showing a tougher fight ahead for her — but it should be taken skeptically, as it remains an outlier in the race.
Still, in a conference call with reporters, Mark Mellman expressed confidence in his results, noting his firm’s success rate in previous races.
“We’ve been right when these public polls have been wrong,” he said. “I’m more confident in our methods than I am what the public polls are doing.”
Mellman highlighted his work for New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer in 2013. Public polls showed Stringer trailing Eliot Spitzer by double digits, but his own polling nearly nailed the final margin. He also polled for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) during his 2010 reelection fight, which pegged the race correctly even as most public polling showed Reid trailing his GOP challenger.
Mellman said he’s confident in his Kentucky Senate poll because it modeled “the likely electorate, not just likely voters,” by analyzing “each individual’s vote history and what that does to their probable vote” this cycle. He wouldn’t offer further details on how the Grimes campaign is modeling its likely electorate this fall, however.
He also hinted that the campaign chose not to release earlier internal polling, and that Grimes’s numbers had improved over the past few weeks.
The Grimes campaign promised to have polling briefings with reporters more frequently as the race heats up into the fall, and Grimes's deputy campaign manager Phillip Thomas said they fully expect the polls to continue to fluctuate, they’re confident heading into the final stretch.
“We’ve come out [of the Labor Day weekend] now ready for this race and as you can see we’re in striking distance of beating the minority leader,” he said.
The survey was conducted among 800 likely voters from Sept. 4 to 7 with live interviews via cellphone and landline, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent. - The Hill, 9/10/14
So don't write this race off folks! Click here to donate and get involved with Grimes' campaign:
http://alisonforkentucky.com/