This is the final 2014 prediction diary, and contains all congressional districts, as well as all statewide offices. Final rankings are listed below the write ups, with the initial ratings being shown in parenthesis Perhaps it is a bit lighter than the state legislature diary from Saturday, but easier to read. Enjoy!
My rankings are based on the following percentages of Likelihood of winning.
Tilt D/R: 50.1%-60%
Lean D/R: 60.1-75%
Likely D/R: 75.1-99%
Safe D/R: <99%
MN-Sen.
In 2008, former Saturday Night Live writer/actor Al Franken defeated incumbent senator Norm Coleman by 312 votes. The court cases and recounts prevented Senator Franken from being seated all the way until summer 2009. Franken is running for reelection after a quiet 5 ½ years in the senate. A total of 7 candidates (4 serious) got in against Franken initially, but after caucus left financier Mike McFadden as the endorsed candidate on the 10th and final ballot, there were only 2: McFadden and St. Rep Jim Abeler. The primary was ultimately just a formality, as McFadden worked to consolidate support once he had the party’s backing, and McFadden ended up winning 72-18. The campaign for the general election has essentially revolved around McFadden running attack ads about Franken’s 97% Democratic voting record, and Franken touting the work he has done. Thanks to the super DFL party infrastructure and finances, the party was able to do the attacking of McFadden and his business dealings and highlighting the less popular of his positions. McFadden was initially hailed as a good recruit by Republicans, but he has been a dud of a candidate. I tossed and turned about the final ranking of this, but with a string of double digit polls down the stretch, I move it to Safe D
Safe D (Likely D)
MN-1
Tim Walz has settled into congress after unseating long-term GOP Rep Gil Gutknecht in 2006. Walz sits in a marginal district, but has endeared himself to his constituents and beat former State Representative Al Quist 58-42 last cycle. This race has turned out to been an unmitigated disaster for Republicans. It started with two nobodies, Jim Hagedorn and Aaron Miller, got in against State Representative Mike Benson (R-Rochester). Entering the convention in May, Benson was the establishment candidate that had raised 80k (which is a small sum, but dwarfed what Miller and Hagedorn had rasied); Miller was a quixotic insurgent campaign running well to the left of the Republican party in general, and WAY to the left of Benson and Hagedorn; And Hagedorn was a hard-right former blogger that went by “Mr. Conservative” and was prone to inflamitory and at times racist posts. The morning of the convention, I figured Benson would win first ballot, or shortly thereafter. But after 4 ballots Benson dropped out, then at the last ballot Hagedorn withdrew as Miller somehow ended up with the nomination. Hagedorn and Benson withdrew at the convention and endorsed Miller. But right after the convention, Miller just fell off the face of the planet: He stopped raising money, he stopped making appearances, and even campaign. This infuriated Hagedorn, so Hagedorn reentered the race a little while later. That brought us to the primary on 8/12, where Hagedorn won the center vs. right primary against Miller in absentia. So that leaves Republicans running a candidate that wrote his own attack ads on his own website, had only $9,000 in the bank as of the end of July, no campaign staff, and no campaign structure of any type really. Since then, his finances have not gotten much better, raising only $200k against Walz $2.5MM. It should also be noted that Hagedorn was last seen running for office in 2010 against Walz, finishing 4th in the race to take on Walz that cycle. His 2010 campaign folded in on itself in the primary season as hints of what his previous writings included that cycle. Walz had books on attack ads to use against Hagedorn using his own words, but with his campaign collapsing on itself so early on, Walz was able to keep his hands clean, stay positive, and cruise to reelection. This race was Likely D in April when Benson was in. I have moved it firmly into Safe D, with Walz potentially over performing his 2008 win of 63-33.
Safe D (Likely D)
MN-2
John Kline is termed out of his chairmanship of the Education Committee in 2017, but he is running for reelection in 2014. I suspect he hangs it up in 2016 though. Former State Rep Mike Obermueller is taking a second shot at the seat after holding Kline to a surprisingly low 8% margin. Obermueller is not likely to beat Kline, but his race is designed to solidify his spot as the DFL candidate to take a serious crack at the seat when it comes open. But for now, Kline is very entrenched. Obermueller has not gotten the outside interest and support he had a cycle ago, as he was unlikely to beat Kline, though I do not expect this to be much wider than the 8 point margin got in 2012, as the area is moving decisively to the left, and the upballot DFLers are going to be doing better in the suburbs than Obama did in 2012. Expect Obermueller to be the frontrunner when Kline retires in this (2x) Obama-voting seat in 2016.
Likely R (Likely R)
MN-3
Erik Paulsen once served as Minnesota State House Minority Leader before moving into congress following Jim Ramstad’s (R) retirement in 2006. Paulsen has held this affluent marginal district (Obama won in by 3000 votes in 2012). Paulsen has dominated his last two elections, winning by 18+ in each 2010 and 2012. Paulsen will be fine in this seat until he tries to take a shot at higher office down the road, which is a foregone conclusion. Until that point, I don’t see him having a serious race. In 2014, Paulsen has drawn DFL biochemist Sharon Sund, who currently serves as the Hennepin County DFL Chairwoman. She has a decent resume, and obvious party connections, but ultimately she was just a warm body, as Democrats had no one of note willing to take on Paulsen. I expect a 20%+ blowout here for Paulsen.
Safe R (Safe R)
MN-4
Betty McCollum has been in congress since 2000, and is perhaps the most anonymous 14-year incumbent in the Midwest. She will have no trouble holding down this St. Paul based seat for an 8th term in November. McCollum faces Republican lawyer Sharna Wahlgren, who has not formed a campaign committee… At least they didn’t leave her unopposed entirely.
Safe D (Safe D)
MN-5
Keith Ellison, most famous for being the first Muslim-American member of congress, two years prior to Indiana’s Andre Carson, is running for reelection in the bluest district in the state, the Minneapolis-based D+22 MN-5. Ellison is seen as a polarizing figure, but is in no danger of losing. Like McCollum next door, Ellison did not have a challenger until the filing deadline. Not that Doug Daggett (R) is a stellar candidate, but he has atleast filed with the FEC, raising 39k in this dark blue district. Ellison meanwhile has funneled his $2MM to the state and federal parties.
Safe D (Safe D)
MN-6
Michele Bachmann has chosen to hang it up after grossly underperforming in the most Republican district in the state instead of go for a 4th term. Before Bachmann withdrew, her 2012 opponent, businessman Jim Graves was gearing up for a rematch, but after she withdrew, he followed suit. On the Republican side, 2010 gubernatorial candidate former State Rep Tom Emmer has entered the race, ande fought back some not-so-token challengers to romp with 73% in the primary. On the Democratic side, Emmer meets the mayor of Sartell(!?!?) Joe Perseke. Sartell is one of the most reflexively Republican areas in the district as a suburb of St. Cloud. But, Sartell is small, and far away from the political center of the district. What is going to happen is Emmer will, grossly underperform Generic R in the district, but not be at risk of losing it the way Bachmann has been. Perske has actually been running the kind of campaign a Democrat would need to run in order to win here, playing up his social conservatism and his fiscal moderation. Emmer just has too much money and structure for Perske to overcome.
Safe R (Safe R)
MN-7
Republicans fired some shots across Peterson’s bow, but this just had the opposite effect as intended, it made Peterson more resolved than ever to seek reelection. He has drawn a strong Republican challenger in State Senator Torrey Westrom. Westrom is a well-regarded state legislator who was blinded in a farming accident years ago. He has been referred to as Boy Wonder since he was first elected in 1996 at age 22. Westrom is taking the Obermueller route in this race. It is a free shot for him against an entrenched incumbent, and is really doing it to mark his territory as heir apparent to Peterson. Peterson will win this race, and it won’t be particularly close (8-10 points) in spite of what some Republicans have been hoping. He has faced strong candidates before, and hasn’t had a close race in 20 years. Once Peterson retires, Westrom will likely skate to congress in this district, as he is a very strong candidate, but not until then.
Likely D (Likely D)
MN-8
(Disclosure:I was once a paid campaign staffer for Congressman Rick Nolan)
Long-ago Congressman Rick Nolan took the plunge and unseated accidental congressman Chip Cravaack by 10 points in 2012. Nolan was originally a Watergate Baby way back when Minnesota’s congressional districts looked quite a bit different with 4 outstate districts instead of the current 3. Challenging him on the GOP side is Retail heir Stuart Mills III. Mills is the namesake of his grandfather, who founded a very prominent chain of outdoor outfitters / hardware store / farm supply store Mills’ Fleet Farm. Mills is a lot like Dayton insomuch as he does not possess the business acumen of his grandfather, or even his father, but has a deep interest in being a politician.Mills is a wealthy man with a good last name, and Republicans flocked to his aid. Nolan has been notorious for not getting up to speed in terms of 21st century campaigning, and was likely caught flat footed early in this campaign. However since Nolan has gotten on the campaign trail and started responding to Mills’ ads, he has outraised Mills month to month, and has been improving his position from where he was this summer. There was one very strange poll in this district that ran counter to everything I’ve heard or seen from operatives on both sides, as well as local citizens. I have Mills outperforming Cravaack, as Mills is a superior candidate, but remember Cravaack was an incumbent that managed to lose by 10 points to the same lazy campaigner. I give it to Nolan by ~5.
Lean D (Likely D)
MN-Gov
Mark Dayton has been left for dead several times in his political career, which is quite interesting as he has never lost a general election since his first senate race in 19802 and is 3-0 in statewide elections since then. Dayton is a very difficult man to work with, as he is not above throwing his friends or enemies under the bus at a moment’s notice. His Lt. Governor Yvonne Prettner-Solon quit, and Dayton selected his CoS Tina Smith to be his running mate Smith was not part of Dayton’s inner circle, but was a close advisor of Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak during his race against Dayton for the DFL nod for governor in 2010. Smith is a brilliant political mind, but she is not a politician, and she and Dayton are both from Minneapolis, which in my view was an unforced error on the part of Dayton due to the line of attack long used against Dayton: “Governor of Minneapolis”. But, Dayton has the benefit of a strong state economy, a budget surplus, and being able to contrast Minnesota’s social and economic tracks vs. neighboring Wisconsin’s, which he and the DFL do regularly. August 12th was the GOP primary for governor. GOP endorsed candidate Jeff Johnson, a Hennepin County Commissioner, ran against Some Rich Dude Scott Honour (who dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars into tv ads leading up to the primary), former Speaker Kurt Zellers, Former House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, and perennial candidate Merrill Anderson. Johnson ended up winning the primary 30-24-21-21-4, largely on his strength in his home county. The campaign has been more peaceful than the Senate race, with Johnson going negative, but not nearly to the degree that McFadden has. Still, Johnson has been unable to deliver a message that resonates with voters, and has not made up ground against the incumbent. While the polling shows this race as marginally closer to than the Senate election, that is more a reflection of McFadden than on Dayton, Franken or Johnson. Johnson will get what Generic Republican would tend to get in the state, which is ~42-45%, and he will lose by 7-10% of the vote, sending Dayton back to St. Paul for a second term
Interesting fact, every Lt. Governor Minnesota has had since the 1982 election has been female, and that will continue if Dayton wins, however the streak will be broken if Johnson wins, as he selected form St. Representative Bill Kuisle as his #2..
Likely D (Likely D)
MN-AG
Minnesota is known for being the longest Democratic voting state for President in the country, going back to 1972. But Minnesota is even fonder of its Democratic Attorneys General. Every Minnesota Attorney General since 1970 has been a Democrat, and only a single term has it been a Republican going back to 1955. Incumbent AG Lori Swanson is running for a 3rd term, and is the safest statewide official running for reelection. No Republicans wanted to challenge her, as that is a bad black mark to have on a resume, but at the last minute State Senator Scott Newman got in against her. Also, on the last day, a perennial GOP candidate got in as well: Sharon Anderson. Anderson is a gadfly that has ran for this office for a long long time, but no one takes her seriously. What was troubling for Newman was that he only managed 63% against her in the primary. Also running against Swanson is liberal moonbad former State Representative Andy Dawkins running on the Green Party line. Truth be told, Dawkins has a higher chance of getting to 5% than any of the Independence Party candidates (The threshold for major party status, which the IP is about to lose). I expect Swanson to get around 60% of the vote on election night.
Safe D (Safe D)
MN-Aud
Minnesota Auditor Rebecca Otto is running for her 3rd term in November. In 2010 she was seen as the weakest of the 3 constitutional office holders, and the GOP went after her hard in her first reelection campaign, unsuccessfully. In 2006 she unseated incumbent Patricia Anderson (GOP), but chose not to run for her old seat. Instead, only small town mayor Randy Gilbert chose to carry the GOP banner against her. Gilbert has run on being a moral conservative that has experience as a private sector auditor. Initially, I figured Otto would struggle mightily in northern Minnesota due to her grandstanding against mining. While I figure she will underperform other Democrats there, Gilbert is not nearly strong enough to unseat Otto. I have moved this to Safe D due to Gilbert being ideologically out of sync with the district, largely unknown, and has a penniless campaign.
Safe D (Likely D)
MN-SoS
Incumbent Mark Ritchie is choosing not to seek reelection after 8 years in office. When he announced his retirement, a wave of candidates from both parties expressed interest. Some pulled the trigger on a run, and some didn’t. Oddly, one-time apparent GOP nominee Dennis Nguyen abruptly withdrew after it came to light that he likes strippers. Personally, I find that to be a silly reason to pull the plug on a free shot at a nomination, but he is entitled to withdraw as he saw fit. This left Republicans without a candidate of any type for a couple days until former State Senator John Howe (R-Redwing) jumped in, followed shorly by state Representative and 2010 SoS nominee Dan Severson. The nominee for the Democrats was supposed to be a tightly contested battle between State Representatives Deb Histrom and Steve Simon, but at the convention Histrom conceded to Simon before the first ballot tally was announced. This then seemed to be a simple coronation for Simon to be Ritchie’s heir apparent. But against 2 token opponents in the August primary Simon was only able to garner a 43-29-28 plurality, which was by FAR the biggest shocker of the primary election night. The really caused the DFL to reevaluate the race as a whole. All unallocated statewide resources were sent to his camp, and other state wide candidates have been pimping his candidacy on their own campaign trails. Severson is widely considered a strong SoS candidate, having a respectable showing against Ritchie in 2010, but has lagged behind Simon in on this front. I just have a hard time seeing significant enough numbers of Dayton-Franken-Swanson-Otto-Severson voters, but it is possible. If Republicans are able to sneak off with one of the DFL statewide offices this cycle, it will be this race.
Lean D (Lean D)