Voting is heavy this year in North Carolina. But if you think that's exciting, wait till you see what's below the fold.
This is Part 2 of a 6-part series. Collect the whole set:
1 (10/27),
2 (10/28),
3 (10/29),
4 (10/30),
5 (11/1)
Yesterday's inaugural diary in this series broke the exciting news (preceding DKos's own front-page coverage by most of a day): a deep analytical dive into North Carolina's 2014 early voting data reveals what is (so far) shaping up to be something of a progressive blow-out in the Tar Heel State, with minority voters (primarily African-Americans), women, and Dems in general coming out to vote in much greater strength than they did in the disastrous 2010 mid-term election.
But some readers might have found my analysis a little confusing, based as it was on turnout expressed as percentages of registered voters in those and other groups. Percentage turnout doesn't win elections; the absolute numbers of votes cast does. So today's analysis takes that latter point of view, ignoring percentages of registered voters and comparing and contrasting, instead, the absolute numbers of ballots cast by various groups in 2014 vs. 2010. And the news is...still great! The Tar Heel State is leading the nation in progressives' revolt against the dying teahadist regime.
Follow me below the fold for the details...but not until you've gone out and voted yourself! This is no time to get complacent, folks. Kick 'em while they're down, so they don't get up again.
Today's first graph (at the top of this article) illustrates that, overall, turnout is better this year than in the mid-term election of 2010. It's still not up to presidential election year turnout, but we'll take it.
Two points regarding the X axis in today's graphs bear a little explanation. First, in 2010 North Carolina had a total of 17 days of early voting (what we call "One-Stop" voting hereabouts, for reasons I can't begin to fathom) prior to Election Day. But, thanks to Republicans' voter suppression efforts, in 2014 we have just 10 days of early voting. Thus, graphs comparing 2010 and 2014 time lines can get a little confusing if (as I did yesterday) the X axis timeline is expressed in "Early Voting Day #." So today, and henceforth, the X axes are expressed in "Percent of Early Voting Days Expired," enabling direct comparisons between 2010 and 2014 timelines.
Second, discerning readers will note that these graphs all show some small numbers of votes tallied on the left-most end of the X axes, at "0%" of early voting days expired. That's because the data I report here includes both mail-in ballots and in-person early voting ballots, and even before in-person early voting began (at 0%) some number of mail-in ballots had already been processed and reported.
Now, to get to the good stuff. But first, remember: all of what's said below pertains to results to date...we can still lose this election if you don't get out and vote, so put down the bonbons and get off your can! It ain't over till the volumetrically challenged person sings.
Dems Are Voting In Significantly Larger Numbers Than Republicans This Year:
Dems are casting about 1.5 ballots for every 1 ballot cast by Republicans.
We Have Minority Voters (Mostly African-Americans) To Thank:
...plus the good folk of NC's Moral Mondays movement (the NAACP and its leader, Rev. Dr. William J. Barber, II), who have tirelessly urged those voters to the polls.
Bless you, Rev. Barber.
Carolina's Women-Folk Are Kicking Butt and Taking Names:
Women always vote in greater numbers than do men, but this year the differential is significantly greater than in 2010. Dear Gov. McCrory: the programs you've been savaging for the past two years, like education, healthcare, and the social safety net, are family values (and basic issues of fairness) that Carolina women care
a lot about.
Don't you mess with Tar Heel wimmen, no-how.
But Dang, the Young-uns Aren't Stepping Up To the Plate Yet:
Just
look at that average age of early voters. It was bad in 2010, and it's even worse this year. That's some shameful shit. Yes, I know...you young folks have jobs to show up for, meals to get on the table, kids to bathe and bed down, elders to care for, and craft beer to drink, which we decrepit old seniors no longer have to deal with. But on the other hand, you have a lot more years left to live with the consequences of elections than we do. So please find the time to vote! The lines on Election Day will be loooong and sloooow, so git-er-done NOW.
C'mon, guys.
This is Part 2 of a 6-part series. Collect the whole set:
1 (10/27),
2 (10/28),
3 (10/29),
4 (10/30),
5 (11/1)