I was just watching Fox News, as part of my weekly reconnaissance chores, and they were touting the latest Gallup poll results, as "good news" for Republican Candidates.
According to the Fox consultant, Republicans are more motivated to vote in the midterms, because Republican voters 'sense a real chance for victory -- and they want to be a part of it.'
Of course he then went on to warn Republican voters not to sit on their laurels couches, 'since Romney had similar favorable Poll results beforehand -- and look what happened to him.'
So being the "enthusiastic" Democratic voter that I am, I decided to check out the source for this latest Fox Breaking-News, which appears to be this:
Voter Engagement Lower Than in 2010 and 2006 Midterms
Turnout indicators more similar to 1998, 2002 than to 2006, 2010
by Jeffrey M. Jones -- October 8, 2014
PRINCETON, NJ -- Turnout in the midterm elections this fall could be lower than in the past two midterm elections, based on current voter engagement. On each of three indicators of voter engagement in midterm elections -- how much thought Americans have given to them, their expressed motivation to vote, and their enthusiasm about voting compared with past elections -- 2014 looks more like lower-turnout years 1998 and 2002 than higher-turnout years 2006 and 2010.
[...]
In 1998 and 2002, in contrast, Americans were generally pleased with the way things were going in the country and with the job performance of the president and Congress -- even with divided party control -- and were thus less motivated to use their vote to try to change the government. Accordingly, there was little change in the party composition of Congress after those elections.
This year presents a different set of circumstances. Americans are dissatisfied with the state of the nation and generally unhappy with the job the president is doing and even more so with the job Congress is doing. Earlier Gallup research suggested that low approval of Congress is associated with higher voter turnout in midterms. However, with a Democratic president and divided party control of Congress, there is no clear remedy to inspire voters to change things this year, and that may be keeping Americans' motivation to vote and enthusiasm about voting in check.
[...]
[links in the source document]
So, if I'm reading this correctly, dissatisfaction with the "state of the nation" leads to increased mid-term turnout.
BUT, dissatisfaction with the "Congress" leads to even MORE increased mid-term turnout. (The 'throw the bums out' theory.)
If that second effect is indeed in-play, Republicans ought not be popping the Champagne corks too early -- because as of ...
September 8, 2014
Congress Approval Sits at 14% Two Months Before Elections
Lowest approval in fall before an election since 1974
Mitt Romney may have to make more room on his "disappointment couch," eh?
And in other lower-the-turnout "happy" Republican News ...
Voter ID laws lower turnout of blacks, new voters: watchdog
by Stephen Dinan, The Washington Times -- October 8, 2014
Requiring voters to show a photo ID at the polls does lower turnout, Congress’ nonpartisan watchdog concluded in a major report released Wednesday that said young, black and newly registered voters were most likely to stay home.
By contrast, Government Accountability Office analysts said they were not able to figure out how much voter fraud -- the problem voter ID laws are meant to combat -- is actually going on.
The study, coming less than a month before voters go to the polls, is boosting opponents of voter ID mandates who say it’s time to scrap laws that curtail the pool of voters.
[...]
Happy Days are here again for the GOP -- Unless we get off
our 'dissolution clouds'
-- And VOTE! (... Vote the GOP-bums out.)