Here's an interesting take on why Joni Ernst (R> IA) might just lose to Rep. Bruce Braley (D. IA):
http://www.bloomberg.com/...
While their names will appear in two distinct sections of the Iowa ballot, the political fortunes of Governor Terry Branstad and GOP Senate nominee Joni Ernst will be deeply intertwined.
The good news for Ernst is that Branstad is ahead in his re-election bid. The bad news for Ernst is that he's winning so big. A Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll shows the incumbent Republican governor leading his rival by 15 percentage points, a margin comfortable enough that it could depress turnout among Republicans and independents mostly interested in the governor's race. That isn't likely to be many, but in one of the closest Senate races this election cycle, every vote could matter.
In another interesting wrinkle for the Senate race, roughly one fifth of likely voters backing Braley have indicated that they are planning to split their ticket and also vote for Branstad. That's about four times as many Ernst supporters who plan to back Hatch. - Bloomberg, 10/14/14
While I don't doubt this could hurt Ernst's chances, I think it's her positions that will ultimately doom her. Like this:
http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/...
At a debate in Davenport on Saturday, Ms. Ernst came under fire from her Democratic opponent, Representative Bruce Braley, for her plan to eliminate the nation’s environmental guardian. “You’re saying you don’t want anyone making sure the air we breathe is clean and the water we drink is pure,” he said.
Ms. Ernst first made this proposal during the state’s Republican primary, when she pandered for Tea Party support by also promising to eliminate the Internal Revenue Service and the Department of Education. But now she is stuck with it, and made a feeble attempt to justify the plan at the debate by saying the E.P.A. has overreached.
“I do believe our states know best how to protect their natural resources,” Ms. Ernst said. “I believe this can be done at the state level, rather than at a national level with the federal E.P.A.”
Turning any number of big things over to the states, of course, has become a familiar Republican substitute for actually thinking about policy. For one thing, it’s cost-free: none of these agencies or big programs are really going to be eliminated, so you can sound like you’re swinging a big wrecking ball without ever having to be responsible for the damage. But if environmental enforcement really were turned over to the states, it would be a huge gift for the business interests (like the Kochs) who are backing Ms. Ernst and other likeminded candidates, allowing them to determine air and water policy. - New York Times, 10/13/14
Or her hypocrisy on this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
Iowa Republican Senate candidate Joni Ernst said Saturday that she wouldn't try to do away with a policy that helps young undocumented immigrants, even though she's previously criticized her Democratic opponent for opposing efforts to end the program.
During a debate with Democratic candidate Rep. Bruce Braley on Saturday, Ernst was asked whether she would vote to end Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, a policy that allows undocumented young people who came to the U.S. as children to stay for two years or more.
"No, I would not," replied Ernst, who is currently an Iowa state senator.
Braley then touted the successes of the policy, which so far helped more than half a million young people nationwide. - Huffington Post, 10/13/14
And of course this:
http://www.salon.com/...
Ernst wants the race to be about character because she doesn’t actually have a whole lot of offer when it comes to policy. That became perfectly clear on Friday, when the two candidates met for their second debate and Ernst refused to answer a very important question about healthcare reform.
Here’s the video of the debate.
http://www.kwqc.com/...
At around the 7:45 mark, the debate moderator reads a question from an Iowa resident who is a “new enrollee under Obamacare.” The question was straightforward: given that this guy is newly insured under the ACA, and Ernst wants to fully repeal the law, “have you given any thought to how individuals in my situation won’t lose coverage should the repeal occur?”
Basically, this guy was looking for assurance that Ernst, if she’s elected, won’t screw him over. Here’s Joni Ernst’s response, in full:
Every Iowan and every American has the right to affordable, quality healthcare. But Obamacare is not the answer to that. And Congressman Braley gave the closing argument to Obamacare. He said he read every single page of this bill. But what we have seen, even here in Iowa, is that it is an additional tax to Iowans and all Americans of $1.2 trillion. It is a jobs killer here in this state, and it’s taking our personal healthcare decisions out of our hands, and placing them in nameless, faceless bureaucrats in Washington, DC. Just this past week the insurance commissioner announced that plans through the exchange will go up an estimated 19 percent. I don’t see how this is affordable for anyone. When the president and Congressman Braley promised us that we would see an average reduction of $2,600 per family. Families are paying more and they’ve lost their coverage.
That’s it. Braley, in his response, defended the Affordable Care Act, pointing out that Iowa’s Republican governor, Terry Branstad, hammered out a deal with the Department of Health and Human Services to expand Medicaid and that over 100,000 Iowans had benefitted from access to coverage. Ernst was given a few seconds to respond, and she used them to reiterate her belief that Obamacare is the worst thing ever. She didn’t even offer the perfunctory GOP pabulum about “patient-centered care” and “market-oriented alternatives.” She just blew off the question and, more significantly, the very real concerns of a newly insured Iowa resident. - Salon, 10/13/14
Braley has his soon to be predecessor hitting the campaign trail for him:
http://wqad.com/...
U.S. Senator Tom Harkin was in the Quad Cities on Tuesday, October 14, 2014 campaigning for U.S. Senate Candidate Bruce Braley.
Harkin showed up at the Good Samaritan Society in Davenport around 10 a.m. Harkin talked to seniors about why he thinks Braley should be the next U.S. Senator in Iowa. Harkin is retiring after his term ends, and Braley is running for his place on the democratic ticket.
“We’re just going through a rough time right now, but we’ve had rough times in the past. We’ll get through it,” Harkin said of the economy Tuesday. “I’m very optimistic. We have a bright future in this country. We’re gonna get through these tough times. Things are going to get better.” - WQAD, 10/14/14
And another big name is coming out on the campaign trail for Braley:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/...
Sen. Elizabeth Warren will campaign on Sunday in Des Moines and Iowa City for Democrat Bruce Braley, who is locked in one of the nation's closest Senate races, the Braley campaign confirmed Monday.
She will appear at "Iowa Votes" rallies on Sunday at noon at the University of Iowa Memorial Union in Iowa City, and at 3:30 p.m. at the Hotel Fort Des Moines in Des Moines. The rallies are intended to encourage Iowans to cast their votes early in person or by mail because it is the easiest way to cast a ballot, the Braley campaign said.
The Massachusetts senator, a popular Democratic campaign surrogate with a message that focuses on economic inequality, said she would campaign in Iowa for Braley and make stops in Colorado and Minnesota for Senate candidates. - Des Moines Register, 10/13/14
Lets beat this extremist. Click here to donate and get involved with Braley's campaign:
http://www.brucebraley.com/