Okay, so it's time for me to eat some crow.
Many of you have argued that Warren should run in 2016 and for months I have respectfully disagreed with you.
I resisted, thinking it would be best for Warren to stay in the Senate, and use her soap box in the senate to highlight the issues of income inequality as well as the fact that Wall Street is ripping us off.
But after the events that have played out in the House and Senate this week, I am now convinced Warren needs to run in 2016, regardless of who does or does not run. I have totally bought in to this idea this morning, even going as far as buying my Warren in 2016 bumper sticker to affix to my car. It's clear that our party's leaders, Reid, Schumer, Clinton, and President Obama are in bed with Wall Street so it's time for a full frontal assault in 2016.
Now, I am officially as of this morning a Warren in 2016 supporter for all the obvious reason - her stance on the issues. Now, some will argue that it isn't important that she run and win, and I get that - but it really is going to be difficult to pull off a win but lets go down fighting. For me, it's really about standing up for what I think is important and what direction I think the Democratic party should be moving in. And that fight should be fought in the 2016 primaries and caucuses. But it's also about moving the eventual nominee to the left on these issues. And in order to do so, we need progressives to get elected as delegates to the national convention and fight for the issues we feel should be represented in the party platform.
The first thing we need is a I'm Ready for Elizabeth movement and right now, it looks like MoveOn.org is going to fill that void as they have started an effort to draft Warren into the race, which their members approved last week, and Democracy for America is asking it's members to join the draft movement. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee has already begun organizing with local activists in early-voting states to promote the “Warren wing” with progressive Democrats. The PCCC announced that they deployed a Democratic organizer to meet with local Democratic Party leaders, county chairs, union leaders, elected officials, and PCCC activists in New Hampshire to begin organizing a local coalition ahead of 2016. MoveOn.org is spending a million dollars on the efforts and is in the process of setting up offices in Iowa to draft Warren into the race and apparently will do so in New Hampshire as well. So if you are a member of any of these groups, get out there and help them get this movement growing if you can.
So, we have groups in both Iowa and New Hampshire working. In Iowa, we need all progressives to file to run as delegates. Now, I am not sure if in Iowa, you can run as a delegate for someone who has not declared their candidacy, and perhaps someone from Iowa can tell u that. But, if you can't, we need everyone to file as uncommitted delegates and get elected through the multi-step process in Iowa. The goal here is to get as many uncommitted delegates elected to the national convention as possible.
Iowa
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 37.6%, John Edwards 29.7%, Hillary Clinton 29.5%, Bill Richardson 2.1%, Joe Biden 0.9%, Chris Dodd 0.0%
In Iowa, Obama dominated precinct caucuses in and around cities like Des Moines. And in precinct caucuses held around places like Drake University, Obama destroyed Clinton in these caucuses. Special emphasis needs to be placed on activating college students throughout the state to run as uncommitted delegates and that shouldn't be difficult considering Warren's view on student loans. Who else to target in Iowa? Thoughts?
I also wonder if Warren's brand of economic populism and railing against economic inequality and Wall Street might play well in a lot of economically distressed small towns across Iowa, but especially in small towns in south central and southeastern Iowa, where Clinton performed well in 2008 as many caucus goers in these towns are older. Thoughts?
The next step is New Hampshire and it's a bit trickier. Do you run a massive write in campaign for Warren or do you do the same thing we do in Iowa - vote uncommitted in hopes of getting Warren supporters elected as uncommitted delegates to the national convention? Thoughts?
New Hampshire
Democratic Primary Results: Hillary Clinton 39.2%, Barack Obama 36.4%, John Edwards 16.9%, Bill Richardson 4.6%, Dennis J. Kucinich 1.4%
The next group of states is a no brainer - caucus states. And this is where we can all have a lot of fun. Do you remember this? I sure do!
At a small closed-door fundraiser after Super Tuesday, Sen. Hillary Clinton blamed what she called the "activist base" of the Democratic Party -- and MoveOn.org in particular -- for many of her electoral defeats, saying activists had "flooded" state caucuses and "intimidated" her supporters, according to an audio recording of the event obtained by The Huffington Post.
"Moveon.org endorsed [Sen. Barack Obama] -- which is like a gusher of money that never seems to slow down," Clinton said to a meeting of donors. "We have been less successful in caucuses because it brings out the activist base of the Democratic Party. MoveOn didn't even want us to go into Afghanistan. I mean, that's what we're dealing with. And you know they turn out in great numbers. And they are very driven by their view of our positions, and it's primarily national security and foreign policy that drives them. I don't agree with them. They know I don't agree with them. So they flood into these caucuses and dominate them and really intimidate people who actually show up to support me."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
Of course, Hillary was right about moveon members flooding these states for Obama - but she was dead wrong about intimidation - these were just the desperate words of a candidate who realized she could actually lose the nomination - and lose she did.
I tried to find the audio of Clinton saying all of this bit I could not locate it.
Clinton clearly has issues in caucus states because Democratic Party activists are clearly outnumbered by members of various groups like moveon.org, etc. These are the states we really need to turn out folks to run as uncommitted delegates and dominate the county caucuses. Here is a list of those states and and the results from 2008:
Nevada
Democratic Caucus Results: Hillary Clinton 50.7%, Barack Obama 45.2%, John Edwards 3.8%
South Carolina
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 55.4%, Hillary Clinton 26.5%, John Edwards 17.6%
Alaska
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 74%, Hillary Clinton 25%
Colorado
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 67%, Hillary Clinton 32%
Idaho
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 80%, Hillary Clinton 17%
Kansas
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 74%, Hillary Clinton 26%
Minnesota
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 67%, Hillary Clinton 32%
New Mexico
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 48%, Hillary Clinton 48%
North Dakota
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 61%, Hillary Clinton 37%
Nebraska
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 68%, Hillary Clinton 32%
Washington
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 68%, Hillary Clinton 31%
Maine
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 59%, Hillary Clinton 40%
District of Columbia
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 75%, Hillary Clinton 24%
Hawaii
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 76%, Hillary Clinton 24%
Wyoming
Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama 61.4%, Hillary Clinton 37.8%
If folks turn out at these caucuses and support uncommitted delegates, we could again dominate many of these same states, with perhaps the exceptions of South Carolina.
And Nevada and New Mexico could be difficult to dominate with an uncommitted slate of delegates but that is another issue - how to compete against Clinton in states in the south with large AA populations who vote in caucuses and primaries and out west in states with large latino populations who vote in primaries and caucuses. I'll cover these issues in a second diary, as well as how to go forward in primary states, many of them the large states on the west coast, the northeast, and the industrial mid-west.
In the meantime, purchase your bumper sticker online, start talking to friends and family and get active in many of these progressive groups who are pushing this movement forward.
One last thing - it's important to watch the progress of groups like Moveon.org, PCCC, etc., to track what they are doing. If there efforts by their members starts paying off in terms of results in places like Iowa, we might need to open our wallets to keep fueling their efforts and I pledge to do that. And keep in mind, we'll be helping to continue growing a grass roots progressive movement.
P.S. The I'm Ready for Hillary folks will be the naysayers with their comments but hopefully we can just ignore them. I really want to hear what everyone has to say about this rather from a positive standpoint, rather than wasting energy rebutting their comments/arguments.