Tom McDonnell writes in
Mother Jones that
This New Study Explains Why Fracking Won't Solve Climate Change Even if we solve the methane problem, shale gas alone won't save us.
A new study published today in Nature "finds that natural gas is essentially useless as a climate solution unless it is buttressed by new policies that discourage carbon pollution and promote investment in renewable energy." This includes the natural gas coming from fracking.
"In the absence of policies that help natural gas play a positive role, you won't make things much better," said Jae Edmonds, Chief Scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute and one of the study's lead authors. "It's kind of a wash."
The specific outcomes vary, but all five models tell the same story: By 2050, global temperatures rise beyond the internationally agreed-upon limit of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) in both the "conventional" and "abundant" scenarios. In other words, simply using more natural gas, even as it displaces far dirtier coal, has an almost negligible effect on climate change.
There are two reasons for that: First, cheap gas also takes market share away from clean energy. Even though gas's carbon footprint is about half that of coal, it's obviously not as low as sources like wind, solar, or nuclear, and is therefore never an adequate permanent substitute for them. Second, the combination of cheap gas and no new energy efficiency policies means total energy consumption goes up. Together, these two effects offset any carbon savings that result from a move away from coal. ...
One interesting finding is that inexpensive natural gas not only displaces dirty coal burning but also clean renewable energy, ie. low carbon alternatives. In one scenario low cost natural gas displaced "18 percent of coal and 17 percent of low-carbon sources," by 2050.
Chock up another study indicating that solar, wind and other forms of renewable energy are the way to go in order to ameliorate global warming. We know we are not converting to clean renewable fast enough and we will need much more aggressive policy intervention by governments across the globe.