See text for discussion of what the LCT Index is, is not, and how to interpret it.
This is Part 3 of a 6-part series. Collect the whole set:
1 (10/27),
2 (10/28),
3 (10/29),
4 (10/30),
5 (11/1)
Yesterday was another day of strong voting action in the Tar Heel State, with all of the trends reported in previous editions of this series still holding up nicely.
Rare indeed is the person who enjoys wading through a dozen graphs (like those I've published in preceding installments of this series) thinking deeply about them all, and arriving at conclusions. With respect to this year's North Carolina general election, most of us really just want to know one thing: are things looking better for progressives in 2014 than the way they turned out in the disastrous 2010 election, or worse, or about the same?
There are a lot of issues to juggle in order to try to come up with a simple answer to that question that won't also be simple-minded. Obviously, the relative numbers of Republican and Democratic ballots being cast is first and foremost among these issues. Second to that is how many Democrats will vote for Republican candidates. But the real fly in the ointment is the question of 'Unaffiliated' voters...those who are registered neither Democratic, Republican, nor Libertarian (the only parties recognized in NC). Some fraction of Unaffiliateds will vote conservative, and others liberal. Those fractions are unknowable in advance. In NC, the outcome of the election largely hangs on that question though, since Unaffiliateds comprise a significant fraction of registered voters (27%, versus 42% for Democrats and 30% for Republicans).
Today's only chart (above) attempts to fulfill your yearning for a simple-but-not-simple-minded answer, taking Unaffiliated voters into account.
I can already hear professional card-carrying political scientists [sic] and other poli-wonks sharpening their pitchforks and setting cauldrons of tar on to boil, but so what? Herewith I introduce DocDawg's Liberal/Conservative Trend Index (LCTI) for the 2014 North Carolina general election. Below the fold I offer both a short-form explanation of how this index is derived (for folks who get headaches looking at even simple mathematical equations) and a long-form version (for fellow wonks). But above the fold I want to come out right here and advise you that there is, as yet, absolutely no historical or scientific justification for the LCTI. It makes sense to me. Maybe it will make sense to you too, or maybe not. Hey: take it or leave it.
How The LCTI Works (Short Form):
The index is based on the assumption that there are two camps of voters:
1. 'Liberal:' Most Democrats, plus some fraction of Unaffiliateds
2. 'Conservative:' Most Republicans, all Libertarians, and the remaining fraction of Unaffiliateds
Note that I don't pussyfoot around here worrying about a third camp of 'centrists.' I've never met a centrist in the flesh, nor a unicorn.
So to calculate the LCT Index I add together the number of ballots cast by registered Democrats plus a certain fraction of Unaffiliateds (I'll describe just what that fraction is in a moment) - these I take as 'liberals.' Then I separately add together the number of ballots cast by registered Republicans plus all Libertarians plus the remaining fraction of Unaffiliateds - these I take as 'conservatives.' I divide the liberal number by the conservative number, then do some math magic to convert that ratio into a form in which positive values are 'more liberal' and negative values are 'more conservative.'
How do I decide what fractions of Unaffiliated ballots to apportion to 'liberals,' and what fraction to 'conservatives?' Simple: I look at the 2010 election data, and choose the fractional fudge factor that yields a value of zero (0) for 2010.
Thus, what the LCTI is telling you (I hope) is that if Libertarians, Republicans, and Democrats all break the same ways they did in 2010, then an LCTI of 0 (zero) means we'll get the same unhappy result we did back then, while a positive value means we should see a more liberal-leaning result, while a negative value means we should see a more conservative result.
As you can see, the LCTI, as of yesterday, is running at +10. Does that mean you'll be 10% happier on the evening of Nov. 4th than you were four years ago? Beats me. Mostly what it's telling us is that Democrats are casting more ballots than Republicans so far this year, and the number of Unaffiliated ballots being cast doesn't obviously negate that seeming Dem advantage. Note that while the LCTI also takes Libertarian ballots into account, I don't think these are of much concern; Libertarians account for only one third of one percent of registered NC voters.
How The LCTI Works (Long Form):
LCTI =[((BD + (BU * F)) / (BR + BL + (BU * (1-F)))) - 1] * 100, where:
B = number of ballots cast by registered Democrats (subscript D), Republicans (subscript R), Libertarians (subscript L) or Unaffiliateds (subscript U)
F = Fudge-factor selected to yield an LCTI of zero for the previous general election's early voting outcome. For 2014, F = 0.2143
This is Part 3 of a 6-part series. Collect the whole set:
1 (10/27), 2 (10/28), 3 (10/29), 4 (10/30), 5 (11/1)