US House net change by party, click through for full size
With nearly every race for the new Congress decided, I have compiled some key stats about the new 114th Congress and created a Google Docs guide to the 535 members and the districts or states they represent. For each constituency I have listed the 2014 and 2012 election results, the 2012 and 2008 presidential results calculated by Daily Kos Elections, 2010 census demographics, as well as some basic demographic information about each member such as age, religion, the year first elected, and a pronunciation guide which I have found surprisingly helpful as someone whose news consumption is almost all through reading. Head below the fold for a preview of this guide, along with some charts and maps of some basic chamber-wide demographic stats like gender and race plus the remaining members who defected on past major votes such as Obamacare.
Let's start with the guide itself. Member names are shaded by the party they represent, while the congressional election results are presented by overall vote share and two-party vote only. The winner's vote share is shaded, while the vote totals are given as well. Pronunciation is spelled phonetically as well as according to the International Phonetic Alphabet for linguistics enthusiasts, as transcribed from their campaign ad disclaimers. The district column and the header rows are fixed so you can easily follow which numbers are what as you scroll over the page. The Senate has its own page with a similar format. Until the results are finalized, the 2014 House results are from the invaluable popular vote tracker compiled by the Cook Political Report. I will update the guide's election results frequently, as well as update the district demographics and member biographical data as they become available. So how about the new Congress itself? Starting with the Senate, the map below shows the party caucus to which each of the two members per state belong, with split delegations in purple, while the chart presents some key stats.
Republicans hold 54 seats to the Democrats' 46 (including two nominal independents). Just five Democrats sit in Romney states while 11 Republicans serve in Obama states. Women remain at their highest share ever, but it's still a shamefully low 20 percent. Racial and ethnic minorities are at a relative high too, but still far too low at six percent while in a rarity there are an equal number from each party. Finally, only 25 senators are not heterosexual, white men. The median age in the Senate will be 61 with the youngest member Tom Cotton (R-AR) at 37 years old and the oldest member Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) at age 81. Perhaps most astounding is how many senators will have served fewer than the six years of a full term at a whopping 47 percent, with the majority of Republican senators having served less than a full term!
Moving on to the House, Republicans hold a total 247 to 188 Democrats shown in the map above, resulting in a party balance of 57 percent Republican to 43 percent Democratic (a margin that owes no small thanks to gerrymandering). This makes for the largest Republican majority since 1928 when the party won 270 seats, although they came nearly as close with 246 seats in 1946, a year that saw two young freshmen elected named Jack Kennedy and Richard Nixon.
Thanks to two-year terms, the House has far fewer members than the Senate who have served less than one full term, but a similar 49 percent of the chamber or 212 members will have served less than a full six years, including 57 percent of Republicans. Above I've mapped out the new members by party and with all these maps, districts in the palest colors indicate members of that party who fit the relevant demographic. Here, those in their first term are in the palest color, members Frank Guinta and Bob Dold(!) who served previous terms in medium red, and all other members in solid red or blue. In total there are 17 Democrats and 44 Republicans who will be new members this session.
While ticket-splitting is on the decline and the correlation between presidential and congressional results is at a relatively historic high, there are still a fair amount of members who represent districts carried by the other party's presidential ticket in 2012. In total, five Democrats and 26 Republicans sit in these hostile districts. By presidential performance, Bob Dold(!) holds the bluest district of any Republican at 58-41 Obama, while Collin Peterson holds the reddest district (and most conservative voting record) of any Democrat at 54-44 Romney.
The House also has a record number of women at 84 total, but just as with the Senate that roughly 1/5th proportion is still far too low. In both chambers women are very disproportionately Democratic and in the House they make up more than three times as much of the Democratic caucus than the Republican caucus.
In large part due to Voting Rights Act-mandated majority-minority districts, the House has a much higher proportion of members who are something other than non-Hispanic whites than the Senate at nearly 1/5th. Also unlike the Senate, these members are overwhelmingly Democratic and make up 39 percent of the Democratic caucus compared to just four percent of the Republican one.
The last demographic category is members who are openly LGBT, who unsurprisingly represent a far smaller proportion of the House than the general population with just six members, all of whom are Democrats, down from a peak of seven last session.
This final demographic map shows all of the members who are something other than heterosexual, non-Hispanic white men. This is the clear majority of the Democratic caucus at 111 members and 59 percent, while for Republicans it's just 30 members or 12 percent. Just one seat shy of a majority of the House itself consists of straight, white, Republican men with only 32 percent of the total being women, minorities, or LGBT. The median age in the House will be 57 years old with the youngest member Elise Stefanik (R-NY-21) at age 30 and the oldest member John Conyers (D-MI-13) at age 85. Conyers will also be the longest-serving member of either house of Congress, having been first elected in 1964.
This last chart shows the remaining number of House members who defected from the party line on high-profile votes from the 2009-2010 session and is indicative of just how decimated the Democratic caucus has become since then and how Republican party unity is very high. Starting chronologically by vote we have: The stimulus—Passed 244 to 188 with zero Republicans in favor and 11 Democratic opposed. Of those defectors, just two remain, Collin Peterson (MN-07) and Jim Cooper (TN-05). In the Senate only Susan Collins remains of the three Republicans in favor. Cap and Trade—Passed 219 to 212 with eight Republicans in favor and 44 Democrats opposed. Of those Republicans just four remain: Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02), Chris Smith (NJ-04), Leonard Lance (NJ-07), and Dave Reichert (WA-08), while Mark Kirk (IL-10) was elected to the Senate. Among the Democratic no votes, only five remain: Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Jim Costa (CA-16), Bill Foster (IL-11), Pete Visclosky (IN-01), and Peter DeFazio (OR-04). Stupak-Pitts Amendment—Passed 240 to 194 with zero Republicans opposed and a staggering 64 Democrats in favor. Of that number only 12 remain: Jim Costa (CA-16), Sanford Bishop (GA-02), Dan Lipinski (IL-03), Richie Neal (MA-01), Stephen Lynch (MA-08), Collin Peterson (MN-07), Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Tim Ryan (OH-13), Mike Doyle (PA-14), Jim Langevin (RI-02), Jim Cooper (TN-05), and Henry Cuellar (TX-28). Notably, Marcy Kaptur is the only Democratic woman in Congress opposed to abortion rights. Obamacare - Passed 219 to 212 with zero Republicans in favor and and 34 Democrats opposed. Only three of these remain: Dan Lipinski (IL-03), Stephen Lynch (MA-08), and Collin Peterson (MN-07). Notably, Lipinski and Lynch both hold safe districts at the time, and both should be at the top of any Democratic primary target list for both this and other notable defections. Dodd-Frank—Passed 237 to 192 with three Republicans in favor and 19 Democrats opposed. Of the Republicans only Walter Jones (NC-03) remains. Among the Democrats just four are still there: Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Jim Cooper (TN-05), and Henry Cuellar (TX-28). In the Senate one Democrat and Republican each defected, but neither remains in the Senate today. Don't Ask Don't Tell Repeal—Passed 250 to 175 with 15 Republicans in favor and 15 Democrats opposed. Of these Republicans only four remain: Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Dave Reichert (WA-08). Of the Democrats the sole member is Collin Peterson (MN-07). In the Senate Joe Manchin was the only Democratic senator to vote against cloture and he still serves in the chamber. Six Republicans voted for cloture and only three remain: Lisa Murkowski (AK), Mark Kirk (IL), and Susan Collins (ME), while Richard Burr (NC) voted against cloture, but cravenly voted for repeal only after a filibuster failed and thus deserves no credit.