NY Times:
President Obama’s decision on Wednesday to radically shift United States policy toward Cuba is the latest and most striking example of a president unleashed from the hesitancy that characterized much of his first six years in office.
The announcement, made in a speech to the nation from the Cabinet Room of the White House, follows similar decisions by Mr. Obama in recent weeks to defy Republicans on immigration, climate change policy, the regulation of the Internet and negotiations with Iran.
Kevin Drum:
So how have things been going for our bored, exhausted, and disengaged president? He's been acting pretty enthusiastic, energized, and absorbed with his job, I'd say. Let us count the things he's done since the November 4th midterm elections:
And, yeah, count the Cuban thaw.
So, this whole 'lame duck' thing is really slowing Obama down eh ?
— @amyewalter
:
U.S. President Barack Obama’s announcement today on plans to normalize relations with Cuba is good news for many constituencies. It’s good for the agribusinesses that stand to sell more food to Cuba. It’s good for Democrats, desperate for a tangible foreign policy success from their president. And of course, it’s good for Alan Gross, the Jewish aid worker arrested in 2009 who warned visitors recently that he feared he would die in his Cuban jail cell.
But Obama’s decision is also very good news for Marco Rubio, the man emerging as the leader of the Republican fight against Obama’s new outreach to Cuba. When Republicans take control of the Senate in the next Congress, Rubio will be in charge of the subcommittee that oversees diplomacy in the Western Hemisphere and would hold nomination hearings for America’s first ambassador to Cuba since 1960.
Wishful thinking on Rubio, who's being eclipsed by Jeb Bush in the GOP demolition derby. Much more likely is that the Cuban moves can't be blocked and Rubio loses even more of his cred than he already has over immigration.
Reuters:
Some Cuban exiles responded with outrage. Others with ecstasy.
News on Wednesday that the United States will restore diplomatic relations with Cuba for the first time in more than a half century divided America's 1.5-million-strong Cuban exile community and threatened to shake up the political landscape in the vital battleground state of Florida.
The reaction in Florida, which is home to about 80 percent of the nation's Cuban-American population, reflects a generational shift in an exile community whose powerful political influence in the United States and steadfast support for the Republican Party helped keep U.S. sanctions on Cuba in place for decades.
But with President Barack Obama's vow to push for "an honest and serious debate" about lifting the United States' long-standing economic embargo against Cuba, many Cuban exiles welcomed the turn, seeing a chance for more engagement with the homeland they left behind.
Generational shift.
More politics and policy below the fold.
Dana Milbank:
But Rubio had more trouble when The Washington Post’s Ed O’Keefe asked the Catholic lawmaker what he would say to Pope Francis, who intervened to encourage negotiations and to receive delegations from the two countries at the Vatican. “My understanding is that the influence that His Holiness had was on the release of [American aid worker Alan] Gross, which I’ve not criticized.”
A statement from the Vatican suggested its interest was broader than that, and the pope offered his “warm congratulations for the historic decision taken by the Governments of the United States of America and Cuba to establish diplomatic relations.”
The senator had a different view from the Holy Father. “In short, what these changes are going to do is they will tighten this regime’s grip on power for decades to come,” he said.
That’s the doctrine of senatorial infallibility, and it usually ends badly for its adherents.
WaPo:
At one point Tuesday, a dollar could buy 79 rubles, an extraordinary level for a currency that stood at 33 rubles to the dollar in January and held mostly steady for much of the year. By midday Wednesday, the currency stood at 66 rubles to the dollar.
Tuesday’s sharp interest rate increase — from 10.5 percent to 17 percent — promised to throw Russia’s economy into a deep recession next year, and it was a sign that Russian policymakers feel they have few options left to fight the crisis.
On Tuesday, top economic officials said, in effect, that Russians would simply have to get used to worsened living standards.
I'm highlighting this because it remains a big deal.
Reuters:
Russia failed to halt the collapse of the ruble on Tuesday, leaving President Vladimir Putin facing a full-blown currency crisis that could weaken his iron grip on power.
A 6.5 percentage point interest rate rise to 17 percent overnight failed to prevent the currency hitting record lows in a "perfect storm" of low oil prices, looming recession and Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.
HuffPost:
Why You Should Care About The Collapsing Russian Ruble
Anxiety about oil prices and Russian instability is starting to rattle U.S. stocks, which have fallen in five of the last seven trading days. Market angst, if it gets carried away or goes on for too long, can hurt economic activity.
The selling in America has been tame so far. Economists expect the U.S. to hold up despite lousy economies all over the world, from Japan to China to Russia to Europe. Lower oil prices will help the economy. But the side effects can be scary.
NY Times:
Sanctions have made it difficult for Russian companies to tap the global markets, and debts are coming due — fast. Russian corporations and banks are scheduled to repay $30 billion in foreign loans this month. Next year, the tab rises to $130 billion.
Large companies, like Gazprom, that earn revenue in other currencies should be in better shape than the rest. Companies without options will have to run to the government for help, putting additional strain on the country’s reserves.
Russia is already putting in place a system to bail out corporations cut off from Western financing by dipping into one of the two sovereign wealth funds. The first applications are being approved now.
“Corporate defaults will happen,” said Lubomir Mitov, chief economist for Europe at the Institute of International Finance. He said the thing to watch was not today or next quarter, but what happened if oil stayed at $50 or $60 a barrel. It is now around $60. “Then the wave of corporate defaults comes in the second half of next year and then it becomes worse over time,” he said.
The ruble also remains a significant wild card.
Michael Tomasky:
Democrats Are Petrified of Defending Government—but They Need to Start
Republicans profit from Americans’ childish hatred of government—and Democrats lose every time by staying silent. Why they need to follow Chuck Schumer’s example and take on the issue.
EJ Dionne:
Schumer says he was surprised that nine paragraphs in a 6,600-word speech got all the attention. He shouldn’t have been.
Many supporters of the ACA — I’m one — were upset that one of the most important Democrats in Washington seemed to discount one of the party’s greatest achievements, especially since the ACA is still under relentless attack. Progressives insisted for decades that leaving so many of our fellow citizens without health insurance was both dysfunctional and immoral. To seize an opportunity to close that gap was the right thing to do.
So what was Schumer up to? I have known him for a long time, and he called me this week to explain his intentions. He wanted to call attention to what he, if not the media and his critics, considered the central point: that Democrats could win in 2016 “if and only if we can convince people that government can work and help restore the middle class to prosperity.”
