I really hate cut and paste diaries but I know the author of this piece, written back in April... that would be me, and he approves this message:
First let me state that I do not see the Republicans winning control of the Senate. Yes, Nate Silver and others are touting it as probable but too many obstacles need to be overcome and the GOP has proven very competent at incompetence with Senate races. Note that Team Red has only won the popular congressional vote once since 2004. 1 for 4 and it isn't going to change this year. However the map is dangerous enough that a Republican Senate Majority Leader is within the realm so we have to contemplate it. Here are the Top Five Reasons they should fear it:
ONE: OWNING CONGRESS
Congressional approval has been polling in the low teens (occasionally single digits)
"Yep, I'm shooting for One Percent"
since shortly after Nancy Pelosi gave up the gavel. This makes our Presidents lukewarm polling performance shine. Even today BHO's average approval rate of 43% is triple Congress's 14% average. The only defense that Reds have had regarding those numbers has been that Blues control the Upper House. With a Speaker McConnell, Congressional approval = Republican Approval.
TWO: HAVING TO PASS FUNDING BILLS
In addition to bills to defund Obamacare, congress routinely has to pass Bills that fund the day to day business of the government. Both sides realize that this needs to happen but only the Dems publicly admit to this reality. Republicans have blamed passage of funding bills on Democrats for years. But how do you have a hostage fight with yourself? There will be no Blue offers to counter but the POTUS can then veto anything that isn't to his liking. Every budget resolution and debt ceiling hike will become a Republican threat to shutter the government with a President who is not running in 2016. We've seen how poisonous that pill is.
THREE: PASSING ACTUAL LEGISLATION
This scenario would theoretically make passage of popular policy more likely. No big progressive ideas will come out of this congress but small practical deals on the edges can slip through if it is coming from two Red houses. Universal gun background checks, for example, could come up as a "Green-washing" bill. Everybody likes the idea, even gun owners, but it dies annually just because the GOP won't give us lefties a win. Shoot off your nose to spite my face. At the end of the day, you have the President signing a bill and wingnuts becoming more and more disenfranchised. Meanwhile you will have bills getting a high profile veto daily that highlight the current Red insanity. A personhood bill would probably get to Obama's desk sooner than later.
FOUR: ENDLESS NOMINATION FIGHTS
Make no mistake, regardless of who gets nominated, each and every one of Obama's choices for Supreme Court or District Of Columbia Dog Catcher will be dragged through mud before being kicked out of committee. This will become a two year stretch of obstruction that cannot be equivocated or rationalized by even the most jaded of Villagers.
FIVE: PRESIDENT CLINTON WITH A FULL BLUE CONGRESS
Each of the above reasons merely inflicts pain on the American people
and embarrassment on the Republican Party, two afflictions to which the Modern Party of Cruz prove time and time again not to give two shits about. However another logical, perhaps inevitable result of taking over the Senate in 2014 would be a sweeping victory for Hillary Clinton and Congressional Dems in 2016. With the above four factors working against them the GOP would have no hope of improving their image. Fickle "Third Way"ers would see a Dem White House as a necessary antidote to the Republican block in the Houses. Dems partisans would have the kind of fire in their bellies they haven't seen since 2008. Speaker Pelosi, Leader Reid and President Hillary Rodham "Mutherfuckin" Clinton would have two years at a minimum to ram through everything on their wish lists.
As the Party of Faith, Republicans should get on their knees each day and pray for Senators Nunn and Grimes and Leader Reid in 2015. That, is their only short term salvation.
I'm not happy about yesterday but do you think this regime really didn't need shook up? Now that this deal is done, let's think clearly. What would have been accomplished over the next two years with Harry Reid at the helm... nothing legislatively and little progress on judicial nominations. With Captain Mitch and his Ass Clown Posse you can expect an occasional signable Bill and far fewer holds on moderate judicial nominations. Expect the President to be MORE activist rather than less because he can. "Embattled" POTUS is always better than "Ineffective" POTUS.