It goes against conventional wisdom but 2014 is looking like a Wave election. At least to me. I know my opinion here is in the minority. I know that the general feeling, especially among the chattering class, is that the Dems are in trouble. My perspective diverges from that norm. The following is my explanation of why.
In the last 30 years, there have been several Waves. The Reagan Revolution was a Wave election. Bill Clinton losing the House was a Wave. The most recent Wave was 2006 Ds took back the House and Senate and set themselves up for the 2008 election of Barack Obama. 2010, what most people consider a Wave election, was anything but. And therein lies the problem with the current analysis.
The 2010 cycle wasn't a Wave and it wasn't a Counter Wave. The 2010 election was a backlash. We should have expected that President Obama being the first black President would cause a backlash. In truth, people like me were so enthusiastic; the win was so lopsided, that the idea of a backlash simply didn't occur. However, by the summer of 2009, white rage, and progressive disappointment combined to form a synergistic amplification that built and caused both the aggressive turnout of the GOP and the suppression of core democratic base elements in 2010.
We should have all known better. By the time the August recess was over in 2009 the GOP backlash was in full swing. Middle class white conservatives were screaming, lying, and basically having a meltdown. The Media, caught as flatfooted as the rest of us by this rage and irrationality, covered it incorrectly. They assumed the shouting was about something legitimate, that there was a real crisis here, or a real disagreement.
How many times did you hear people explain this bigoted hate filled meltdown as, "ordinary people with real concerns?" It wasn't. It was racism. It was an attempt to undo the election of the first black President and more importantly, it set the stage for the destruction of the Republican Party.
There are several reasons why I believe the GOP reaction leading to 2010 was about race; the most telling is that they stopped behaving like a political party. Political parties cut deals. Pols always cut deals. If you hold office you want things for your district, you want things for your constituents, and you need things in order to be reelected. That's called politics.
But the GOP didn't want anything. They didn't need anything. All they had to do to make their voters happy was say crazy absurd things about Barack Obama, act in a disrespectful hateful racialized manner, and middle class and poor whites were on board. They would vote for anything, no matter how damaging to themselves their families, their own interests or the nation itself as long as it could be framed as attacking or screwing President Obama. Think about that. That is not politics. So if it isn't politics, what is it?
On the Ds side, we had our own problems with the President. He promised us a lot and instead of taking what he could deliver in the face of unprecedented obstruction, Progressives were angry and complaining. Loudly. The Progressive Left attack the President as much as the conservative Right, and it was inevitable that we were going to lose in 2010. Add to that the lack of fundraising for Ds, I know that I didn't give any money in 09, and by the time '10 rolled around it was almost too late.
The outright hostility from the Right, the inability of the left to mobilize a response, the fact that Progressives were equally frustrated with the President and the pace of his "Change" all created a suppression of turnout -- a lack of enthusiasm from those who did turn out. The Obama Coalition, people have argued, didn't show up in 2010.
But it did, just not in the east where cowardly pols ran from the President and ObamaCare instead of attacking the Right and holding fast. West of the Mississippi, where pols embraced the President, the Obama Coalition swept. Harry Reid was re-elected. Guv Hickenlooper won in CO, as did Senator Bennett (after holding off a primary challenge from the Progressives), Udall won in NM, and the Ds won Guv and Senate in WA, CA as well.
If 2010 had been a Wave rather than a backlash, we would have seen across the board gains not regional ones. We would have seen blue and red states fall, and the Hispanic vote wouldn't have been enough to save Ds.
Two separate things went on in 2010. The Progressives and all their constituencies jumped ship on President Obama. They were unhappy with the pace and they fundamentally misunderstood what happened in 2008. They believed they were the cause of Obama's victory rather than the result of his wild popularity and new coalition of unlikely voters.
The second thing that happened was that black turnout was down about 6% and young people didn't show up. This is typical of midterms, black voting percentage is usually lower when we don't have a Presidential ticket on the ballot, but it was particularly difficult this cycle with white progressives attacking the President and blacks feeling defensive. It was a recipe for disaster.
Disaster is what we got. Blue states like Michigan and Wisconsin – though it is more complicated than Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio – went Red. Governors and legislatures in major industrial states flipped and because it was a census year will remain flipped for at least another cycle or two.
But the top of the tickets in these states are a gift and a curse. While Kasich in Ohio for example, Walker in Wisconsin and Snyder in Michigan are ahead. Kasich by 7 pts., Snyder by around 4, and Walker by around 2, people like Corbett, and Scott are down big and are likely to lose. LePage is in trouble in Maine and if the Dems can put together the money and ground game to fight in Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin – a distinct possibility – there is a chance for a wave election.
What that would mean is that Rs in those states would lose to Ds at all levels, Statewide, Local and Congressional. You see some evidence of the Wave already. During the government shut down, 17 congress people, the magic number in the House, wrote a letter to Boehner telling him to reopen the government. Those Congress people with the exception of one from Utah were all from Blue Northern States. PA, NJ, WI, OH, IL, MI.
Why is that important? Simply because if I were crafting a list of the Rs that were the most vulnerable those are the states with which I would begin. Corbett is wildly unpopular and has very little chance of winning re-election. The size of his loss is potentially catastrophic. Jim Cawley, a safe bet for re-election as Lt. Governor -- so safe he served as vice chair of the platform committee at the 2012 convention (during which he smacked Chairman Bob McDonnell around on issues like abortion and gay marriage)— just drew Joe Paterno's son as a challenger and the father's scandal aside PA still loves Joe Pa.
At a minimum, the challenge will cause Cawley, whom I personally believe to be the architect of Corbett's 2010-surprise victory, to focus more on his own political future and viability than on the Governors. The three top challengers to Corbett raised close to 30 million dollars last year. That is an absurd amount of money just for the privilege or running against a sitting Guv. In fact, it is so much money that people have to wonder if PA is going be a blow out; and if so, is that blow out going to translate into Republican congress people and state legislators losing elections. Already two "safe" R seats have had congress people announce that they aren't seeking reelection. The climate isn't favorable for the GOP in the North, and strong messaging could win the day for Ds.
The same story is playing out in different ways in WI, OH, and MI. More, with the taint of Christiegate, NJ Republicans -- already a tough congressional sell-- are in danger of getter swacked. So too, are FL Rs, as Scott goes down in flames to Charlie Crist. The seemingly constant white murder of black children with no or little repercussions is likely to make FL a massive turnout election, if that happens there is little doubt it would be a Blue Wave.
For the moment, forget the polling. It is too early, and the models being used are too flawed to be solid. Use the Eye Test. Ds are energized in places we shouldn't even be competitive -- GA Guv and Senate, KY where Grimes looks robust and like a winner. Ds swept VA, not just Guv but all statewide elections. Yes, Christie won in a landslide, but if we held that election again today he would lose by double digits. Heck, if Corey Booker had been on the ballot the night he won I'm not sure Christie even wins re-election. And neither was he, which is why Booker was in a multi-million dollar special election a few weeks before the Guv's race.
The Wave, if it comes, will be a push back against GOP corruption, obstinacy, and a concerted effort on their part to dismantle the middle class. It will also, ironically, be because ObamaCare will have started paying dividends in families across the north. The average savings for anyone who actually needs his or her insurance is going to be massive. The average savings for everyone else will, likewise, be substantial. The Rs have spent 5 years lying to people about a program that is going to be very good at fixing potholes. All statewide elections have components of the national but most are about potholes. About the daily lives of ordinary people.
The GOP seems to have forgotten that, buoyed as they have been by a backlash based on race and fear and hatred. You see, 2010 was the zenith of the Obama hate; it was all the fear and loathing the GOP had in them. The last three years and this fourth one are the slow public suicide of the Republican Party. Rs are vulnerable to the argument that all they do is fight for billionaires and denigrate women, minorities, working poor and anyone who doesn't look and sound exactly like them. They have no ideas, no hopes, no dreams, and no ability to lead.
Once people engage in this election, the Ds are going to be able to make a simple argument – fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. The backlash is over, welcome to the Wave.
Peace,
J. Christian Watts
Follow me on Twitter @JCWPolitics