While 2015 will be all about the Presidential primaries in most of the country, it will be an election year in New Jersey, with the entirety of the 80-member Assembly up for grabs. There will also be key county and municipal races across the state to keep true Jersey political junkies occupied while we wait for the first votes to be cast in the Presidential primaries.
For the uninitiated, New Jersey is divided into 40 legislative districts, each of which elect 1 Senator and 2 Assemblymembers. The Senators are up in years ending in 1, 3 and 7, and are thus not up next year. All 80 seats in the Assembly are up, as they are every odd year. In the voting booth, you vote for two candidates, and the top two finishers win (there are no "A" or "B" seats). Currently, there are only two districts in which the Assemblymembers are of different parties, the 1st and the 2nd. With that, I take a look at the state of play and races likely to be competitive below the fold. Note that "LD" means Legislative District.
Competitive General Elections
These are races I would describe as Tossups or leaning towards one party, as well as any race where a split result is possible. I examine these in detail below the Safe Races.
*LD-01: A light-blue, conservative district around Cape May, currently represented by a Democrat and a Republican, with an extremely popular Democratic Senator.
*LD-02: A dark blue district with major turnout issues based in Atlantic County. Currently represented by a Democrat and a Republican with a very popular Democratic Senator, who is likely to retire in 2017.
*LD-08: An Obama district held down by two Republican Assemblymembers and a Republican Senator in blue Burlington County. It's very possible that the Democrats will not end up providing a strong challenge here.
*LD-11: A Monmouth County district held down by two Republican Assemblymembers and a Republican Senator. After a strong countywide performance in 2014, the Monmouth County Democrats will almost certainly put up a strong challenge here.
*LD-14: A light blue, perennially competitive district based in Mercer and Middlesex Counties, held down by two Democratic Assemblymembers and a Democratic Senator. We'll see if this is the year Republicans stop trying in this one.
*LD-16: An historically red Obama district, made very tempting by the presence of dark blue Princeton and South Brunswick. Represented by two Republican Assemblymembers and a Republican Senator. Mainly based in Somerset County (though lacking the dark blue Franklin Township and the dark red northern suburbs), the Somerset County Democrats will likely need to choose between contesting these seats or trying once again to pick up seats on the Freeholder Board (NJ's version of a county commission).
*LD-38: Another light blue, perennially competitive district based in Bergen County and held down by two Democratic Assemblymembers and a Democratic Senator. Like LD-14, this may be the year that Republican stop trying here.
Safe Democratic Seats
*LD-03
*LD-04
*LD-05
*LD-06
*LD-07
*LD-15 - potential primary
*LD-17
*LD-18 - Likely Democrat
*LD-19
*LD-20 - potential primary
*LD-22
*LD-27
*LD-28
*LD-29 - potential primary
*LD-31 - potential primary
*LD-32
*LD-33
*LD-34
*LD-35
*LD-36
*LD-37
As you can see, 21 out of 40 districts fall into the "Safe" category for Democrats. Barring a massive surprise, Democrats should easily maintain their majority in the Assembly.
Safe Republican Seats
*LD-09
*LD-10
*LD-12
*LD-13
*LD-21
*LD-23
*LD-24
*LD-25
*LD-26
*LD-30
*LD-39
*LD-40 - potential primary
Competitive Race Analysis
LD-01
This district is currently represented by Democrat Bob Andrzejczak and moderate Republican Sam Fiocchi.
Historically Republican like much of New Jersey, conservative Democrat Jeff Van Drew won the Senate seat here in 2007, bringing along runningmates Nelson Albano and Matt Milam into the Assembly. While Van Drew is as popular as ever, winning reelection by a 20 point margin in 2013 despite Hurricane Christie sweeping through the land, Albano and Milam were not as lucky.
Milam left the ticket in early 2013, citing the need to focus on his business (I'm still not sure if there is a "real reason" behind this or not). He was replaced by Bob Andrzejczak, a young Purple Heart recipient who lost his leg in Iraq. Albano, meanwhile, was caught on tape pulling a "do-you-know-who-I-am" routine when he was stopped on the highway for speeding. This was particularly damning for a man whose political career started in response to his son's death at the hands of a drunk driver, and he lost his seat to Sam Fiocchi.
Andrzejczak, however, proved to be a hit with the electorate, coming in first in the Assembly race by a large margin. It remains to be seen, however, if he can stand on his own two feet without Van Drew at the top of the ticket. Despite a compelling personal story, Andrzejczak is thought of as lightweight due to his age and poor speaking skills, and is going to be a prime Republican target in 2015.
As to who Andrzejczak and Fiocchi will run with, it's anyone's guess at this point. Van Drew loves to recruit candidates from outside of the political arena, so we probably haven't even heard of Andrzejczak's runningmate yet. As for Fiocchi, the Cumberland County standard-bearer will have to run with someone from Cape May County for balance, and there are a ton of Republicans to choose from.
While the district is Democratic-leaning, both incumbents will likely be favored in the election. Fiocchi's incumbency and social liberalism make him a tough target for Democrats, while a clean Republican sweep would be a major turn against the district's trend. Look for both incumbents to survive here, with Democrats going for a clean sweep in 2017.
NOTE: Much of the conventional wisdom on this race has been centered around Sen. Van Drew challenging Frank LoBindo in NJ-02 in 2016, and leaving his Senate seat vacant. Since I think that's ridiculous, I didn't address that possibility in my analysis.
LD-02
This district is currently represented by Democrat Vince Mazzeo and Republican Chris Brown (not to be confused with the Chris Brown of LD-08 below).
Like LD-01, this historically Republican district's Senate seat was captured by former Atlantic City Mayor Jim Whelan in 2007. Despite crushing landslides for Obama here in 2008 and 2012, the district suffers from massive turnout issues, and failed to elect a Democratic Assemblyman until Mazzeo's victory in 2013.
This race centers around Whelan's likely retirement in 2017, and is viewed as the next year's marquee matchup because both parties would like to knock off the strongest possible contender for that seat in the form of the district's Assemblymen. Brown, particularly, would be a strong candidate for that seat, and my guess is that this is where Democrats spend heavily next year to nix that possibility.
That said, the lack of Whelan at the top of the ticket makes this a tough fight for Mazzeo, who doesn't have the profile needed to pull votes out of Atlantic City, where a Democrat needs huge turnout to win this district. The Atlantic County Democrats, considering the natural voting behavior of the county, are probably the weakest party in the state, and I can't see them saving Mazzeo in 2015. Look for Republicans to pick up a seat here, and hope Whelan decides to give it one last run in 2017.
LD-08
This is district is currently represented by Republicans Chris Brown (not to be confused with the above) and Maria Rodriguez-Gregg.
There are three possibilities for Democratic offense and 2015, and I think this is actually the least likely of three to make the cut. Still, Democrats can't be counted out in a district Obama won comfortably, even if the bench is painfully limited. If a play is made here, look for Democratic candidates to come from Burlington County, which makes up the vast majority of the district's population. I doubt Joanne Schwartz would opt to run for this seat instead of another term on the Freeholder Board, which would leave the best Democratic options as local elected officials from Pemberton and Westampton, the only two sizeable Democratic towns in the district.
You may remember this as the district where Olympian Carl Lewis briefly ran before being booted from the ballot; I'm not sure if he even still lives here, but if he does, I suppose he's an outside possibility.
LD-11
This district is currently represented by Republicans Mary Pat Angelini and Caroline Casagrande.
The Monmouth County Democrats have been building towards taking this district, and I'd be shocked if they didn't give it a strong go next year. Despite the Republican wave, the Democratic Freeholder candidates matched President Obama's 47% in Monmouth County on Tuesday, which means they almost certainly won this Obama district handedly. If the Democrats are going to play offense next year, my guess is this is where is happens.
There would, however, be a dark side to taking this district. Jennifer Beck, the State Senator here, is considered a potential candidate for Governor in 2017, and she would be an ideal candidate for Republicans. The young, attractive Beck is pro-choice and supports same-sex marriage, and I think she could win if nominated. If Democrats take both Assembly seats in her district (or even just manage to do well), she may opt to move up in 2017 rather than face a strong challenge for her Senate seat.
LD-14
This district is currently represented by Democrats Wayne DeAngelo and Dan Benson.
This historically Republican district now seems to be lost for the party after three consecutive losses with above average candidates. The Republican bench here is not what it used to be, and the recent history should be enough to keep prominent local-level Republicans away. While I included it here due to the fact that it's been a battleground for nearly a decade, I think 2015 may be the year Republicans finally give up.
LD-16
This district is currently represented by Republicans Jack Ciattarelli and Donna Simon.
This is the last of three Obama districts where Republicans hold both Assembly seats. Like LD-08, I'd be surprised if Democrats make a play here, though the presence of dark blue Princeton and South Brunswick in the district must be tempting. While the Somerset County Democrats would badly like to win these seats, the base is outside of Somerset County, which makes a local play difficult as well.
LD-38
This district is currently represented by Democrats Tim Eustace and Joe Lagana.
Like LD-14, this is a perennial battleground district that has shifted pretty firmly into our column the past dew cycles. The question is whether or not Eustace and Lagana can stand alone without Senator Bob Gordon at the top of the ticket.
Eustace and Lagana may benefit from Tuesday's massive loss for the Bergen County GOP. Republicans lost control of the Freeholder Board, and the incumbent Republican County Executive got absolutely thumped despite the national trend and local expectations of a nail-biter. The pressure will now be on the Bergen GOP to regain a majority on the Freeholder Board to check the new County Executive. Given the fact that legislative majorities are firmly in Democratic hands, Republicans may choose to focus solely on the Freeholder race and forget about the Assembly seats.
Overall Assembly Outlook
I am predicting an overall result of R+1. I think Republicans win back Mazzeo's Assembly seat in LD-02 on the back of horrid turnout, and neither party ends up flipping anything else.
County Races
Atlantic County Executive: With the area collapsing economically, it's up in the air whether or not Dennis Levinson (R) runs for a fifth term next year. Either way, Democrats need to start breaking through in this dark blue county where they have absolutely no local traction. A strong challenge here should also help Mazzeo in LD-02.
Bergen County Freeholders: Bergen County was the one bright spot for New Jersey Democrats in 2014. Despite the national and statewide trend, County Executive Kathe Donovan (R) was defeated by nearly 10 points in this swing county, and both incumbent Democratic Freeholders were reelected comfortably. While GOP Chair Bob Yudin is somewhat relieved that his intra-party rival is gone, there are calls for his head after such an embarrassing loss, which should further weaken the organization heading into 2015. Democrats currently control the Freeholder Board 5-2, and one of the two Democratic incumbents (Steve Tanelli and Tracy Silna Zur) will have to survive to keep control. At this point, both seem like heavy favorites.
Burlington County Freeholders: Despite the county's dark blue hue in Presidential elections, Republicans maintain a 3-2 advantage on the Freeholder Board. Democratic incumbents Aimee Belgard and Joanne Schwartz are up next year, and they have a tough task ahead of them to prevent one-party government. Both were swept in on Obama's coattails in 2012 (Belgard had lost a race prior), and of course Belgard is coming off of a huge loss to Tom MacArthur in NJ-03. The BurlCo GOP is a strong organization with deep labor ties, and the Democratic organization is something of a joke. Belgard and Schwartz are in for a tough climb.
Hudson County Executive, Democratic Primary: Incumbent Tom DeGise may drown this one in the bathtub before it begins, but there is still a possibility that he'll be challenged in the June primary by Freeholder Bill O'Dea. As the Hudson County Democratic Organization continues to evolve in a post-Menendez world, shakeups have been common, and alliances shift constantly. DeGise is hoping to completely consolidate support among the organization, particularly mayors, to avoid a challenge.
Monmouth County Freeholders: Monmouth County Democratic Chairman Vin Gopal has been aggressive and successful in his push to turn Monmouth County blue, as shown by his candidate's narrow loss in the 2014 Freeholder election. Despite the national trend, his candidates totaled just under 47% of the vote, equivalent to Obama's performance in 2012. While I think they choose to go after LD-11 instead, the Monmouth Democrats could very well build on this performance and take a shot at incumbent John Curley (R) next year as well. A win would position them for a control election in 2016 on the 5-0 Republican board.
Passaic County Freeholders: Though President Obama received over 60% of the vote here in 2012, the Passaic County Democrats rely heavily on urban turnout, which dropped tremendously in 2014. This allowed the Passaic GOP to retain the County Clerk's position and perform respectably against two incumbent Freeholders on the 7-0 Democratic board.
Somerset County Freeholders: As one Republican operative put it, "Peg is relentless". That's Peg Schaffer, Chair of the Somerset County Democrats. Republicans control the Freeholder Board 5-0, but the Democrats keep chipping away in this county that President Obama won narrowly twice. While 2015 won't be a control election, a win would set the Democrats up to take control of the board in the favorable climate of 2016.