I'm re-posting this because a) it took a hell of a lot of time to compile the posts yesterday and b) because I want to reiterate that I'm sticking to my call from last Friday: 4.5 million QHP selections total through midnight yesterday.
Needless to say, I'm a bit frazzled at the moment.
--Pennsylvania: ACA Medicaid expansion already at 74K households (UPDATED)
--ALASKA: You only have until 10:00pm tonight! (also, special note for 21-year olds)
--Website Performance Roundup: All seems well this morning except Hawaii... (FIXED)
--Tennessee: GOP Gov. officially announces ACA Medicaid expansion
--Kansas: (not) BREAKING: Sam Brownback is a hypocritical jerkface
--Annnnnnd the inevitable deadline extensions begin: CT allows "start by 12/15, finish by 12/19" overtime period; MN bumps deadline out until 12/20
--Massachusetts: Est. 52K QHPs; 84K Medicaid confirmed in 30 days
--California: 91.7K NEW QHP selections in 27 days (at least 184K total)
--California & Vermont join the deadline extension party
--Connecticut: 13K new QHPs, 39K new Medicaid as of 11/12
--District of Columbia: 1,413 QHPs to date
--Hawaii: 1,500 "new" (?) QHPs as of 12/05
--Estimate Reminder: 12/12 Totals: 2.32M (HCgov) / 3.10M (National); 12/15 Totals: 3.38M (Hcgov) / 4.50M (Total)
It's been a crazy day, and there have been some major developments: California, Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont all announced last-minute deadline extensions of various types for January 1st coverage. In addition, I received an unexpected bounty of enrollment data drops (either partial or complete) from California, Connecticut, DC, Hawaii and Massachusetts. On top of all that, there was big Medicaid news out of Pennsylvania and Tennessee.
So, after this massive information overload, have I changed my projections at all? Well, I may still adjust my calls for future milestones, but I'm sticking to my guns for Week 4 (December 12th) and Deadline Day (December 15th):
--Through last Friday (12/12), I still believe cumulative QHP selections for HC.gov were 2.32 Million
--Through last Friday (12/12), I still believe cumulative QHP selections nationally were 3.10 Million
--Through 12/15, I still believe cumulative QHP selections for HC.gov were 3.38 Million
--Through 12/15, I still believe the cumulative QHP selections nationally were 4.50 Million
The biggest unknown still remains the question of how many of the 6.7 million existing QHP enrollments will be "autorenewed" tonight, as well as how those will be recorded (my 7.4M plot point on The Graph assumes that all autorenewals for the states sticking with today's deadline will be added into the record tomorrow, but for all I know they won't be officially added until January 1st, or they'll be phased in by state or something. Anyway, it'll be interesting to see how that all plays out.
After that, the big questions will be a) how skillful the exchange systems/personnel are at avoiding double-counting, double-billing or inadvertant cancellations, and b) how much of a surge there will be in mid-February.
Those are discussions for another day, however. From where I stand, I'm reasonably confident that as of midnight tonight, total QHP selections are will reach over 56% of the 8.02 million cumulative they reached on April 19th, 2014 during the first open enrollment period.
In addition, I should note that the deadline for January 1st coverage has now passed in 39 states +DC, but there's still time in the other 11...