The ElectoralMap.net aggregation is now showing a sharp uptick in the likelihood of Republican seat pick-ups in Colorado, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Republican support also moved upwards in Georgia, a seat one once seen as a possible pick-up for the Democrats. The nearly 10% increase in the probability of a Republican victory in Colorado sent the Monte Carlo simulation to a new high of 74% for the overall chances of the Republicans taking the Senate. Kansas continues to be a wildcard tossup, with independent Greg Orman polling dead even with the Republican incumbent.
Is the apparent Republican surge in Colorado a bad bellwether for Democrats?
It is difficult to say. Regarded by some as a "new blue state" Colorado went for Obama twice, has a Democratic state legislature, a Democratic governor, and shares the title with Washington of first state in the union to decriminalize the recreational use of marijuana. And, like many other southwestern states, Colorado has a surging Hispanic population. It would certainly be a sharp reversal of the trend in Colorado if Mark Udall were to lose his senate seat. But that may be a function of this particular race, and not a wider indicator. Udall has been criticized as running a weak, one-dimensional campaign focused on reproductive rights against an opponent who holds moderate positions like making birth control available over-the-counter. Indeed we see Democratic governor John Hickenlooper continuing to poll even or better against his Republican challenger, despite having signed controversial gun legislation into law. Republicans had high hopes of unseating the governor, who gave an indefinite stay of execution to mass shooter Nathan Dunlap while simultaneously signing the gun bills in response to the Aurora theater mass shooting.