
Leading Off:
• KS-Sen: One of the big downsides to running a serious campaign as an independent is you need to keep to accommodate voters from both parties even when they hold contradictory views on major issues. Republican Sen. Pat Roberts' newest spot hits independent Greg Orman over Obamacare, and features a clip of Orman being evasive when asked about the law. The narrator then accuses Orman of supporting Obamacare, and continues to portray him as an Obama puppet. Republicans have run a lot of these ads already linking Orman to the president and national Democrats, and they'll run a lot more before Election Day.
Orman uses his own spot to once again portray himself as a true Independent. He addresses GOP ads that say Obama and Harry Reid are the reason for the mess: Orman declares the Republicans are half right, but Mitch McConnell and Roberts are the other half. Orman then pledges to only answer to Kansas. Orman's run a lot of these ads already, declaring his independence from petty party politics, and he'll run a lot more before Election Day. With Roberts very unpopular, the race may end up coming down to whether the GOP can convince voters that Orman is a secret Obama supporter, or if Orman can successfully portray himself as a bipartisan problem-solver.
Jump below the fold for more.
Senate:
• AK-Sen: Put Alaska First spends another $565,000 for Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. They recently ran this spot against Republican Dan Sullivan.
• AR-Sen: Three new spots from Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor (here, here, and here). The first is very notable: It features the director of a domestic violence shelter criticizing Republican Tom Cotton's vote against the Violence Against Women Act. The second spot has a similar theme, going after Cotton for opposing equal pay for women. The third spot is positive, with small businesspeople praising Pryor. On the GOP side, American Crossroads spends $1,106,000.
• CO-Sen: NextGen Climate continues to tie Republican Cory Gardner to the Koch brothers and pollution. Gardneruses his spot to defend himself against Democratic ads portraying him as an anti-contraception extremist, before talking about his economic plan.
• IA-Sen: The NRSC portrays Democrat Bruce Braley as a tax-loving extremist. On the Democratic side, the Sierra Club spends $1,001,000: They recently aired this spot against Republican Joni Ernst.
• KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell continues a recent ad campaign featuring constituents describing how he's helped them. Also on the Republican side Kentuckians for Strong Leadership spends $1,092,000: They recently aired this spot against Democrat Alison Grimes.
Grimes herself has a new ad starring the Big Dog himself. The spot takes clips of a rally with Bill Clinton, who references a McConnell gaffe where the senator declared it wasn't his job to create jobs.
• LA-Sen: Republican Bill Cassidy portrays Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu as weak on immigration.
• NC-Sen: Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan contrasts her record on education with Republican Thom Tillis'. EMILY's List is also spending another $353,000 against Tillis. On the GOP side, we have a size-of-the-buy for a recent U.S. Chamber of Commerce spot: It's running for a hefty $1,438,000.
• NH-Sen: Republican Scott Brown features a clip rally with Mitt Romney, where the Mittster characterizes Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen as an Obama lackey.
• OR-Sen: Republican Monica Wehby tells the camera that Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley and Obamacare both suck.
Gubernatorial:
• CT-Gov: Republican Tom Foley accuses Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy of nickle and dimming the state. Also for the GOP, Grow Connecticut manages to cram an impressive number of attacks against Malloy into only 30-seconds.
• FL-Gov: The Florida GOP has a Spanish spot narrated by Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera on behalf of his running mate Gov. Rick Scott.
• GA-Gov: Republican Gov. Nathan Deal features his wife Sandra, a former teacher, praising him on education.
• ID-Gov: This is certainly unexpected. The Republican Governors Association is spending what they describe as "six-figures" in a race that hasn't been on many people's radars until now. The RGA describes Democratic Boise School Board President A.J. Balukoff as a typical liberal tax-loving politician, who would be a "perfect fit for California." The RGA also recently spent $200,000 in Oklahoma, another heavily Republican state that had been looking safe for Team Red until recently.
Republican Gov. Butch Otter has never been particularly popular even in this ultra red state. Otter's initial 2006 election was unexpectedly difficult; his 59-33 re-election victory in 2010 was also pretty underwhelming for a Republican incumbent in a friendly state in a wave year. Otter also had a close call in the June primary, beating state Sen. Russell Fulcher by a pretty pathetic 51-44. Otter has been running ads portraying the state economy as humming along but many voters are unhappy with his various budget cuts.
Balukoff has been taking advantage of the apparent voter fatigue with Otter. The Democrat is personally very wealthy and has been running self-funding ads since July. There's been very little publicly released polling to indicate if he's having any luck. A September YouGov poll found Otter up 51-33, but Balukoff claims to have polling showing him in the margin-of-error and gaining. Usually it's pretty hard to take a campaign seriously when they say they have a good poll but won't release it, but the RGA's actions suggest that Otter isn't doing as well as YouGov says.
Democrats haven't won the governorship here since Cecil Andrus' landslide 1990 re-election, and this is a difficult state for Team Blue to compete in even under the best of circumstances. But it looks like there may be more to this race than we thought. We'll definitely keep an eye on this contest to see if the RGA and its allies continue to spend here and if Democratic groups start to smell blood and get involved.
• IL-Gov: Three new spots from Republican Bruce Rauner (here, here, and here). The first continues Rauner's recent ad campaign where he accuses Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn of releasing violent criminals. The second goes after Quinn on job losses. The third pushes back on Democratic attacks on Rauner's pension and minimum wage policies.
• KS-Gov: The NEA goes after Republican Gov. Sam Brownback on education, accusing Brownback of gutting it.
• MA-Gov: With several new polls showing a tight race between Democrat Martha Coakley and Republican Charlie Baker, it's no surprise that national Republicans are airing more ads here. Commonwealth Future, the RGA's well-funded front-group, accuses Coakley of doing nothing to help abused and neglected children who were supposed to have been protected by the Department of Children and Family. The group has already spent $4.7 million in this race.
• ME-Gov: Republican Gov. Paul LePage features his wife Ann talking about his record of helping veterans.
• MI-Gov: The DGA continues to hit Republican Gov. Rick Snyder on education cuts.
• TX-Gov: Democrat Wendy Davis hits Republican Greg Abbott on education.
• WI-Gov: Republican Gov. Scott Walker has two new spots (here and here). The first goes after Democrat Mary Burke on plagiarism, echoing a recent RGA ad campaign. The second ad features a survivor of domestic abuse praising Walker's record when it comes to protecting women.
House:
• AR-04: Democrat James Lee Witt
• AZ-01: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick talks about her work to reform the VA.
• FL-02: Freedom Partners spends $143,000 once again tying Democrat Gwen Graham to national Democrats, while praising Republican Rep. Steve Southerland's record.
• FL-26: Freedom Partners continues to portray Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia as a corrupt Obama supporter. The size of the buy is $62,000.
• IL-13: Democrat Ann Callis.
• LA-06: Garret Graves, one of the many Republicans competing in the November jungle primary, introduces his family and talks about how conservative he is.
• MI-01: Democrat Jerry Cannon.
• ND-AL: Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer.
• NE-02: The DCCC hits Republican Rep. Lee Terry over his tone deaf deceleration that he would keep his paycheck during the government shutdown. Democrat Brad Ashford goes positive, portraying himself as a pragmatic problem solver and pledging to stop the Obamacare employer mandate.
• NH-01: The DCCC attacks Republican Frank Guinta over some still-unexplained mystery money he received.
• NY-21: Democrat Aaron Woolf.
• TX-23: The DCCC has two new ads against Republican Will Hurd (here and here). The first hits Hurd on education cuts; the second features a wounded soldier accusing Hurd of wanting to cut veterans' benefits.
• WV-03: YG Network ties Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall to Obama: The size of the buy is $336,000. Freedom Partners takes up the other favored Republican attack line here, hitting Rahall on coal: The size of the buy is $108,000.
• House: Roll Call has a number of new House ad reservations from GOP-friendly groups. There aren't any real surprises. On the Democratic side, we have various expenditures from the DCCC and House Majority PAC.