It looks like Democratic Sen. Mark Warner has kept his seat by the skin of his teeth.
We have several contests that have not been called for one party or the other as of Wednesday afternoon. You can check out what seats have been won or lost at our
race tracker here. We'll be using
CNN's election results page. Note that they currently have
CT-Gov and
NE-02 uncalled, but the Republicans have conceded in both races.
• VA-Sen: Let's start with some good news. It looks like Democratic Sen. Mark Warner has pulled off a shockingly narrow win, but a win nonetheless. Warner currently holds a 17,000 vote lead and there don't appear to be enough votes out there for Republican Ed Gillespie for him to reverse this. Gillespie has not yet conceded but Warner's team sounds confident. Barring a major tabulation error, it's hard to see this lead being reversed.
Head below the fold for a look at where other uncalled contests stand.
• AK-Sen: There are still votes to be counted, but Republican Dan Sullivan's 8,149 vote lead over Democratic Sen. Mark Begich looks tough to reverse. In 2008 Begich was down 3,300 votes on Election Night but ended up winning by 3,953 in the end. Even if Begich has built up a stronger lead in the votes that haven't been counted, the math this time around looks incredibly daunting.
• AK-Gov: Independent Bill Walker currently holds a 3,165 vote lead over Republican Gov. Sean Parnell. It's more plausible that Parnell can reverse this deficit than Begich can, but he doesn't have much room for error. We'll have a better idea where this stands soon enough.
• VT-Gov: Very few people were expecting a tight race, but that's just what we got. Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin won a narrow 46-45 plurality over his unheralded opponent Scott Milne, but the race isn't quite over. Under Vermont law the state legislature chooses the governor if no one gets a majority. The Democrats run the show in Montpellier and there's no real question they'll pick Shumlin, as they did in 2010 when he pulled off another plurality. This law is really just a formality in any case: The last time the legislature chose the candidate who didn't win the most votes was 1853.
• AZ-02: This one looks pretty bleak for Democratic Rep. Ron Barber. As on Wednesday afternoon he only trails Republican Martha McSally by 36 votes, but most of heavily conservative Cochise County is out. The entire county is in the district and so far it's only recorded 12,229 votes; in 2010 it cast about 40,000 votes. The county is breaking for McSally 68-32 and all of Barber-friendly Pima County is in. It's hard to see McSally not winning this when all is said and done.
• CA-07: Republican Doug Ose currently holds a 51-49 lead over Democratic incumbent Ami Bera, which translates to 3,011 votes. There are about 70,000 votes left, and Bera would need to win them by about 52.5-47.5 to pull ahead. This may be doable: Bera won the late-counted ballots with 54.7 percent in 2012, albeit in a much better climate. California Democrats almost always do disproportionately better among these late ballots so Bera should have room to grow, but this could go either way.
• CA-09: This was another shockingly tight race, but it should stay in the blue column. Rep. Jerry McNerney holds a 52-48 lead over Republican Tony Amador, but as long as the votes are as Democratic-leaning as expected, he'll be fine.
• CA-16: It's deja vu all over again for Democratic Rep. Jim Costa. He currently trails his Some Dude Republican foe Johnny Tacherra by 736 votes in another race that was seen as safe for Team Blue. In 2010 Costa held a 1,823 deficit on Election Night but the remaining ballots allowed him to win by 3,050 when all was said and done. It's likely a similar thing will happen this time around.
• CA-17: Rep. Mike Honda currently holds a 52-48 lead over fellow Democrat Ro Khanna, which is about 3,550 votes. The same party nature of this contest makes things a bit more unpredictable but Honda's lead should hold. His base is made up of more Democratic-leaning voters while Khanna has been appealing more to moderates and conservatives, though he does have his share of Democratic backers. With more Democratic mail-in votes likely still out Honda should gain, and since he already has the lead that puts him in a good position.
• CA-26: Rep. Julia Brownley currently holds a 530 lead over Republican Jeff Gorrell, and as long as mail-in votes favor Democrats like they have in the past, she'll win in the end.
• CA-31: Democrat Pete Aguilar holds a 51-49 lead over Republican Paul Chabot. This was closer than expected but this is another race where a Democratic Election Night lead means a Democratic victory as long as mail-in ballots look anywhere near as blue as they have in the past. Aguilar has declared victory and while Chabot hasn't conceded, the writing is on the wall.
• CA-52: Via Taniel: Democratic Rep. Scott Peters trails by about 700 votes against Carl DeMaio with all precincts reporting, but he has been down this road before. In 2012, he led then-Rep. Brian Bilbray by less than 700 votes the morning after the election. But once all provisional ballots were counted, his lead had grown ten-fold to 7,000 votes (a margin of 2.4 percentage points). About 10,000 ballots are reportedly left, so Peters would have to win them by about 7 percentage points to take a lead.
• MD-06: Here's another shockingly tight race that should stay blue. With all precincts tallied, Democratic Rep. John Delaney holds a 50-48 lead over Republican Daniel Bongino with all precincts counted. There are 5,847 absentee votes out and the state will start counting them Thursday. For Bongino to overcome Delaney's 2,166 vote lead he'd need to win the absentees by about 68.5 to 31.5, which doesn't seem likely.
• NY-25: In yet again unexpectedly tight race, Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter holds a 582 vote lead over Mark Assini. There are a few thousand absentees to be counted and the process could take a while. These ballots may not help Slaughter: In 2010 neighboring Democrat Dan Maffei held a small lead of Election Night but lost when all was said and done.
• WA-04: In the GOP vs. GOP general, Dan Newhouse currently holds a 52-48 lead over Clint Didier. There are plenty of ballots left so this could take awhile, but it looks like Newhouse is in a good spot.
We'll be keeping a close eye on all these contests at Daily Kos Elections, so check back there as things unfold.