You can read my prior ebola blogs for all the caveats, but Im still reading survivalistboards as it has some of the best info. They have further split their general ebola forum into politics, us cases, prepping, statistics, links and general
Here is a summary of the forums:
1) US cases is for breaking info on US cases. I find the info comes out fastest there.
2) Prepping is slow but goes over all the materials you need to buy and protocols and procedures for using equipment and disinfection.
3) General is mostly about routes of transmission and discussion of infectiousness etc
4) Statistics is where the latest graphs and other data are shown
5) Politics is for conspiracy theorists, immigration policies, bashing Obama etc
The latest numbers are showing that cases are falling off compared to the expected curve.
The graph on the left is a log graph which allows forecasting to more distant timepoints. It assumes no changes to the spread. The graph on the right plots actual cases vs forecasted cases as well as the delta between the actuals and the forecast.
The scale on the right y-axis is number of cases. I have requested a version that uses percentages because absolute numbers get larger as the total number of cases gets larger which can be deceptive.
The yellow arrow is showing how previously the actuals were generally higher than the forecast and now they have dropped below the projections of the model.
This could be a good thing, but it is difficult to know for sure. One concern is that the official numbers only reflect the availability of beds. Once beds got maxed out the official numbers start reporting lower and lower compared to the projections.
Alternately it could indicate that the number of cases is actually falling off indicating some level of control. Ill update once the original poster changes over to percentages.